The great die-out?

O

OldCorpse

Rockin the Boat
I wonder if the economic situation is impacting the number of people involved in the film and TV business - both working professionals and indie aspirants...

Here in LA, production has dropped off a cliff. It was bad in 2008, and in 2009 it only got worse. It's starting to feel permanent - i.e. it's not coming back, ever to the levels of, say, even 5 years ago. If anything, maybe it'll even shrink further.

Now, what's interesting to me, is not the actual working pros - that's easier to judge. What I'm interested in, is if this has had an impact on the number of students and interest in film school, and in the numbers of unknowns who grab a camera and try to make a film, or even just break into the business - like how many submissions to screenplay competitions there are compared to other years etc. I mean, if people start thinking that this is a business on the decline in the sense that fewer and fewer people can make a living at it, will the demand slacken off?

Once upon a time, vaudeville used to be huge - but that died out completely. Obviously, film and TV will never die (at least in our life-time), but has the game changed so much that fewer young people even aspire to be in this business vs going into say, games or internet based entertainment?

Heck, this is probably just an illusion, but I get the impression that even dvxuser.com is less active with posters... as if people are growing too discouraged to even post... probably just my mistaken impression though :)

Thoughts?
 
One could just pop onto Craigslist and see whether or not there has been a reduction in student films. I don't see it.
 
IIRC Sundance and Slamdance received record, or near record, submissions this year. W/how pie-in-the-sky the odds have always been of making it Hollywood I doubt it will discourage newcomers/outsides much 'cause they haven't been kicked in the balls yet by the industry. I think the people that will most likely get washed out are those that have already made the trek to LA, had their dreams smashed repeatedly at their feet and the down economy will just provide the final straw that breaks their will to make it in Tinsel Town.

No, I'm really not nearly as jaded as this makes me sound. :)


-Andrew
 
Here in LA, production has dropped off a cliff. It was bad in 2008, and in 2009 it only got worse. It's starting to feel permanent - i.e. it's not coming back, ever to the levels of, say, even 5 years ago. If anything, maybe it'll even shrink further.
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Where are you getting this notion from? Pilot season actually exists this year. There are a ton of shows currently casting. Two years ago, there was no pilot season, last year it was weak. This year there is one. I don't know how that translates into "production dropping off a cliff".

Whereas original work certainly isn't getting picked up by the studios, and spec acquisitions are down, physical production is still here. I'm curious as to where you are judging this from. Not to be hyper-critical on your post, but are you looking at the indie view? Or the studio-system view?

Things have changed from five years ago. Now, I didn't directly see how the system worked five years ago. But from other people, yes - the system is different. But certainly not dead.
 
Mattykins said:
Where are you getting this notion from? Pilot season actually exists this year. There are a ton of shows currently casting. Two years ago, there was no pilot season, last year it was weak. This year there is one. I don't know how that translates into "production dropping off a cliff".

Whereas original work certainly isn't getting picked up by the studios, and spec acquisitions are down, physical production is still here. I'm curious as to where you are judging this from. Not to be hyper-critical on your post, but are you looking at the indie view? Or the studio-system view?

Things have changed from five years ago. Now, I didn't directly see how the system worked five years ago. But from other people, yes - the system is different. But certainly not dead.
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True, pilot season is on, but the budgets have collapsed. It's a joke compared to what the budgets were in years past. I hear this from all my friends in TV. And as to film production, yes, it has been down. The indie scene is harder to judge - especially the guerilla stuff is not captured in permit numbers :) - perhaps that's going great, I don't know...

But, if you have a different experience, I'm happy to hear that. I certainly prefer to be optimistic :)
 
I know production died in the midwest in 2009... that is for damn sure.

There used to be a bunch of Travel, Discovery, History, E!, MTV, etc. gigs coming through KC to Chicago all the time...

I worked on shows that I've yet to even see... and ad campaigns as well. It's like we did a crap-load of work in 2006-2008 and now it's all in the pipe, waiting to air...?

2009 sucked in my neck of the woods. It's got me thinking about moving east or west, but I think the film economy is changing... I think you're best off if you're capable of end to end production. I also think you can work enough if you have a ton of gear and can work for the rental rates of that gear, paying yourself nothing... so to speak. In another words... see what your local rental house charges for a particular gear package... see what you have of that package (or get it) then get the word out that you will bring that package and yourself for around that same price... and you'll get work.

It sucks... but gear gets gigs... I've said this for years and it's still true. Once you get the gig all you really need to do is "not f*ck up"... I've said that for years also... and it's the truest thing about video production that anybody will ever tell you.

I'm working my contacts in STL... work doesn't fall in my lap the way it used to... I gotta' hustle it up.
 
From a working-professional perspective - my dance card has been solid-full for the last three years, my present gig runs for +/- another two months, and I'm in talks for the next show to start in July/August.

I know there's been a lot of doom-talk and complaints about cutbacks etc, and it's true that a number of good people I know have been having trouble finding gigs, but for them it seems to be improving and for me each year has been as good or better than the year preceding.

I'm getting as many calls and emails from graduating students and interested beginners, as ever. They don't seem to be thinning, so far as I can see...and one of my alma maters just invited me to come and teach for a semester, which suggests to me that they aren't having trouble filling their classrooms.

YMMV.
 
I think this economy has helped filter out some of those people who don't need to be in the business in the first place, i.e. the one's who don't really know what they're doing and don't have an interest in educating themselves.

I think you can still be successful if you continue to grow as a content creator and don't just sit on your laurels looking for your "big break"

And I do agree that gear gets gigs, so be smart and get gear that's in demand...and don't go cheap either.
 
OldCorpse said:
Heck, this is probably just an illusion, but I get the impression that even dvxuser.com is less active with posters... as if people are growing too discouraged to even post...
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Maybe they've just gone elsewhere? Reduser? Another site I'm not aware of? The DSLR section is pretty busy.
 
^ Interestingly enough, I saw a Craigslist ad for a shoot yesterday that basically said not to bother applying if your camera was a 7D or something similar.
 
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