Upcoming tariffs

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QuickHitRecord

QuickHitRecord

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As if I needed any more incentive to go on an end-of-year shopping spree, we may see some new tariffs on video equipment in the coming months. Without getting into politics, what do anticipate will become more expensive and/or difficult to buy? What, if anything, do you plan to stock up on?
 
QuickHitRecord said:
As if I needed any more incentive to go on an end-of-year shopping spree, we may see some new tariffs on video equipment in the coming months. Without getting into politics, what do anticipate will become more expensive and/or difficult to buy? What, if anything, do you plan to stock up on?
Click to expand...
I don't feel like I need to stock up on stuff because most of the gear I use are not expendables. I'm also not worried about companies that aren't Chinese. If there are additional costs imposed on manufacturing in China then a lot of non-Chinese companies will move production to Thailand or Vietnam.

But if I were thinking about buying something from Aputure or Smallrig or DJI, I would probably try to do it this year. I think the tariffs will happen swiftly after the new administration comes in.
 
I was thinking along the same lines. After checking with some of Sony Australia's import folks, I was told that most of the Japanese camera manufacturing industry got spooked in 2018 when Trump was in and introduced tariff hikes. They thought he might get back in 2020 and so started to look at moving their manufacturing out of China as they could see that the relationship between the USA and China was starting to sour.

Sony have closed all their Chinese plants now bar one. That is producing product for the Chinese market only. Canon have closed their last plant and now make no camera kit in China. Canon, Sony, Nikon and a number of other industries have relocated a lot of their manufacturing to Thailand and even Taiwan and other S.E. Asian localities.

For most of the world, we may see 20% tariffs. But for the States, I was told they, for camera kit they would most likely miss the 60% tariffs being talked about for Chinese goods, as manufacturers will ensure goods destined for the States will not be manufactured in China.

My wife runs her own accountancy business, and numerous of her clients are large importers of Chinese product to Australia. It was suggested to me by some of them that if the tariffs do have a sizeable impact on Chinese exports to the States, the rest of the world could benefit. That Chinese exporters will be looking for other markets and be discounting goods to move them. The Chinese economy is not in a real good place currently, as a lot of US and European demand has dropped as the Russia / Ukrainian fiasco rolls on. As Europe and its allies have awoken to the risk of overreliance on Chinese supply lines. China tacitly supporting Russia has done China no export favors.

All to ponder at and watch out for, I would suggest. I don't know how many of you Stateside followed what has happened in Europe since the Common Market was formed and then became the EU. The EU built a massive tariff wall around itself, which ended up fostering inefficient and non-competitive business practices within the EU. Protectionist tariffs eventually collapse. As they have done so in Europe. Causing massive upheavals. For the first time in its history, Volkswagen is closing three plants. Ford is staring massive layoffs. And they are just the tip of the iceberg. Tariffs have protected the European manufacturing economy to such a degree they are no longer competitive. European manufacturers being protected just didn't innovate and become competitive.

I just trust we don't see the European experience repeated in the USA, as that does not bode well for the USA. And if it isn't good for the USA, it ain't good for the world. Fingers crossed it all works out. But that is a very naive position to take. The underlying issues facing society that bring us to such simplistic and non-effective solutions as tariffs are far more complex and deeply rooted.

A personal viewpoint. By hawking the illusion that society can ameliorate America’s and the world's serious social problems with a wave of the magic wand of tariffs ignores the fact that the underlying problem is deeply rooted in the failure of the social contract between the people and their governments. Largely fuelled by the decline in education standards. Which in turn leads to a drop in the standard of living. Which in turn divides society into the haves and have-nots. For those interested in the path of societal development that brings us to this current point in society's development, you may find the following an interesting, though somewhat depressing read.

Chris Young

https://t.ly/T2Ffa
 
Whether buying items imported from Europe, Canada, the Americas, or Asia, I don't see how such tariffs don't quickly affect our end-user pricing. Between 2017 and 2021, we saw a big jump in raw material costs, especially in metals and processors / chips. Some of that was tariff, and a lot of it was supply-chain issues. It wasn't more than one quarter later that manufacturers were 10% - 50% more on the resulting finished goods.
 
cyvideo said:
All to ponder at and watch out for, I would suggest. I don't know how many of you Stateside followed what has happened in Europe since the Common Market was formed and then became the EU. The EU built a massive tariff wall around itself, which ended up fostering inefficient and non-competitive business practices within the EU. Protectionist tariffs eventually collapse. As they have done so in Europe. Causing massive upheavals. For the first time in its history, Volkswagen is closing three plants. Ford is staring massive layoffs. And they are just the tip of the iceberg. Tariffs have protected the European manufacturing economy to such a degree they are no longer competitive. European manufacturers being protected just didn't innovate and become competitive.
Click to expand...
That's exactly what will happen in the USA. Morons will soon be in charge. I cannot say more without the risk of being banned from this forum.
 
cyvideo said:
I was thinking along the same lines. After checking with some of Sony Australia's import folks, I was told that most of the Japanese camera manufacturing industry got spooked in 2018 when Trump was in and introduced tariff hikes. They thought he might get back in 2020 and so started to look at moving their manufacturing out of China as they could see that the relationship between the USA and China was starting to sour.

