Coronavirus Economics/Finance

[Run&Gun]

Like we discussed in the other thread re: AB-5, the intent was good, but the execution was very poor, it needed and will be amended. The problem was that genuine freelancers, got wrongly swept up in this - this should not have happened and hopefully will get reversed. The intent was to fix the situation where companies were employing people without choice and just classifying them as "freelance" to avoid paying them benefits. Anyhow, that's water under the bridge at this point.

My beef right now is that Congress is being completely unrealistic regarding how a great number of Americans work - as freelancers, independent contractors, part timers etc. It is stupid to just give relief to employees - that shafts a ton of folks through no fault of their own, and privileges large companies again. But guess who pays the lobbyists and makes campaign contributions - big companies. Now freelancers, like so many folks on this board are out cold, because the politicians only respond to their corporate donors. This is messed up.

As voters we should all put the politicians on notice: you work for us, and you have to represent all people, not just the lobbyists special interests. I'm not a freelancer, so this doesn't affect me, but I think we should support one another and stick together, which is why I want Congress to do right by everyone. This country is too divided, we need a bit of solidarity, because in the end we're all Americans.

I vote: if you're going to give financial relief, make it for everyone no matter how they earn their living (as long as it's legal), not just a bailout to big companies.

I definitely think that we should be covered, as well. I've probably paid double, triple or quadruple in taxes over the years what someone my age that is an employee somewhere has. I feel very fortunate to have the money to weather through this right now, but I know first hand how heavily the self-employed are taxed (and penalized via taxes for being self-employed) and we should be protected just as those that are employed by someone else are. After all, we've probably paid way more in taxes into "the system" than our W-2 counterparts.

 

[Paul F]

I watched the financial channels looking for expert guidance in these unstable times.

The quote of the day from Fast Money - CNBC, 2:30pm PST - "Your supposed to buy low and sell high"

You heard it here first. I'll continue to watch and bring you the hot tips of the day.

 

[Run&Gun]

I watched the financial channels looking for expert guidance in these unstable times.

The quote of the day from Fast Money - CNBC, 2:30pm PST - "Your supposed to buy low and sell high"

You heard it here first. I'll continue to watch and bring you the hot tips of the day.

One of my favorites, from one of my friends, "You wanna paint the floor and the ceiling".

 

[DLD]

A daughter of a friend of mine is an esthetician in LA - no business.

A Facebook friend of mine is a piano teacher in Dallas/Fort Worth - no business. She got a one month car payment deferral from her bank.

 

[Run&Gun]

A daughter of a friend of mine is an esthetician in LA - no business.

A Facebook friend of mine is a piano teacher in Dallas/Fort Worth - no business. She got a one month car payment deferral from her bank.

We're quickly moving to closing all or most non-essential businesses. The Governor has said that barbershops, beauty shops, nail salons, gyms and a few other businesses must close by 5p Wednesday. Gyms had already been shut down around here by local orders since last week.

I've seen some car commercials over the last few days and they are trying hard to get buyers. Ford is offering 84 months at 0% plus three months deferred payments and three more that they'll pay for you. My Ford stock is in the toilet, but I saw that Ford, GM and Tesla are supposed to start manufacturing ventilators.

 

[DLD]

Just got an email from the local Tony Roma's. They're closing. For good. Bad reviews on Yelp did not help. 40 years in the area. Last week they sent notifications that they'd still offer takeout. In retrospect, the signs of a failing business were there long ago. No doubt they'll blame it on CoVid.

 

[groveChuck]

Good news on the financial front-
I got a 3 month extension on our mortgage, and my wife got a 3 month extension on her car loan...

 

[Matt Gottshalk]

That's good to hear!

 

[Guest]

I didn't mean that sports would never be covered again. I meant more in a broader sense. Just kind of a continuation(possible acceleration) of the last half decade of relying less and less on professionals and high-end equipment and more and more on prosumer/consumer equipment and their own people, like producers, PA's, PR people, even talent shooting themsleves with cell phones(happens a lot more in TV at the network level than you'd think). 10 years ago I never would have taken this train of thought, but the changes I've seen tell me otherwise.

I saw this happen to local news stations. They just didn’t have the budgets any more. Was in NC and saw that local news camera ops were paid just over minimum wage. So, other than the older veterans, the new hires were all very green. Not in the way that one might hire the excited intern, but more in the way of... we’d rather hire a warm body than pay someone with experience career wage. Also, the move towards more prosumer gear. I suppose local news has always had a tight budget, so that just got stressed even further.

Perhaps local news is the Canary in the coal mine?

 

[Guest]

I watched the financial channels looking for expert guidance in these unstable times.

The quote of the day from Fast Money - CNBC, 2:30pm PST - "Your supposed to buy low and sell high"

You heard it here first. I'll continue to watch and bring you the hot tips of the day.

