Canon R5 Announced with 8k

[Guest]

Good points. Even $20k, though, would be a steep reduction in their price point and get new people on board. And hey if they toss out their quality control protocols (ahem BMD) I bet they could get the cost of their sensors way down.

And I suppose that ARRI has the Alexa M if you need a compact body for crash camming? (Or is that product made obsolete by the mini?)

Or, another company can produce a 2K DR beast, but they don’t.

I don’t understand the camera market, and i haven’t seen anyone else on dvx understand it that doesn’t actually work for these companies.

It can be good to be a little aware of potential reasons why they behave the way they do, but ultimately, i just want to express what i want, as it i don’t need to see what they want. They want money. I want a camera. I have some money, and they don’t listen to me because i am no one. That is how it has been since i started buying cameras. HD era saw some of the worst camera design choices of all time. As the rabib buying has slowed down, companies are starting to make cameras that seem like they can last again. But no one is making a 2K DR colour perfect tool like Arri. They still are chasing the wind, finding new niches, and going after the biggest piece of the pie.

But sticking a $15K 2Megapixel sensor into a $20K camera sounds wild. I wish you made cameras. Since we’re all goving career advice today, maybe you, Pure, and Combat form a camera company. RnG and I will beta test, and JB will get your cameras onto bigger shoots. Norbro will spread the word on forums.

Talking about camera companies is probably my least favourite part of dvx. It hasn’t done jacksh-t but help us pass the time.

I really like the cameras available today. They are either cheap enough, or just really really good. That’s all i ever really cared about, and sure, maybe my dream version of a cinevised mirrorless camera doesn’t exist yet, but the Komodo will have to suffice.

 

[DLD]

ARRI can move their lower end camera production outside of Germany, as many other German manufacturers have done. BMW, VW and Daimler have plants all over the world.

As to Red, it's an expected move but, historically, the budget companies moving upmarket has been far more successful than the upscale manufacturers moving downward. In other words, Hyundai and Samsung have done so, as well as Toyota/Lexus, Honda/Acura, Nissan/Infinity and, if one were to go back, Ford/Lincoln. Top fashion brands like Armani F/X tried the middle ground but did not go the JC Penney, Target, Walmart mass merchandising route.

My hunch is that Red sales have been eaten up by the LF's on the high end and severely impacted by the C500MKII and FX-9 (and FS-7 prior years) on the low/middle. And, as JB had mentioned, Sony Venice is found on the Sony Studio projects. I thought several years ago that, at some point, Canon and Sony would pretty much swallow everything below ARRI and I still think this to be the case. With their next generation of models.

 

[NorBro]

ARRI can move their lower end camera production outside of Germany, as many other German manufacturers have done. BMW, VW and Daimler have plants all over the world.

As to Red, it's an expected move but, historically, the budget companies moving upmarket has been far more successful than the upscale manufacturers moving downward. In other words, Hyundai and Samsung have done so, as well as Toyota/Lexus, Honda/Acura, Nissan/Infinity and, if one were to go back, Ford/Lincoln. Top fashion brands like Armani F/X tried the middle ground but did not go the JC Penney, Target, Walmart mass merchandising route.

My hunch is that Red sales have been eaten up by the LF's on the high end and severely impacted by the C500MKII and FX-9 (and FS-7 prior years) on the low/middle. And, as JB had mentioned, Sony Venice is found on the Sony Studio projects. I thought several years ago that, at some point, Canon and Sony would pretty much swallow everything below ARRI and I still think this to be the case. With their next generation of models.

What about if someone else with a lot of $$$ - maybe Apple or Tesla/SpaceX or even Amazon - created a small box that provided an image exactly like the LF - to the T - and sold it for $10K. [And also physically had mostly everything the other hardware has.]

Would that put ARRI out of business "overnight"?

Hypothetically, how long before everyone would be using one? And at what point does loyalty and trust vanish?

 

[DLD]

What about if someone else with a lot of $$$ - maybe Apple or Tesla/SpaceX or even Amazon - created a small box that provided an image exactly like the LF - to the T - and sold it for $10K. [And also physically had mostly everything the other hardware has.]

