Coronavirus Economics/Finance
- Thread starter groveChuck
- Start date
The article is from late June, but is based on data from mid-April by and his “25%” is stated as a guess. I don’t see that as grounds for falling skies.
Lockdowns never stop diseases, they just delay them. As we see, states that are spiking after the initial wave have more info and better outcomes than the first sad results in the tri state area. They might have fared better if China had been more forthcoming with information. The spikes happening throughout the nation are simply in places that the lockdowns delayed.
There’s no real stopping this, other than through reaching the HIT through exposure of the young and fit or widespread vaccinations. It’s on a worldwide tour forevermore, just like every other pandemic virus.
Lockdowns never stop diseases, they just delay them. As we see, states that are spiking after the initial wave have more info and better outcomes than the first sad results in the tri state area. They might have fared better if China had been more forthcoming with information. The spikes happening throughout the nation are simply in places that the lockdowns delayed.
There’s no real stopping this, other than through reaching the HIT through exposure of the young and fit or widespread vaccinations. It’s on a worldwide tour forevermore, just like every other pandemic virus.
...except of course for the millionish that will die from the combo of suicide, overdose, undiagnosed other diseases, civil unrest, and poverty brought on by unsustainable shutdowns. I’m making hay by being one of the few in my area still willing to work, and socking it away into savings and gardening. I plead with anyone spending their dwindling unemployment while hoping for more government help to get wise... we’re reaching the point of no return on an enduring worldwide depression. Be an ant, not a grasshopper.
There are no perfect solutions, only trade offs.
There are no perfect solutions, only trade offs.
One more discussion I fumbled across, by folks who are far more intelligent than I (who are legion)
https://m.facebook.com/tommy.megremis/posts/3488798674486739
https://m.facebook.com/tommy.megremis/posts/3488798674486739
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Now you're just waving numbers around. Show me the model that suggests 1 million will die from shutdowns.
Re: government help, Trump himself just ordered an extra $400/week unemployment thru Christmas.
There's no reason the shutdowns need to lead to a depression. What we do is borrow the money and pay it back later. It's a good investment because people dying or having huge medical bills + people losing cars and homes from lost income will have a major depressing effect on the economy and cost us more money in the long-term
A million lives is worth $15 trillion to economists
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Sure. The New York state antibody study concluded that the actual mortality rate was 0.7%. Let's assume that half the US got covid if it ran its course - that would mean 1.155 million dead in the US.
There are also excess mortality counts that indicate the covid deaths may be 28% higher than reported. (And I'm guessing they might be higher than that because some mortality causes such as car crashes go down during lockdown.)
I mean come on...we've had almost 200k officially dead already with our lockdown strategy
That’s a very old study based on old data skewed by insufficient testing and lopsided elderly infection from bad local public health policies. The CDC is showing far different numbers based on more recent data. As of June(?) their estimate was 0.26-0.4. Looks like it may have revised down even more. Also remember that not everyone will get the virus.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
I know people want to panic, but we live with worse diseases every day.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
I know people want to panic, but we live with worse diseases every day.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Amigo, the best estimate IFR in the link you posted is .65%. And let's remember that if too many people get sick at once, that number goes up for lack of treatment.
Plus, some people survive but lose limbs. They rack up $50k hospital bills.
And my 1 million death estimate was based on 50% infections in the US, not everyone.
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You’re off by a factor of 10, but I get where you’re coming from and figure that’s just a mistype. Keep in mind that CDC table is from over a month ago... and since then, confirmed cases have at least doubled, but deaths have only risen by about a third. That'll significantly impact the estimated IFR.
Sweden did very little and does not have anywhere near ~35,000 deaths. They hurt, but chose to take it all as a single swift kick to the jimmies. We’re opting for having ours slowly crushed in a vice. We’ll both eventually end up with sore balls, but while Sweden groaned and went back to work, we called in sick due to balls being stuck in the aforementioned vice.
ps. have a good night, best to you and yours, and thanks for having a basic discussion like an adult human being (for some sad reason I always feel like I need to point that out with people lately).
