G
Guest
Guest
You essentially state this in your post in other terms, but to piggy back off that - the consumers have spoken hence the high volume of high IQ cameras flooding the market.
The very high tier pro market is both price insensitive and firmly entrenched in certain products and workflows. That makes it hard to break into, and it makes quality/reliability/trust the #1 metric - not price - so really the only way to "win" them is to offer a substantially better and more compelling product, regardless of price. A same price, or even slightly cheaper camera equivalent to Arri from a newcomer... whats the point? You lose trust/familiarity. And with a price insensitive market, even a camera at 1/3rd the cost thats maybe slightly better - still an uphill battle. This is a hard nut to crack. RED did right during the transition to digital. Good timing.
That leaves a sort of very low volume "tweener" market. This appears to be getting squeezed continually, every single time one brand takes a risk and gives a little more between $5k-$10k price point. I think its going to get squeezed even more in the next few years.
Interestingly enough - I think this market will get squeezed precisely because IQ is plateauing yet companies still need to release new products. Ok, so Panasonic releases an EVA2 with an L-mount and better codes, slow motion, and some other features. Great. It has to offer more than the EVA1 to be worth it. And it's going to be difficult for them to price much higher than the EVA1. So, as soon as the EVA2 drops, three things happen: (A) the EVA1 will drop in value and you'll have a used market full of EVA1, FS7 mk II, etc. at a lower price than today. And the image quality and physical features and I/O will still be pretty much on par with the EVA2. This drops the actual price of entry for most users into this field. (B) The mid tier market will now offer even more at the same (new) price point than it did in 2017 (which was already a lot). (C) Sony etc. all has to outdo the competition, repeating this cycle.
This is obvious, of course. We know this.
This has always happen, except now we are peaking on the diminishing returns curve. What you've got is a low ground that is constantly rising both in IQ and features and 3rd party workarounds (like Xume filters and Atomos recorders), and a high ground that is stagnating in practical purposes (although continually improving, it is mostly only on "vanity metrics" (maybe that term is unfair - lets call it specialty features) - things like super slow FPS and super hi res and way over the top DR) that don't most people unless they are at the very very top end.
And then you've got this middle ground that, save for a few hold out features, is just continually being compressed into the low ground.
ND filters. SDI. XLR. Those are sort of the big three, right?
But then of course we have: Xume Filters, ProRes RAW over HDMI & USB 3.0, XLR modules & MixPre-3 type devices.
Form factor? We are so spoiled for options to rebuild exactly the box you want via Zacuto, SmallRig, and a million others.
Perhaps the best illustration of this squeeze from the "low" end - The S1H. $4000. It matches or beats the EVA1 in pretty much every spec except the listed big three, all with a better UI and IBIS to boot. It also packs better for travel, sometimes an increasing number of OMBs are doing.
So whats left? We already know modular is the future.
It'd be easy to see the future in the way it's always been, but I think it's going to get derailed by a few things we are already seeing:
1. ND filters become outdated. Sensor tech is already moving to individually dimmable pixels that essentially work as on-sensor ND. Other solutions also in works. Don't think of "when ND filters come to DSLRS", think more like "when ND filters become obsoleted by technology".
2. SDI becomes outdated. USB 3.2 latest specs are smoking. Double the run distance I believe, extremely high data. I don't know if it's good enough yet, but give these interconnects a few years and there will be little left for SDI. Sure, SDI has a "pro connector". That's just a connector, though. Picture USB 4.0 with near infinite run distances passing multiple streams of super high bandwidth data in razer thin cables. Now picture some companies wrapping that in a super reinforced shielding with a high grade connector on the end. Walla. SDI is dead. The top tier markets might still use it, as those large entities tend to be slow to adapt, but everyone else will move on.
3. XLR. Always the classic, but we can't be that long away from better pre-amps built into camera bodies, and we already have great XLR modules. I think this is already solved, but we just haven't seen a ton of widespread implementation of great products at the prosumer level. As well, think a few years out. Will XLR cables be replaced with pro-grade USB 4.0 cables and all digital recording? No biggee if not, but it certainly seems possible.
End of the day, I think the low end and mid tier market fully merge, and DSLRs become more akin to RED's "brain" modules. I think accessory modules simply improve to a less jerry-rigged state where everything is power efficient and runs off one central battery the size of the S1 battery if you so wish. And "all-in-one" cameras largely evaporate - where even manufacturers sell those designs as modular.
I think imminent tech improvements will pave the way for that very easily, because we are right on the cusp to the largest hurdles there dissapearing (they already are). Namely:
* I/O connectors (Think USB 3.2 or 4.0)
* Battery (not so much better battery tech, that's down the road, but more power efficient CPUs and MicroLED screens, etc.)
* Storage (smaller yet higher density SSDs combined with more efficient codecs like ProRes RAW/H.265)
* Sensor tech or otherwise obsoleting traditional ND filters
Large size bodies made sense before - they've been necessary to fit all the parts. Dissipate all the heat. But that's decreasingly the case. So they'll still exist - where they need to - at the very high end.
So, nothing. Nothing will be barred. I think the market will transform. It already has. Follow the natural trajectory.
This is precisely the direction I hope people start thinking. OF course, hoping image quality continues to improve, as there is still some ways before digital image quality is truly there.
But there are plenty of other places that need improving and going forward into the future that need developing. The whole image quality tier thing is pointless and should no longer be the deciding factor in a video camera, especially as sensor tech slows down.
These sensors in a box and mirrorless hacks, and weird feature ommissions have reached fever pitch.