Would that put ARRI out of business "overnight"?

Hypothetically, how long before everyone would be using one? And at what point does loyalty and trust vanish?

I wrote, when Apple sued Red for the "Raw" patents, that it'd be easier to just subcontract/outsource the manufacturing to someone like Samsung (the two of them have a long working partnerships on sensors and processors) and sell it in their Apple stores at near cost just to make its point known. But it's probably much, much cheaper to just negotiate a small licensing fee that to go the "new camera" route.

As to sensor costs. eBay has many listed as replacement for Canon, Nikon, Sony, Panasonic cameras of all shapes, sizes and dates of production. Depending on whether it's a "sensor only" part or a full package/matrix with wiring, a full frame 5D MKIII or A7S sensor replacement can run anywhere from $315 to $600. Now, mind you this is a full retail price. The manufacturing costs are likely to be about one third of that.

PS. I don't think a newcomer can drive ARRI out of business, as camera costs on big productions are negligible.

 

[NorBro]

Maybe monopoly-like.

Essentially no competition and on top for 100 years because no one wants to use anything else.

Even if something else is just as good (or would be), it's almost impossible to change minds.

 

[DLD]

... Oh and not so sound like a complete heretic here ... R5 may turn out to be a fine camera and all that but --- it looks like a jack-of-all-trade product that will get squeezed on the photo end by A7RIV and on the video end by A7SIII. And Sony can easily drop a few hundred off A7SIV price to make it even more competitive...

I meant to say A7RIV (since SIV doesn't currently exist)

But I was correct about the downward price adjustments. It is $300 cheaper now, at $3,200. If R5 comes out at $4,000, Sony will be ready.

 

[NorBro]

Summer rebates are in full effect across-the-board...a lot of "instant savings".

 

[DLD]

Summer rebates are in full effect across-the-board...a lot of "instant savings".

It's also Covid related.

But A7RIV was lauded as the Camera of the Year in 2019, so it's a nice price break.

 

[AndreeOnline]

Red has a healthy respect in Hollywood, but Arri probably sells 10 times as many cameras.

Listening to ARRI say there are roughly 70 Alexa 65 in the world, puts the high end market in perspective.

 

[Eric Coughlin]

For perspective, according to Wiki Arri made about 500 million in revenue in 2017 with 1500 employees, while according to DNB.com Red has 160 million in revenue (I did not see a year listed) with 500 employees, so Arri is about three times the revenue and employees. Aside from cameras Arri also sells lighting, lenses, and various support gear such as matte boxes and follow focuses. Perhaps cameras account for half or a third of their sales. Red has sold some lenses but never with much popularity so I'd imagine a considerably larger percentage of their sales are cameras compared to Arri, I'd guess around 90%. Red cameras are also cheaper on average than Arris which would further contribute to there being a larger number of Red cameras in existence in relation to the revenues of the two companies.

 

[ahalpert]

I wonder how their profit margins compare.

At any rate, the outlook for RED seems much worse to me as viable competitors encroach on its territory. ARRI, on the other hand, seems relatively secure in its position.

 

[DLD]

ARRI probably sells 4,000 or so cameras per year. At about $35,000/40,000 wholesale, so somewhere ~ $200,000,000 in revenues for the camera division (not counting the Alexa65 which is rental only and is usually rented out as a package with their lenses and other gear).

Red's margin must be around 70% as they have a direct-to-customer distribution model. That was the essence of Jim Jannard's marketing genius.

 

[NorBro]

Red's margin must be around 70% as they have a direct-to-customer distribution model. That was the essence of Jim Jannard's marketing genius.

They changed that years ago...a lot of places also sell the cameras for them now.

 

[John Brawley]

My hunch is that Red sales have been eaten up by the LF's on the high end and severely impacted by the C500MKII and FX-9 (and FS-7 prior years) on the low/middle. And, as JB had mentioned, Sony Venice is found on the Sony Studio projects. I thought several years ago that, at some point, Canon and Sony would pretty much swallow everything below ARRI and I still think this to be the case. With their next generation of models.