Sony have closed all their Chinese plants now bar one. That is producing product for the Chinese market only. Canon have closed their last plant and now make no camera kit in China. Canon, Sony, Nikon and a number of other industries have relocated a lot of their manufacturing to Thailand and even Taiwan and other S.E. Asian localities.

For most of the world, we may see 20% tariffs. But for the States, I was told they, for camera kit they would most likely miss the 60% tariffs being talked about for Chinese goods, as manufacturers will ensure goods destined for the States will not be manufactured in China.

My wife runs her own accountancy business, and numerous of her clients are large importers of Chinese product to Australia. It was suggested to me by some of them that if the tariffs do have a sizeable impact on Chinese exports to the States, the rest of the world could benefit. That Chinese exporters will be looking for other markets and be discounting goods to move them. The Chinese economy is not in a real good place currently, as a lot of US and European demand has dropped as the Russia / Ukrainian fiasco rolls on. As Europe and its allies have awoken to the risk of overreliance on Chinese supply lines. China tacitly supporting Russia has done China no export favors.

All to ponder at and watch out for, I would suggest. I don't know how many of you Stateside followed what has happened in Europe since the Common Market was formed and then became the EU. The EU built a massive tariff wall around itself, which ended up fostering inefficient and non-competitive business practices within the EU. Protectionist tariffs eventually collapse. As they have done so in Europe. Causing massive upheavals. For the first time in its history, Volkswagen is closing three plants. Ford is staring massive layoffs. And they are just the tip of the iceberg. Tariffs have protected the European manufacturing economy to such a degree they are no longer competitive. European manufacturers being protected just didn't innovate and become competitive.

I just trust we don't see the European experience repeated in the USA, as that does not bode well for the USA. And if it isn't good for the USA, it ain't good for the world. Fingers crossed it all works out. But that is a very naive position to take. The underlying issues facing society that bring us to such simplistic and non-effective solutions as tariffs are far more complex and deeply rooted.

A personal viewpoint. By hawking the illusion that society can ameliorate America’s and the world's serious social problems with a wave of the magic wand of tariffs ignores the fact that the underlying problem is deeply rooted in the failure of the social contract between the people and their governments. Largely fuelled by the decline in education standards. Which in turn leads to a drop in the standard of living. Which in turn divides society into the haves and have-nots. For those interested in the path of societal development that brings us to this current point in society's development, you may find the following an interesting, though somewhat depressing read.

Chris Young

https://t.ly/T2Ffa
Click to expand...
I'm not a protectionist but I don't think that NAFTA was good on the whole for American society. There must be a middle ground.
 
ahalpert said:
I'm not a protectionist but I don't think that NAFTA was good on the whole for American society. There must be a middle ground.
Click to expand...
You are right. The model most of the world should try to follow is the highly deregulated one in the bottom up, not top down democratic society of Switzerland. A country that refused to join the EU as they could see what was happening as Europe pulled up the drawbridge of tariffs and protectionism.

An interesting look at how Switzerland's GDP and the individual wealth of its citizens soars above virtually every country is lightheartedly looked at in the following doco at:

51.08 Benefits of free trade in a low regulation bottom up democracy.

Also, the disadvantages:

45.22 The disadvantages of tariffs and protectionism.

Chris Young

https://t.ly/JQcOH
 
cyvideo said:
You are right. The model most of the world should try to follow is the highly deregulated one in the bottom up, not top down democratic society of Switzerland. A country that refused to join the EU as they could see what was happening as Europe pulled up the drawbridge of tariffs and protectionism.

An interesting look at how Switzerland's GDP and the individual wealth of its citizens soars above virtually every country is lightheartedly looked at in the following doco at:

51.08 Benefits of free trade in a low regulation bottom up democracy.

Also, the disadvantages:

45.22 The disadvantages of tariffs and protectionism.

Chris Young

https://t.ly/JQcOH
Click to expand...
It looks like Switzerland's economy has grown roughly seven-fold since 1980 but the USA's economy has grown over ten-fold since then

But the GINI coefficient of Switzerland (a measure of economic inequality) is 31, which is much better than the US which is 47. (Scale goes from 0 to 100.)
 
