Coronavirus Economics/Finance

gkantziper said:
What I'm laying out isn't opinion. Look at the data in the chart I included in my first post. That chart shows info less than 24 hours old. We only need to maintain quarantine 'til the line flattens. The Asian countries proved it could be done. We need to do the same. The only reason we haven't gotten the order to do it is an order like that takes leadership and accountability from the highest office and a disregard for near term stock market fluctuations. Maybe before it is too late all the Governors will come to this conclusion - I think ~ 12 states have already mandated some form of "shelter in place" with more to come. Article about each state:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

To put it another way, the Asian countries did strict quarantines and now they can see an end to this. They flattened the curve. Flattening the curve will allow our medical system to deal with the patient load.

Now this is opinion: I think that the Asian populations in the countries on the graph "do what they are told", care about their elderly, fellow man, etc....and the Italians and Americans DON'T care as a whole. This can't be "live free or die" because that won't work out well.
Click to expand...
You are not answering my two questions to you, I repeat them:

1. So explain how we can "get back to our lives" by having a lockdown. What do you think will happen after the lockdown?
2. And why have "hurt" between quotes, the hurt from lockdowns is very real which even $6 trillion of funny money can't fix!

gkantziper said:
Now this is opinion: I think that the Asian populations in the countries on the graph "do what they are told", care about their elderly, fellow man, etc....and the Italians and Americans DON'T care as a whole.
Click to expand...

Italians and Americans don't care as a whole? Glad you say it is your opinion, good to know your opinion!
 
Cary Knoop said:
You are not answering my two questions to you, I repeat them:

1. So explain how we can "get back to our lives" by having a lockdown. What do you think will happen after the lockdown?
2. And why have "hurt" between quotes, the hurt from lockdowns is very real which even $6 trillion of funny money can't fix!



Italians and Americans don't care as a whole? Glad you say it is your opinion, good to know your opinion!
Click to expand...

I'll use less words this time, ha! Let's keep it civil shall we!

What do I think will happen after a lockdown? The curve will flatten, hospitals will have a shot at keeping up with their life saving work. We'll begin to get back to normal life after that. It is going to be a long haul anyway this goes down.

Hurt: We'll be just fine with the trillions. It has to be spent. No choice just like the bailouts in the Great Recession. Hopefully it'll be done as responsibly as possible. We just have to hope companies don't take the money & do stock buybacks and other nefarious acts.

"Italians and Americans don't care as a whole?" well compared to other countries we don't as gauged by the actions of many e.g. kids filling the beaches on spring break to fly home & spread to everyone on the way and at home. Plenty of other examples all over the news, social media, etc.... These people still gathering don't care about anybody other than themselves. (reminds me of someone I won't call out as I don't think you can do politics here?)

I'm guessing you don't agree with me and that is OK. I do hope you are practice social distancing if you aren't a Dr. or Fireman or nurse, etc....if you are I hope you have enough PPE.

Do please explain to me though how you don't think social distancing isn't the one and only answer to this pandemic short of a vaccine that magically gets distributed all over the world and is injected into every human!
 
gkantziper said:
What do I think will happen after a lockdown? The curve will flatten, hospitals will have a shot at keeping up with their life saving work. We'll begin to get back to normal life after that. It is going to be a long haul anyway this goes down.
Click to expand...
OK, so let's image, the lockdown is over, we have a flat curve and now infected Joe Schmoe arrives in a plane to your renewed "back to normal life after a lockdown" city. Now what?

gkantziper said:
Do please explain to me though how you don't think social distancing isn't the one and only answer to this pandemic short of a vaccine that magically gets distributed all over the world and is injected into every human!
Click to expand...
I am all for social distancing but not for "enforcing strict quarantine", there is a difference between those. And no, I do not want to resort to the draconian measures that have been taken (and still are!) in China.

There are three ways to fight this virus:

1. Herd Immunity
2. Our immune system (88% of persons tested (that means the percentage is even higher because: infected > tested) does not need hospitalization, 3% needs ICU care (New York data, which is currently the largest hotspot in the USA))
3. Vaccination, prophylactics and anti-viral medicine

"Hiding in the caves" only slows down the rate of infection it does not avoid infections because eventually, you have to get out!
It seems that many people refuse to accept that fact.
 