Oh wow! That is great advice! I’ll put that on my refrigerator. Haha!

Amazing!

 

[OldCorpse]

I'm really glad to hear - it's much needed! Folks are stretched. Here in CA LA just joined a bunch of local cities (Santa Monica, Culver City, West Hollywood) in suspending evictions under the Ellis Act and rent extensions. This is good.

However, let us remember, those are extensions, and as the city makes clear, you are obligated to pay back that rent within a 6 month period. I don't want to sound doom and gloom, but a lot of folks are not going to be in a position to make good on that if this crisis keeps going on like this.

This is why even though I caught flack for voicing this opinion, but someone has to say it: friends, hard as it may be to hear, we need to get back to "normal" fairly soon. I am NOT saying to abandon the old, sick or vulnerable - in fact, I'm saying the opposite, we need to protect them, allow in-place sheltering, help with groceries, deliveries etc. But what I am saying is those who are younger and who are healthy (for now) must at some point - soon - go back to work and get the economy going, or this is going to be bigger than we can manage. The economy cannot - repeat, CANNOT - withstand this kind of standstill beyond June at the latest. If we don't get ahold of that situation, then a collapsed economy will not help ANYBODY, including the old and sick, there will be no resources left for anyone. I got viciously attacked and downvoted for saying this before, but I ask that you think about what the future holds and the tough choices that will have to be made, because head in the sand is not going to solve anything. To repeat - I'm super glad that folks are getting extensions on their loans, mortgages, car notes, rents etc., but these are all short term, and need to be paid back, and meanwhile what happens if this keeps going on? That's why I'm asking that we at least TALK about what needs to be done. Attacking me is not going to take care of the problem - and btw., I'm not concerned about myself here, I'm going to be OK no matter how long this keeps going on due to various factors (including: wife works for the government in an "essential services" position). So I'm not being "selfish" - I'm speaking on behalf of those who are not going to make it if this crisis keeps going on for much longer. Contact your representatives and tell them they need to start a bi-partisan discussion on how to get the economy going again, while minimizing risk... politicians are scared to say this, because they're afraid of political backlash (the way I was attacked!) and are concerned about their political position - but this cowardice will be to our detriment. Let's get started! Thank you for listening.

 

[Matt Gottshalk]

Well said.

 

[filmguy123]

I suspect half measures might be the only way forward. IE once things are more under control, PPE production ramps up, a wave of recovered medical workers surfaces, etc - that moving to shelter in place for the most vulnerable, with limited engagement for everyone else and a focus on tighter protocols, work at home, etc. might be the approach... just to get things moving again.

The biggest hope is fast breakthroughs on the science and medical front - set your edit rigs to do folding at home, I posted about it. Every week of progress makes a difference.

At the end I agree with Bill Gates statement on this - lives are most important.

 

[Paul F]

From: Every Friggin Company That Has Your Contact Information
To: You

Meeting Our Customer's Needs - We, your electricity company are doing everything we can in these unprecedented times to help you. We're making sure the electricity we send to you is virus free. Blah, blah ... blah blah.

A bunch of copy cats clogging up the Inbox.

 

[Matt Gottshalk]

From: Every Friggin Company That Has Your Contact Information
To: You

Meeting Our Customer's Needs - We, your electricity company are doing everything we can in these unprecedented times to help you. We're making sure the electricity we send to you is virus free. Blah, blah ... blah blah.

A bunch of copy cats clogging up the Inbox.

It makes it easier for me to "unsubscribe" form a bunch of vendors i never even knew had my info.

 

[gkantziper]

I'm really glad to hear - it's much needed! Folks are stretched. Here in CA LA just joined a bunch of local cities (Santa Monica, Culver City, West Hollywood) in suspending evictions under the Ellis Act and rent extensions. This is good.

However, let us remember, those are extensions, and as the city makes clear, you are obligated to pay back that rent within a 6 month period. I don't want to sound doom and gloom, but a lot of folks are not going to be in a position to make good on that if this crisis keeps going on like this.

