Coronavirus Economics/Finance
- Thread starter groveChuck
- Start date
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Yeah I know I'm just messing with you. But my point is that we should see across the board price increases, at least eventually. It's true that there are an awful lot of commodities on that list that have gone way up, but I'll wait to see what happens later this year and next.
No. A pure money printing scheme is more universal up to a point, whereas an easy credit scheme will lift prices in markets where credit is paramount (cars, housing, financial assets). Furthermore, it's accepted by the media and the masses that rising equities and real estate markets are a good thing without understanding the root causes of the rise. Until both crash and no one, aside of those who've been issuing warning after warning, knows what happens. Which is what happened in 2001, when the Dotcom bubble burst, and 2007 with the Subprime explosion. And it was all "unexpected".
I recommend Hyman Minsky on the topic, a late guru of structured finance.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
What you're talking about seems like not inflation. Although it could become a cause of inflation if the rising prices of those sectors lead everyone else to raise prices.
Rich people own stock and real estate, so of course the media likes it when they go up.
And if they crash, uncle sam will just bail them out. The government has gone to extreme ends to maintain the value of the stock market, or at least prevent a crash.
Private gains, public losses. Socialism for the rich, rugged individualism for the poor
Rich people own stock and real estate, so of course the media likes it when they go up.
And if they crash, uncle sam will just bail them out. The government has gone to extreme ends to maintain the value of the stock market, or at least prevent a crash.
Private gains, public losses. Socialism for the rich, rugged individualism for the poor
LOL, it’s funny coming back here after months, and seeing these endless economics arguments - but then again, my favorite saying in such contexts is the old Santayana one “those who don’t learn history are doomed to repeat it”… and as we can see, very few seem to learn history - or the history of economics in this case, and so are doomed to the same tiresome repeating of the same discredited arguments over and over (and over) again.
And, here we have yet another “INFLATION OMG!!!UNO!!!!” larum, not having apparently learned anything whatsover from the history of inflation in the past decades and decades. Right now, folks are arguing that yes, “there is inflation, OMG!!!” rather like those cultists who predict the world ending on a certain date, and when the world doesn’t end, they make a new date, until, comically, at some point assert that the world in fact has ended and we are all living in a zombie and lizard people alternate reality of a dead world, cause they have no argument left. And so, we have people arguing how many cents this item has moved up and if another one moved down it’s meaingless and how it’s inflation, I tell, you, pinky swear honest on my mother’s grave!
So, how about a reality check? Time to dust off your history books - or for that matter look around the world RIGHT NOW. Those who are claiming that we’re experiencing substantial and measurable inflation - are you completely economically illiterate (don’t answer that - you clearly are), and have you ever even picked up a newspaper? DO YOU KNOW WHAT INFLATION LOOKS LIKE?? Or have zero knowledge of history? You want to see real inflation - Weimar Germany for the win. And countless other examples - since that may seem too far in the past, how about recent Zimbabwe experience, where prices climb by 20,0000% within hours and you need wheelbarrows of cash to buy anything and the raw material of the paper you print your money with is infinitely more valuable than the money it represents - this is not the distant past, this is barely a few years old and btw. already coming back to Zimbabwe as we speak. For that matter, to bring this to the U.S. context of just a few administrations ago - Carter - where you had inflation on the order of 10-13% YOY that you really felt in your wallet!
Trust me, when inflation actually hits, you’ll feel it EVERYWHERE and you won’t need the gymnastics of the folks out there who argue that there IS INFLATION if you only drink a bottle of whisky, squint your eyes really hard and look at the model upside down, then you can glean there in the corner - INFLATION I SWEAR. Nope, when inflation hits, YOU CANNOT MISS IT. You go to a store and all prices have jumped massively, because the money is worth so much less. It’s VISIBLE PRICE INCREASES everywhere almost without exception - it’s not a “maybe if I squint real hard and turn around three times”, like the arguments in this thread. When inflation comes, you’ll KNOW IT, trust me, no arguments necessary - just go look at history!
Absolutely ridiculous.