Last edited:
Cary Knoop said:
OK, so let's image, the lockdown is over, we have a flat curve and now infected Joe Schmoe arrives in a plane to your renewed "back to normal life after a lockdown" city. Now what?


I am all for social distancing but not for "enforcing strict quarantine", there is a difference between those. And no, I do not want to resort to the draconian measures that have been taken (and still are!) in China.

There are three ways to fight this virus:

1. Herd Immunity
2. Our immune system (88% of persons tested (that means the percentage is even higher because: infected > tested) does not need hospitalization, 3% needs ICU care (New York data, which is currently the largest hotspot in the USA))
3. Vaccination, prophylactics and anti-viral medicine

"Hiding in the caves" only slows down the rate of infection it does not avoid infections because eventually, you have to get out eventually!
It seems that many people refuse to accept that fact.
Click to expand...

1) Herd immunity looks to be a worst cast scenario because so many people will overwhelm hospitals. Again, isolate and flatten the curve.

2) Again, whatever the known stats are we are headed for the same fate as Northern Italy without instituting more stringent "Stay at Home" rules whatever you want to call them.

3) Vaccine(s) that are effective are said to take around a year to develop. I don't know about time to scale and distribute. Nothing based on science has yet to show any value in treatment but hopefully we get something soon.

Draconian measures worked in Asian countries. We have no other humane option. Do I think the gov't will tell everyone to stay at home? Well, not until it is too late but maybe. It has been implemented in a number of places already. Get your groceries delivered. We've had a great experience with Instacart! Nice talking with you.
 
Dvx is quickly becoming the place where we are experts on everything but cameras...
 
gkantziper said:
What I'm laying out isn't opinion. Look at the data in the chart I included in my first post. That chart shows info less than 24 hours old. We only need to maintain quarantine 'til the line flattens. The Asian countries proved it could be done. We need to do the same. The only reason we haven't gotten the order to do it is an order like that takes leadership and accountability from the highest office and a disregard for near term stock market fluctuations. Maybe before it is too late all the Governors will come to this conclusion - I think ~ 12 states have already mandated some form of "shelter in place" with more to come. Article about each state:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

To put it another way, the Asian countries did strict quarantines and now they can see an end to this. They flattened the curve. Flattening the curve will allow our medical system to deal with the patient load.

Now this is opinion: I think that the Asian populations in the countries on the graph "do what they are told", care about their elderly, fellow man, etc....and the Italians and Americans DON'T care as a whole. This can't be "live free or die" because that won't work out well.
Click to expand...

So what happens when you are an employee who loses their job,
can’t pay your rent or mortgage and so literally have nowhere
to ‘hunker down’? What happens if you own a small business
and the government tells you that you MUST close? Maybe they
then follow this up by passing a bill mandating that you pay all
employees two weeks leave. Many small business owners
are using their home as collateral on their business loan so what
happens when they can no longer make payments on the business loan?
It’s not nearly as simple as some make it sound. To ‘hunker down’
you need to have the ability to buy enough food for an extended
stay and have a place to ‘hunker down’ in. Both those things take money.
When you can’t go to your job or have to close your business, paying
for the ability to self quarantine becomes hard. I’m lucky
enough to have a little put away and can self quarantine for a
few weeks but some people are not this lucky.
And at some point before too long I’m going to run out and then
going to work somehow becomes pretty necessary.

And let’s just stay away from stereotyping ‘Italians and American’s’
just as we should avoid stereotyping Asians shall we?. That’s going to
do nothing productive and only cause bad feelings.
 
Last edited:
It was announced that freelancers and gig economy workers will get unemployment benefits as part of the 2 trillion dollar deal.
 
Paul F said:
It was announced that freelancers and gig economy workers will get unemployment benefits as part of the 2 trillion dollar deal.
Click to expand...

It's getting boring for me to always be proven prescient :)... just as I immediately predicted that AB-5 will get amended, so too I couldn't believe that they'd only make W-2 employees eligible for help - and despite all the fears, it seems they will indeed face reality, the fact that tons of Americans work as freelancers, gigs and independents.