This is why even though I caught flack for voicing this opinion, but someone has to say it: friends, hard as it may be to hear, we need to get back to "normal" fairly soon. I am NOT saying to abandon the old, sick or vulnerable - in fact, I'm saying the opposite, we need to protect them, allow in-place sheltering, help with groceries, deliveries etc. But what I am saying is those who are younger and who are healthy (for now) must at some point - soon - go back to work and get the economy going, or this is going to be bigger than we can manage. The economy cannot - repeat, CANNOT - withstand this kind of standstill beyond June at the latest. If we don't get ahold of that situation, then a collapsed economy will not help ANYBODY, including the old and sick, there will be no resources left for anyone. I got viciously attacked and downvoted for saying this before, but I ask that you think about what the future holds and the tough choices that will have to be made, because head in the sand is not going to solve anything. To repeat - I'm super glad that folks are getting extensions on their loans, mortgages, car notes, rents etc., but these are all short term, and need to be paid back, and meanwhile what happens if this keeps going on? That's why I'm asking that we at least TALK about what needs to be done. Attacking me is not going to take care of the problem - and btw., I'm not concerned about myself here, I'm going to be OK no matter how long this keeps going on due to various factors (including: wife works for the government in an "essential services" position). So I'm not being "selfish" - I'm speaking on behalf of those who are not going to make it if this crisis keeps going on for much longer. Contact your representatives and tell them they need to start a bi-partisan discussion on how to get the economy going again, while minimizing risk... politicians are scared to say this, because they're afraid of political backlash (the way I was attacked!) and are concerned about their political position - but this cowardice will be to our detriment. Let's get started! Thank you for listening.

Countries that have enforced strict quarantines have done well compared to countries that have citizens that ignore the requests to stay home. Everyone that isn't absolutely essential needs to stay home. Period. Source: Financial Times March 25, 2020 https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

We in the US are on a path to disaster if we don't stay home. China did it. It worked. Japan did it. It is working. S. Korea did it. It is working. Social distancing to flatten the curve is the only way to minimize cases. Listen to the scientists. Listen to the doctors. Ignore those who only have short term financial matters as their interests.

 

[Cary Knoop]

Countries that have enforced strict quarantines have done well compared to countries that have citizens that ignore the requests to stay home. Everyone that isn't absolutely essential needs to stay home. Period.

But for how long?

Once you stop the lockdown, some infected Joe Shmoe from outside your lockdown area or in the "essential needs" sector will start it all over again. We can't be locked down forever.

The virus does not go away by locking down.

 

[gkantziper]

But for how long?

Once you stop the lockdown, some infected Joe Shmoe from outside your lockdown area will start it all over again. We can't be locked down forever.

The virus does not go away by locking down.

You are correct that we can't be locked down forever! We have a stock market to get back up. (sarcasm)

We just need to lock down everything now that is not absolutely essential to slow the speed of spread and not overtax the medical system all at once. (not sarcasm)

Hospitals will overflow with patients that they can't get to because there aren't enough beds, supplies and equipment. Hospitals don't have what they need NOW in terms of masks, gowns, etc....

In NY cases are doubling about every 3 days. There are around 30,000 diagnosed cases in NY at the time of writing. Keep in mind those are just the people tested/reported. Street people? Prisons. (Don't get me started on prisons who know what to do there because there is almost no social distancing there.) Doubling about every 3 days! If most of the respirators end up in the current hot spots don't count on getting elsewhere if you need one.

There are not enough respirators in the country to deal with a massive spike in cases. If you look at the graph we a headed to the same place Italy is at now and it is getting worse. We can deal with this.

It'll "hurt" a lot for a period of time, then it'll be manageable and then we can get back to our lives!

 

[Cary Knoop]

We just need to lock down everything now that is not absolutely essential to slow the speed of spread and not overtax the medical system all at once. (not sarcasm)

I agree with flattening the curve, but I disagree with "enforcing strict quarantine". That's simply unmaintainable.

It'll "hurt" a lot for a period of time, then it'll be manageable and then we can get back to our lives!

So explain how we can "get back to our lives" by having a lockdown. What do you think will happen after the lockdown?
And why have "hurt" between quotes, the hurt from lockdowns is very real which even $6 trillion of funny money can't fix!

 

[gkantziper]

I agree with flattening the curve, but I disagree with "enforcing strict quarantine". That's simply unmaintainable.


So explain how we can "get back to our lives" by having a lockdown. What do you think will happen after the lockdown?
And why have "hurt" between quotes, the hurt from lockdowns is very real which even $6 trillion of funny money can't fix!

What I'm laying out isn't opinion. Look at the data in the chart I included in my first post. That chart shows info less than 24 hours old. We only need to maintain quarantine 'til the line flattens. The Asian countries proved it could be done. We need to do the same. The only reason we haven't gotten the order to do it is an order like that takes leadership and accountability from the highest office and a disregard for near term stock market fluctuations. Maybe before it is too late all the Governors will come to this conclusion - I think ~ 12 states have already mandated some form of "shelter in place" with more to come. Article about each state:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

To put it another way, the Asian countries did strict quarantines and now they can see an end to this. They flattened the curve. Flattening the curve will allow our medical system to deal with the patient load.

Now this is opinion: I think that the Asian populations in the countries on the graph "do what they are told", care about their elderly, fellow man, etc....and the Italians and Americans DON'T care as a whole. This can't be "live free or die" because that won't work out well.