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ahalpert said:
It looks like Switzerland's economy has grown roughly seven-fold since 1980 but the USA's economy has grown over ten-fold since then

But the GINI coefficient of Switzerland (a measure of economic inequality) is 31, which is much better than the US which is 47. (Scale goes from 0 to 100.)
Click to expand...
That's the thing, though, isn't it. Where the wealth lies and how it is distributed is the important thing. Not the total size of the economy per se. And a lot of that comes down to the type of democratic capitalism a country runs.

John O. McGinnis finished one of his essays, "Our Fragmenting Democracy." for LAW & LIBERTY, with the following statement.

"In short, the solution to our fragmented democracy will more likely emerge bottom-up from civil and market society, rather than top-down through politics."

I felt in his piece he was pretty close to pinpointing a lot of western society's ills. And in doing so came to a reasonable conclusion. And I include Australia in his comments as I see very strong social discontent and polarization developing in Australian society, much the same as to what is being observed and commented on in the USA. Identifying our underlying social ills and divides is one thing. But coming up with a solution is going to be a long term process, to which no one seems to have an answer. Humans! Where would we be without them? ;)

Chris Young

https://lawliberty.org/our-fragmenting-democracy/
 
I don't imagine it will affect pricing too much for the legacy camera companies, because as Chris pointed out many of them moved manufacturing out of China during the last round of trade war nonsense. Unless of course they subscribe to the "greedflation" philosophy of raising prices beyond any cost increases from new tariffs.

I am curious how Chinese lens companies like Viltrox, Meike, DZO, Laowa, or Sirui will handle it. It really depends on each one's long-term strategy as a brand; if they feel like they've established themselves as being on par with the offerings from Japan or Europe, then they might use this as a chance to bring their prices up, or if they're perfectly happy being an affordable alternative or feel like they still need time to do more R&D and establish a better market presence, maybe their prices won't go up that much over the next few years.

Given the proposed tariffs are percentages, it probably won't hit so hard dollar-wise on the lower-priced Amazon Marketplace / Alibaba products like SmallRig, Neewer, etc. so there really isn't a good reason to "stock up' on that type of thing if you don't need it right now.
 
QuickHitRecord said:
As if I needed any more incentive to go on an end-of-year shopping spree, we may see some new tariffs on video equipment in the coming months. Without getting into politics, what do anticipate will become more expensive and/or difficult to buy? What, if anything, do you plan to stock up on?
Click to expand...
I don't plan on stocking up because of this. At the end of the day, "proposed tariffs" is just the beginning salvo in the negotiations...
I don't agree with it... but it's just talk... or a threat... for now.
 
cyvideo said:
That's the thing, though, isn't it. Where the wealth lies and how it is distributed is the important thing. Not the total size of the economy per se. And a lot of that comes down to the type of democratic capitalism a country runs.

John O. McGinnis finished one of his essays, "Our Fragmenting Democracy." for LAW & LIBERTY, with the following statement.

"In short, the solution to our fragmented democracy will more likely emerge bottom-up from civil and market society, rather than top-down through politics."

I felt in his piece he was pretty close to pinpointing a lot of western society's ills. And in doing so came to a reasonable conclusion. And I include Australia in his comments as I see very strong social discontent and polarization developing in Australian society, much the same as to what is being observed and commented on in the USA. Identifying our underlying social ills and divides is one thing. But coming up with a solution is going to be a long term process, to which no one seems to have an answer. Humans! Where would we be without them? ;)

Chris Young

https://lawliberty.org/our-fragmenting-democracy/
Click to expand...
or maybe the answer is just better tax policy. the masters of the universe have succeeded in altering the system to their benefit and are better prepared to contain popular backlash than they were a hundred years ago. they're winning the class war.
 
ahalpert said:
or maybe the answer is just better tax policy. the masters of the universe have succeeded in altering the system to their benefit and are better prepared to contain popular backlash than they were a hundred years ago. they're winning the class war.
Click to expand...
They sure are winning. History is littered with examples of when this happens and the masses see no way out, it becomes, Vive la révolution! The Age of Revolutions is a period in history generally accepted to be between c.1775-1848. Looking at what is going on in Europe, the Middle East and the rest of the world, we may be headed for a second "Age".

Enough already! Back to video and film discussion...

Chris Young
 
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