This is an environment where some prices are going up not due to inherent inflation stemming from currency depreciation, but from non-economic extrinsic factors affecting supply and demand. Bottlenecks in transportation cause supply chains to break down, generating shortages which lead to price increases, not because the dollar is worth less, but because the ships aren’t comming… and if the ships start coming, the prices come down not because the dollar appreciated out of the blue! Chip shortages cause price increases in cars and electronic goods, not because of the dollar being worth less, but because of discrete supply problems at the de-facto duopoly of suppliers TSMC and Samsung. Beef and meat shortages, because COVID restrictions removed workers at meat plants leading to production shortages, not because the dollar is buying less meat in particular. Lumber - same thing… first it went up, then it went down - so what, inflation exploded then imploded, LOL?! But even understanding the basic concept of what inflation is, clearly is beyond the economic illiterates - like understanding price inflation is not the same thing. Prices going up in specific industries are not by themselves any indication whatsoever of the base inflation rate. All that’s good for is for hucksters and ignoramuses and ideological fanatics cherry picking goods baskets to “demonstrate” inflation or deflation or whatever it is they want.
And so it goes, never changing, because ignorance and lack of historical knowledge is never going away either
And, here we have yet another “INFLATION OMG!!!UNO!!!!” larum, not having apparently learned anything whatsover from the history of inflation in the past decades and decades. Right now, folks are arguing that yes, “there is inflation, OMG!!!” rather like those cultists who predict the world ending on a certain date, and when the world doesn’t end, they make a new date, until, comically, at some point assert that the world in fact has ended and we are all living in a zombie and lizard people alternate reality of a dead world, cause they have no argument left. And so, we have people arguing how many cents this item has moved up and if another one moved down it’s meaingless and how it’s inflation, I tell, you, pinky swear honest on my mother’s grave!
So, how about a reality check? Time to dust off your history books - or for that matter look around the world RIGHT NOW. Those who are claiming that we’re experiencing substantial and measurable inflation - are you completely economically illiterate (don’t answer that - you clearly are), and have you ever even picked up a newspaper? DO YOU KNOW WHAT INFLATION LOOKS LIKE?? Or have zero knowledge of history? You want to see real inflation - Weimar Germany for the win. And countless other examples - since that may seem too far in the past, how about recent Zimbabwe experience, where prices climb by 20,0000% within hours and you need wheelbarrows of cash to buy anything and the raw material of the paper you print your money with is infinitely more valuable than the money it represents - this is not the distant past, this is barely a few years old and btw. already coming back to Zimbabwe as we speak. For that matter, to bring this to the U.S. context of just a few administrations ago - Carter - where you had inflation on the order of 10-13% YOY that you really felt in your wallet!
Trust me, when inflation actually hits, you’ll feel it EVERYWHERE and you won’t need the gymnastics of the folks out there who argue that there IS INFLATION if you only drink a bottle of whisky, squint your eyes really hard and look at the model upside down, then you can glean there in the corner - INFLATION I SWEAR. Nope, when inflation hits, YOU CANNOT MISS IT. You go to a store and all prices have jumped massively, because the money is worth so much less. It’s VISIBLE PRICE INCREASES everywhere almost without exception - it’s not a “maybe if I squint real hard and turn around three times”, like the arguments in this thread. When inflation comes, you’ll KNOW IT, trust me, no arguments necessary - just go look at history!
Absolutely ridiculous.
This is an environment where some prices are going up not due to inherent inflation stemming from currency depreciation, but from non-economic extrinsic factors affecting supply and demand. Bottlenecks in transportation cause supply chains to break down, generating shortages which lead to price increases, not because the dollar is worth less, but because the ships aren’t comming… and if the ships start coming, the prices come down not because the dollar appreciated out of the blue! Chip shortages cause price increases in cars and electronic goods, not because of the dollar being worth less, but because of discrete supply problems at the de-facto duopoly of suppliers TSMC and Samsung. Beef and meat shortages, because COVID restrictions removed workers at meat plants leading to production shortages, not because the dollar is buying less meat in particular. Lumber - same thing… first it went up, then it went down - so what, inflation exploded then imploded, LOL?! But even understanding the basic concept of what inflation is, clearly is beyond the economic illiterates - like understanding price inflation is not the same thing. Prices going up in specific industries are not by themselves any indication whatsoever of the base inflation rate. All that’s good for is for hucksters and ignoramuses and ideological fanatics cherry picking goods baskets to “demonstrate” inflation or deflation or whatever it is they want.