Yeah I actually think RED has been struggling for the last few years. They've gone high end even though their "brand promise" is for the rebellious non-conforming anti institutional filmmaker. They aren't priced in a very indie way.

Except now they have Komodo. I think they're going to sell a huge number of them. Because it actually appears that it will actually deliver what they have been mostly pretending their brand is all about. It remains to be seen how much of the rest of the eco systen you need to actually get something functional and that has previously been their weakness, but so far it's been more promising than the past few years have been for them.



JB

 

[DLD]

They changed that years ago...a lot of places also sell the cameras for them now.

I know that they're available now through the retail outlets but, since it's a privately held company, not many know the breakdown. One would have to assume that their high end 8K models still mostly go through their own waiting/upgrade lists, etc. And that's where the money is.

... Except now they have Komodo. I think they're going to sell a huge number of them. Because it actually appears that it will actually deliver what they have been mostly pretending their brand is all about. It remains to be seen how much of the rest of the eco systen you need to actually get something functional and that has previously been their weakness, but so far it's been more promising than the past few years have been for them.

JB

But they'd have to ramp up the production while maintaining the QC too. BMD was able to do it with their Pocket 4K/6K units, so the old practice of "announce the camera one year, deliver it two years later" has been changed to "announce it today, deliver it tomorrow". Red's had the same problems with their delivery schedule in the past.

Second, and this is why historically it has been easier to move upmarket than downmarket, the Red user base may not like seeing their own $20,000-$30,000 models turn into $6,000 models within a couple of years and that user base still remains their target. On the positive side, that base is very loyal but the resale value of their gear will still take a bite out of their wallet.

Third, with Komodo, Red has become a mass merchandiser, going against FX-9, C300MKIII, C500MKII (in fact, even underbidding them). BMD has always worked in that niche but the economies of scale, obviously, favor the large Japanese conglomerates. In the long run.

And, fourth, neither margins not total profits on a $6,000 item can compare with the same on their upmarket lineup and this is likely to pull Red's averages way, way down.

No one knows what will happen. My crystal ball is at the mechanic's. The above are the mere meanderings about the goings-on.

 

[NorBro]

Second, and this is why historically it has been easier to move upmarket than downmarket, the Red user base may not like seeing their own $20,000-$30,000 models turn into $6,000 models within a couple of years and that user base still remains their target. On the positive side, that base is very loyal but the resale value of their gear will still take a bite out of their wallet.

This has to be the most frustrating part about being a loyal RED user.

Many appeared to be a little upset over Raven's release - and quite frankly, I would be furious after hearing about the KOMODO.

I understand the more expensive cameras are different in many ways including specifications and hardware, but I couldn't say this wouldn't really, really hurt if I had just invested $20K+ into a system.

 

[Run&Gun]

Yeah I actually think RED has been struggling for the last few years. They've gone high end even though their "brand promise" is for the rebellious non-conforming anti institutional filmmaker. They aren't priced in a very indie way.
JB

Yep.

I know that they're available now through the retail outlets but, since it's a privately held company, not many know the breakdown. One would have to assume that their high end 8K models still mostly go through their own waiting/upgrade lists, etc. And that's where the money is.

But they'd have to ramp up the production while maintaining the QC too. BMD was able to do it with their Pocket 4K/6K units, so the old practice of "announce the camera one year, deliver it two years later" has been changed to "announce it today, deliver it tomorrow". Red's had the same problems with their delivery schedule in the past.

Second, and this is why historically it has been easier to move upmarket than downmarket, the Red user base may not like seeing their own $20,000-$30,000 models turn into $6,000 models within a couple of years and that user base still remains their target. On the positive side, that base is very loyal but the resale value of their gear will still take a bite out of their wallet.

Third, with Komodo, Red has become a mass merchandiser, going against FX-9, C300MKIII, C500MKII (in fact, even underbidding them). BMD has always worked in that niche but the economies of scale, obviously, favor the large Japanese conglomerates. In the long run.

