Barry_Green
Moderator
That's the problem I have with people thinking that "4K" is going to be a selling point... I've said it before, and others are touching on it here, but what drives consumers is CONVENIENCE, not "quality". Consumers didn't migrate in droves to highly-compressed MP3's for quality's sake! They went to MP3's so they could 1) have all their music with them whenever they wanted, 2) swap and/or steal songs, 3) get away from physical media entirely. MP3's are definitely not as high-quality as the CD's they are ripped from; it's definitely a case of getting lower quality but more convenience -- and it was accepted in a landslide.
Same thing with DVD over VHS -- did anyone really buy DVD for the better picture quality? I'd argue, in general, the public did not. After all, if they were so concerned about picture quality, why didn't they buy into LaserDisc? They bought DVDs for a few reasons, primarily -- NO MORE TAPE. No more rewinding, no more "be kind, rewind", no more VCR eating the tape. Improved quality was a secondary consideration, if a consideration at all for the masses, because it's pretty unlikely that the cheapo TV sets people were watching it on would show much, if any, quality improvement for DVD over VHS. Now, don't get me wrong, DVD is a big step up in quality over VHS, but I still believe that had little to do with market acceptance.
Which brings us to Blu-ray -- a big step up in quality, and a big step down in convenience. Blu-rays are a PITA. They take forever to boot, and they glitch *all the time*. It's rare that I can get through a Netflix without having to skip or jump over some section that just glitches, and that's on two different Blu-ray players. Blu-ray players have to have an internet connection and you have to constantly be upgrading the firmware (although some do this invisibly). Is it worth it? The image is sharper, yes, but the discs cost more and the players are more hassle, so ... by and large, the public said "pass". To this day, consumers still spend way more on DVD discs than on blu-rays. For the week ended Oct 26, 2013, consumers spent $78.18 million on DVD discs, but bought only $29.87 million of Blu-ray discs. DVD still accounts for nearly 3/4 of the market for disc-based video.
Blu-ray added quality, but didn't bring anything else (of any practical value) to the party, and so it has floundered.
So the question I keep asking is: what will 4K bring to the table? How will it be a step up in convenience? Because if it's just about quality, then it can look forward to a tedious, slow, painful rollout, or even a flop, like the high-quality Super Audio CD format, which flopped utterly.
Same thing with DVD over VHS -- did anyone really buy DVD for the better picture quality? I'd argue, in general, the public did not. After all, if they were so concerned about picture quality, why didn't they buy into LaserDisc? They bought DVDs for a few reasons, primarily -- NO MORE TAPE. No more rewinding, no more "be kind, rewind", no more VCR eating the tape. Improved quality was a secondary consideration, if a consideration at all for the masses, because it's pretty unlikely that the cheapo TV sets people were watching it on would show much, if any, quality improvement for DVD over VHS. Now, don't get me wrong, DVD is a big step up in quality over VHS, but I still believe that had little to do with market acceptance.
Which brings us to Blu-ray -- a big step up in quality, and a big step down in convenience. Blu-rays are a PITA. They take forever to boot, and they glitch *all the time*. It's rare that I can get through a Netflix without having to skip or jump over some section that just glitches, and that's on two different Blu-ray players. Blu-ray players have to have an internet connection and you have to constantly be upgrading the firmware (although some do this invisibly). Is it worth it? The image is sharper, yes, but the discs cost more and the players are more hassle, so ... by and large, the public said "pass". To this day, consumers still spend way more on DVD discs than on blu-rays. For the week ended Oct 26, 2013, consumers spent $78.18 million on DVD discs, but bought only $29.87 million of Blu-ray discs. DVD still accounts for nearly 3/4 of the market for disc-based video.
Blu-ray added quality, but didn't bring anything else (of any practical value) to the party, and so it has floundered.
So the question I keep asking is: what will 4K bring to the table? How will it be a step up in convenience? Because if it's just about quality, then it can look forward to a tedious, slow, painful rollout, or even a flop, like the high-quality Super Audio CD format, which flopped utterly.
I know I do not think they are going to make a big sell in the near term. The HDTV worked for most people because they were in many cases selling a CRT they had for 10-20 years. Many have recently purchased HDTVs so new 4k TVs will be too early for an upgrade. I don't think it will be a 3D level of disappointment because there is a future, but it is way too early for the TVs to sell in any quantity.