And so it goes, never changing, because ignorance and lack of historical knowledge is never going away either
The great state of California, has the lowest rates of COVID deaths, infection and transmission - of any state in the nation:
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.co...ornia-lowest-coronavirus-rate-us-what-to-know
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2021...nations-lowest-coronavirus-transmission-rate/
Why that is, I’m not sure. It can’t just be vaccination rates, because CA vax rates are only slightly higher than Florida, yet Florida is dramatically worse off. Perhaps it is those dreaded mask mandates? Who knows. No question vaccination rates do matter, we see that even from data internal to CA, where counties that have higher vaccination rates have drastically better outcomes:
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2021/0...-between-counties-vaccination-and-case-rates/
But that can’t be the whole story. I honestly don’t know what the answer is - for whatever reason, CA is better off.
What does that tell us? Well, those who like to hate on CA (a national sport among a certain demographic… a demographic that coincidentally is doing massively worse with COVID, LOL!), are having brain explosions right now, because hey, CA is #1 yet again! So those bad, bad CA politicians at least have not managed to make CV-19 worse here - although I personally would not necessarily credit them with being responsible for this good result… what it does tell us is that they didn’t do something to make CA worse than other states, so I guess good on them for that.
Everyone is free to make their own decision about the vax - I know many folks want to enforce vax mandates… I’m opposed. I personally am vaccinated and I’ll take a booster shot and anything else they come up with, and I’m masked and trying to keep safe, but that doesn’t mean I want to tell someone else what to do. Even if getting vaccinated is the right thing to do, as I think, I also think that it’s the price of freedom that we must agree to let folks make their own decision even if it endangers the lives of others, same as first amendment freedom of speech, the price of free speech is that some will be terribly deceived and hurt by lies. Lies are protected by the first amendment (except libel etc.), and I think if people want to make the “wrong” medical decisions, we have to pay the price… otherwise we won’t live in a free society. YMMV.
Meanwhile, CA is #1 - for now. What the future holds, who knows.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.co...ornia-lowest-coronavirus-rate-us-what-to-know
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2021...nations-lowest-coronavirus-transmission-rate/
Why that is, I’m not sure. It can’t just be vaccination rates, because CA vax rates are only slightly higher than Florida, yet Florida is dramatically worse off. Perhaps it is those dreaded mask mandates? Who knows. No question vaccination rates do matter, we see that even from data internal to CA, where counties that have higher vaccination rates have drastically better outcomes:
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2021/0...-between-counties-vaccination-and-case-rates/
But that can’t be the whole story. I honestly don’t know what the answer is - for whatever reason, CA is better off.
What does that tell us? Well, those who like to hate on CA (a national sport among a certain demographic… a demographic that coincidentally is doing massively worse with COVID, LOL!), are having brain explosions right now, because hey, CA is #1 yet again! So those bad, bad CA politicians at least have not managed to make CV-19 worse here - although I personally would not necessarily credit them with being responsible for this good result… what it does tell us is that they didn’t do something to make CA worse than other states, so I guess good on them for that.
Everyone is free to make their own decision about the vax - I know many folks want to enforce vax mandates… I’m opposed. I personally am vaccinated and I’ll take a booster shot and anything else they come up with, and I’m masked and trying to keep safe, but that doesn’t mean I want to tell someone else what to do. Even if getting vaccinated is the right thing to do, as I think, I also think that it’s the price of freedom that we must agree to let folks make their own decision even if it endangers the lives of others, same as first amendment freedom of speech, the price of free speech is that some will be terribly deceived and hurt by lies. Lies are protected by the first amendment (except libel etc.), and I think if people want to make the “wrong” medical decisions, we have to pay the price… otherwise we won’t live in a free society. YMMV.
Meanwhile, CA is #1 - for now. What the future holds, who knows.
Batutta
Major Contributor
Humidity?