Now let's see how soon they'll be forced to restart the economy, because as I keep saying, the economy cannot survive at current levels of restrictions beyond the end of June at the latest, we're talking 90 day CD lockups, April, May, June - because this didn't start until well into March. Fingers crossed.
 
alaskacameradude said:
I’m lucky enough to have a little put away and can self quarantine for a few weeks but some people are not this lucky...
Click to expand...
On the grand macroeconomics scale, central banks "stimulate" the economy by lowering interest rates, thereby giving an additional incentive to borrow and a lesser incentive to save. This is the main reason the US has had about a dozen prolonged recessions - with the first one being in 1919-1921 and the last one in 2008- 2009 - since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913. These recessions are inevitable since, no matter how matter how many credit cards you issue, at some point, you're going to have to pay them back. And now, the debt load is unsustainable at the municipal, state and federal levels too. Of course, the federal government can always print more money but that generally ends up as the Weimar scenario.
 
alaskacameradude said:
So what happens when you are an employee who loses their job,
can’t pay your rent or mortgage and so literally have nowhere
to ‘hunker down’? What happens if you own a small business
and the government tells you that you MUST close? Maybe they
then follow this up by passing a bill mandating that you pay all
employees two weeks leave. Many small business owners
are using their home as collateral on their business loan so what
happens when they can no longer make payments on the business loan?
It’s not nearly as simple as some make it sound. To ‘hunker down’
you need to have the ability to buy enough food for an extended
stay and have a place to ‘hunker down’ in. Both those things take money.
When you can’t go to your job or have to close your business, paying
for the ability to self quarantine becomes hard. I’m lucky
enough to have a little put away and can self quarantine for a
few weeks but some people are not this lucky.
And at some point before too long I’m going to run out and then
going to work somehow becomes pretty necessary.

And let’s just stay away from stereotyping ‘Italians and American’s’
just as we should avoid stereotyping Asians shall we?. That’s going to
do nothing productive and only cause bad feelings.
Click to expand...

You are correct about stereotyping and I shouldn't have made those generalities. I apologize. Please don't take my words as racist. I'm an American. I have no ill will or thoughts about Italians or Asians or anyone affected by this virus. What is happening around the world is very sad. I wish everyone the best of luck making their way through this situation. The chart I posted yesterday shows the results of how different countries have fared and I just wanted to make the point we should emulate the countries with the greatest success. Again, apologies for anything perceived as stereotyping. I didn't mean any ill will or malice. If you knew me outside the words of this thread you'd forgive and move on to productive conversation. I welcome it. Take care all.
 
groveChuck said:
We could use a few laughs... a few nurses, too. I hear they're attracted to masked men... :grin:
Click to expand...

Last Tuesday I am walking out of Publix, as they're closing for the day. The automated doors are shut, the night manager has to open the door manually with a key. Most of the signs are turned off too and, of course, it's already dark outside. Suddenly, I hear, "Hello, DLD" (well, it wasn't DLD but it was in Russian anyway). I am startled a little, especially because while I hear the female voice, I can't see who it is and have no idea how she knows my name. As both of us edge closer to the exit door, we get a little better illuminated. The lady says to me, "This is Lena. We have met here about a month ago. You don't recognize me at all, do you?". I look at her for a second, then reply, "You know, when we met here a month ago, you weren't wearing the face mask".
 
Cary Knoop said:
You are not answering my two questions to you, I repeat them:

1. So explain how we can "get back to our lives" by having a lockdown. What do you think will happen after the lockdown?
2. And why have "hurt" between quotes, the hurt from lockdowns is very real which even $6 trillion of funny money can't fix!



Italians and Americans don't care as a whole? Glad you say it is your opinion, good to know your opinion!
Click to expand...

I was thinking about our conversation from a week ago. Just wondering if you have changed your opinion?

I'll leave this here. https://video.foxnews.com/v/6146422347001#sp=show-clips

(I don't think Feaux News will have that Dr. on their network again since he didn't say what they wanted to hear, ha!)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top