One more bit of reading FWIW... in true centrist libertarian fashion, there's a good possibility we may both be right
https://reason.com/2020/07/23/there-is-more-than-one-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate/
Sweden did very little and does not have anywhere near ~35,000 deaths. They hurt, but chose to take it all as a single swift kick to the jimmies. We’re opting for having ours slowly crushed in a vice. We’ll both eventually end up with sore balls, but while Sweden groaned and went back to work, we called in sick due to balls being stuck in the aforementioned vice.
ps. have a good night, best to you and yours, and thanks for having a basic discussion like an adult human being (for some sad reason I always feel like I need to point that out with people lately).
One more bit of reading FWIW... in true centrist libertarian fashion, there's a good possibility we may both be right
https://reason.com/2020/07/23/there-is-more-than-one-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate/
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ahalpert
Major Contributor
Yeah typo, fixed it
Even in Sweden, they closed the schools, banned gatherings of over 50 people, and they banned visiting retirement homes.
The Swedes also individually cut their social interactions by 70% voluntarily
If you're suggesting that we dont need a total lockdown to manage the pandemic, I agree. If you're suggesting we should take no precautions or restrictions, I disagree.
And look - I've been taking all the work I can get except for one job I canceled in March when I was possibly sick with covid. (You couldn't get a test back then to save your life.)
Even in Sweden, they closed the schools, banned gatherings of over 50 people, and they banned visiting retirement homes.
The Swedes also individually cut their social interactions by 70% voluntarily
If you're suggesting that we dont need a total lockdown to manage the pandemic, I agree. If you're suggesting we should take no precautions or restrictions, I disagree.
And look - I've been taking all the work I can get except for one job I canceled in March when I was possibly sick with covid. (You couldn't get a test back then to save your life.)
ahalpert
Major Contributor
It's also just not true that government restrictions are causing all the depressed economic activity.
I've got a number of interviews to shoot that were postponed in March. I thought they would come back once they were permitted (which happened about a month ago). None of those interviews have rescheduled yet and the best explanation I can figure is that most of these subjects are rich and they're very self-protective. Nobody's saying they can't do it. They just dont wanna.
Same goes for movie theaters, restaurants, hotels and air travel. There's bound to be some hit to demand.
Especially since baby boomers have so much of the country's wealth and they're high-risk.
You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink
I've got a number of interviews to shoot that were postponed in March. I thought they would come back once they were permitted (which happened about a month ago). None of those interviews have rescheduled yet and the best explanation I can figure is that most of these subjects are rich and they're very self-protective. Nobody's saying they can't do it. They just dont wanna.
Same goes for movie theaters, restaurants, hotels and air travel. There's bound to be some hit to demand.
Especially since baby boomers have so much of the country's wealth and they're high-risk.
You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink
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Run&Gun
Veteran
No pun intended? ; )
ahalpert
Major Contributor
I saw this chart recently. It really highlights how a lot of the economy was only marginally affected by coronavirus issues. It's lucky if you're servicing the functional sectors!
The problem, of course, is that almost every type of filming is a group activity and requires some degree of social concentration...
The problem, of course, is that almost every type of filming is a group activity and requires some degree of social concentration...
I kind of argued that point on some sites. If the restaurants and the movie theaters weren't closed by decrees, the vastly decreased foot traffic would still drive them out of business. There was a family (ribs/burgers) restaurant near me. They first closed for the indoor dining in March and then, about a week later, decided to close for good. And they actually have a patio too!
So, the bigger point is that Covid altered the consumer behavior with or without the state orders and that culled those enterprises that were struggling to begin with.
So, the bigger point is that Covid altered the consumer behavior with or without the state orders and that culled those enterprises that were struggling to begin with.
puredrifting
Major Contributor
Quarantine has also absolutely decimated the trade show industry, worth 34.3 billion dollars per year. Our industry, if you worked in global entertainment, it was worth 100 billion
https://variety.com/2020/film/news/...0-billion-for-the-first-time-ever-1203529990/
All we had to do was isolate ourselves for two or three weeks and this would all have been over. Have everyone stock up on rice and beans, ramen, whatever, pick a date, and sit tight for two weeks. Instead, we go on for months and perhaps years. New Zealand did it (now covid free for 100 days). Why can't we?
Stupid, stupid, stupid.
Stupid, stupid, stupid.
Batutta
Major Contributor
New Zealand just had a spike and shut everything down again.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7270975/new-zealand-coronavirus-outbreak/
It wouldn't have been over, but definitely a lot more manageable.