EDIT:
After a 2 second google search, seems CA should be doing even worse with regards to its climate-- https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200818094028.htm
Yeah, I knew about the humidity, but climate could still be a factor in a roundabout way - if the humidity is high, people in Florida will not go outside, so that won’t matter; instead, they’ll stay inside in groups and that’s where the transmission takes place. Because the climate in CA is more conducive to holding events outside, perhaps that lowers the spread compared to having to be cooped up. But who knows, I’m just totally guessing here.
Honestly, it may actually be down to masks and distancing. I know here in CA most folks are pro-mask and pretty paranoid, and the anti folks are limited to rural areas. In Florida, it seems more people are anti-mask, and there are more rural areas where the “anti” feelings run high. But who knows, honestly, it’s just speculation.
Anyhow, to be totally frank, I kinda suspect it very well might be all down to luck, and soon enough the luck will turn and CA will face a huge wave in the fall, so I wouldn’t be tooting our horn too loud at the moment.
Stay safe, folks. This thing might be around for the long term.
Honestly, it may actually be down to masks and distancing. I know here in CA most folks are pro-mask and pretty paranoid, and the anti folks are limited to rural areas. In Florida, it seems more people are anti-mask, and there are more rural areas where the “anti” feelings run high. But who knows, honestly, it’s just speculation.
Anyhow, to be totally frank, I kinda suspect it very well might be all down to luck, and soon enough the luck will turn and CA will face a huge wave in the fall, so I wouldn’t be tooting our horn too loud at the moment.
Stay safe, folks. This thing might be around for the long term.
“Might?”
it was created to be highly virulent, and its being selected over time to evade specific antibodies. This doesn’t ‘end’ until we reach widespread natural immunity, and then its just another ever-evolving endemic disease like cold & flu.
See Scandanavia for more info on how
Stay free, folks
it was created to be highly virulent, and its being selected over time to evade specific antibodies. This doesn’t ‘end’ until we reach widespread natural immunity, and then its just another ever-evolving endemic disease like cold & flu.
See Scandanavia for more info on how
Stay free, folks
Maybe not mask related specifically, however I know the experience we have had in Australia has really come down to attitudes of individuals to follow guidelines or not. In saying that however in my city, we have lived through the strictest lockdowns in the world? Last 18 months has been very difficult.
Matt Gottshalk
Resident Preditor
Yeah the videos of the police crackdowns and heavy-handedness have been very disturbing, to say the least.
Batutta
Major Contributor
This is the only way it's really going to end, when therapeutic drugs are available at every pharmacy. They won't eradicate the virus but that's not likely at this point, and there's no money in disease cures for big pharma anyway. But if these drugs can reduce or eliminate the worst outcomes for Covid we may get back to some semblance of normal. Promising early news from Merck, other drugs are coming.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/merck...aths-1.6196007
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/merck...aths-1.6196007
Liam Hall
Veteran
Sure, but 700,000+ deaths is touch more disturbing. Perspective…
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Middle ground? does saying that make me a ghoul?
Well, as I speculated in my previous post on this thread, it has come to pass: now things have flipped, with Florida having been worst for COVID rates and CA being the best in the nation to now CA having more cases than Florida:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/c...cases-than-florida-texas—heres-why/ar-AAQAVh8
Strict mandates may have an effect, but clearly the inherent patterns of waves of infection are stronger in effect than our countermeasures. Florida is still much worse for overall deaths compared to CA, but this shows that the way the virus spreads in approx. two month waves and peaks is a very powerful effect.
Personally, I just had my booster shot, and I of course follow the mask mandate in stores, but I have not worn the mask outside while just walking around. I’m pretty sick of this pandemic, but losing hope that we’ll go back to normal any time soon.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/c...cases-than-florida-texas—heres-why/ar-AAQAVh8
Strict mandates may have an effect, but clearly the inherent patterns of waves of infection are stronger in effect than our countermeasures. Florida is still much worse for overall deaths compared to CA, but this shows that the way the virus spreads in approx. two month waves and peaks is a very powerful effect.
Personally, I just had my booster shot, and I of course follow the mask mandate in stores, but I have not worn the mask outside while just walking around. I’m pretty sick of this pandemic, but losing hope that we’ll go back to normal any time soon.