And, fourth, neither margins not total profits on a $6,000 item can compare with the same on their upmarket lineup and this is likely to pull Red's averages way, way down.

No one knows what will happen. My crystal ball is at the mechanic's. The above are the mere meanderings about the goings-on.

This has to be the most frustrating part about being a loyal RED user.

Many appeared to be a little upset over Raven's release - and quite frankly, I would be furious after hearing about the KOMODO.

I understand the more expensive cameras are different in many ways including specifications and hardware, but I couldn't say this wouldn't really, really hurt if I had just invested $20K+ into a system.

There's already a thread a few days old on RU with guys worried about Komodo killing the used market for DSMC2 RED's.

 

[Eric Coughlin]

Red has constantly been updating and out-dating their old cameras on a practically yearly basis. Anyone who has followed Red's history, recently bought a Red, and then got "surprised" that their Red's value suddenly took a sharp and (prematurely) quick decline in value, must have skipped history class.

Meanwhile, I'd still be happy with the image I'd get from a 10 year old Alexa Classic. My Amira is six years old now, still the only current model of its type, and going strong. In those six years, no sensor updates, no price drops (the camera has actually gone up in purchase price), no new body types, etc.

Even if you like the features, image, price, etc., Reds have historically been difficult investements.

 

[Run&Gun]

I don't look at any of this stuff as investments. "Investing in your business", maybe that's a more reasonable term, but you're buying tools to allow you to do your job/make money. Now, the gear you buy should make back many times what it's purchase price was, but generally speaking, it's rare when the actual piece of equipment will ever sell used for more than it was purchased for. Today, you're lucky to get ~30% out of a lot of things if you sell them later down the road. I see current model $30K+ ENG lenses on eBay for ~$10K. High-end support gear, the same ~60%+ "depreciation". I just picked up some pristine current model support late last year for 20% of its new cost. Heck, Amira's are easy to find for less than half of their cost new. And I think you picked one up for even less than that, correct?

 

[Eric Coughlin]

Yeah, I got one for 17.8k and another for 22.6k (plus another $5k each to properly accessorize them), when they sold new for $44.6k. They were both heavily used with 6000 and 3500 hours, respectively. The first one I bought new. Even so, most of these "less than half the cost of new" Amiras you see online are just that, old, lots of hours, heavily used, often from China, etc. I'd imagine in most cases they work fine but of course you always take more risks buying a heavier used piece of gear. One of mine had a noisy fan that needed repair and then I've already mentioned the story of how UPS then destroyed it on the way to repair. I think the low hour good condition ones still sell for a good amount more than half of the new price (though pandemic deals could affect that).

Also, the price a camera sells for used is not the only thing that values it. Often rental rates are dictated by how much a camera sells for new (I know, maybe not in your broadcast world but that's not necessarily what I'm referring to). When I quote clients, I typically have hyperlinks embedded to my more expensive equipment (cameras, lenses, Steadicam) to show them the value of why they're paying more for that gear in case they're not aware of what it costs new. As the Amira is currently listed at $42k and most clients don't follow trends on Ebay of what high hour ones are selling for, as far as they're concerned they're getting a $42k camera, and my rental rates reflect that even if I got a cheaper used one, as long as the used one functions as well as new.

"Investments"...it's semantics. I think you know what I mean, not investment just in terms of buying and reselling, but also accounting for the profits you make from using it. You "invest" $50k in a Red package, make $20k from rentals of it over the course of two years, then it quickly gets outdated, you sell it for $20k, and you've lost $10k of money from the purchase. That's a bad investment. In Arri's case of infrequent updates, let's say the prices are the same, $50k camera, but over an eight year product cycle, at $10k rentals per year, $80k profit, and then sell it eight years later for $20k, netting $50k positive profit. So, a profitable investment. Shorter product runs with quick depreciation of resale value make profiting more difficult.

Your Sony F55 has held its value incredibly well as well.