..So Sony loses twice?

[Green Hornet]

It is obvious what the HVX200 is going to do to Sony's sales in the $4,000-$$10,000 range. There are more than the HDV sales that will be affected.
In fact, if you tried to get on a waiting list now, for the HVX200 from Panasonic, you would be on the third shippment at the END of January (First on Dec29th, second early January, and third late January).
So Sony is the one and only once again.

If they don't support all the buyers of the Panasonic codec, through Vegas,
Thoes same buyers will either go to Canopus if it is cheap and fool proof like the Canopus DV-RAPTOR was for DV, or if
Canopus tries to make their product Edius only (not suporting Adobe Premiere), or make it too expensive, Everyone will be forced to jump ship to
Final Cut.

This could be a huge opportunity for Apple and Final cut.

Imagine if Apple low balled Final Cut for HD, or offered a half off rebate to HVX200 buyers, by sending in the ups barcode. All buyers would jump ship and go Final Cut.

If you are like me, that would also mean that I would have to buy a new top of the line Apple to edit it on as well.

Sony loses twice,
Apple wins twice,
Panasonic's next 5 years changes nicely.


Just my view from the 48th position on the HVX200 waiting list.

 

[Steve Shovlar]

Sonys sales of the FX1 and ZU1 are huge. We are talking tens of thousands of units sold. The marketting and name alone sells the FX1 to the prosumer.
In the UK you can walk into the local branch of Jessops or Dixons and buy an FX1. For all its slating on here, the camera is a 5 star for the price and not to be sniffed at. The reviews from all the camcord mags rate it at 95%, and while this may not mean much to you, an awful lot of folk rely on these magazines to help them decide which camcorder to purchase. So Sony have won hands down with this camera, whatever its shortcomings.

Now the HVX200 might well be a better camera than the ZU1 or FX1. But one thing is for sure. It will not sell a fraction of the amount that the FX1 has sold. You will not be able to walk into your local camera store on the high street and buy one, and the price alone rules out 95% of the prosumer market.

I own an FX1 and am very pleased with it, and I will be buying a HVX200 when they become available in PAL format. But don't think for a second that Sony have lost the battle. Panasonic won't do a fraction of the sales Sony have done with their two HD cameras.

 

[Spiff]

The real question you have to ask is how many HVX200s do you expect to sell? Of those people that buy them, for how many of them would Vegas have even been relevant as the desired editing package?

Seeing as "Vegas" market is already competing with Avid, FCP, Premiere, etc. it seems to me like a 1 in 4 chance Vegas would even be considered at all... So it doesn't seem like a huge market.

Furthermore, considering Sony has been selling reliable HDV camcorders for a year, has one pro model "competing" with the HVX200 that's in fact several $k less to shoot on, 2 prosumer models that are 1/2 the price, and 1 enthusiast model that's 1/4 the price of the HVX, I'd hardly say they're "losing".

The only camera that might be seriously compromised is the Z1U - which is at least PAL/NTSC switchable.

-Spiff

 

[Contact_Therapy]

Now the HVX200 might well be a better camera than the ZU1 or FX1. But one thing is for sure. It will not sell a fraction of the amount that the FX1 has sold.

Wanna bet? :thumbsup:

And if I'm not mistaken, Sony Vegas is the most widely used editing application on the PC platform so there indeed is a huge market.

 

[Stevet]

There's no doubt the FX1 is a decent unit.

It goes with out saying there will be higher sales for anythong that cost twice as less. Just as a car that cost 60K verses one that cost 30K.

As for the Z1, I do believe anyone considering the Z1, will also consider the HVX200. Yes, the HVX cost more, but it's a lot closer.

Also, I have a feeling, even though the HVX200 is not that inexpensive at 6K, this camera is going to sell a lot more than you may expect.

The HVX200 is offering capabilites never offered in the sub 10K range.

 

[Steve Shovlar]

Wanna bet? :thumbsup:

Sure! The FX1 costs way less and Joe Bloggs can go out and buy one. Would he have ever heard of the HVX200? not a chance unless he is an enthusiast.

Sony have the HD market sewn up with the FX1. The HVX200 will sell well, but if you think it will sell as many your money would be easy pickings.:thumbsup:

 

[Steve Shovlar]

There's no doubt the FX1 is a decent unit.

It goes with out saying there will be higher sales for anythong that cost twice as less. Just as a car that cost 60K verses one that cost 30K.

As for the Z1, I do believe anyone considering the Z1, will also consider the HVX200. Yes, the HVX cost more, but it's a lot closer.

Also, I have a feeling, even though the HVX200 is not that inexpensive at 6K, this camera is going to sell a lot more than you may expect.

The HVX200 is offering capabilites never offered in the sub 10K range.

Problem with the HVX is that joe Bloggs and family want to take the camera on holiday to Barbados for a couple of weeks." Great I'll buy one of these new Panasonic cameras to shoot my holiday in High Def"!

"But hold on", says the salesman. "You can't shoot in high def with the HVX, unless you buy a Firestore". " OK says Joe, Chuck one of those in".

"That will be an extra $2000".

What? You telling me I can't shoot my family holiday on this big expensive camera in High Def?"

"Yes, but at a price".

"Sod that. Give me one of those FX1's. A third of the price and HD with no extra cost. How much are those HD tapes?"

"$8."

"Done".

We are not talking indie film making here, but a guy who wants HD for his family. And Panasonic won't get a sniff at this market with the HVX200.

 

[Stevet]

Sure! The FX1 costs way less and Joe Bloggs can go out and buy one. Would he have ever heard of the HVX200? not a chance unless he is an enthusiast.

Actually, I don't know about that. Sure the FX1 cost half as much as the HVX200, but the FX1 is still a $3,000.00 camcorder.

I can't imagine Joe Bloggs walking into Walmart and spending $3,000.00 on a camcorder without doing "some" research.
Actually, Walmart does not sell camcorders that cost this much.

 

[esperman]

true..I don't think Panasonic is targeting joe six pack on vacation here..more like joe filmmaker, or joe cable network. I do think more pros will favor the hvx200 as a B camera over the other hdv offerings.

 

[Stevet]

true..I don't think Panasonic is targeting joe six pack on vacation here..more like joe filmmaker, or joe cable network. I do think more pros will favor the hvx200 as a B camera over the other hdv offerings.

Agreed!

 

[The Machinist]

Sony has another HDV camcorder the HDR-HC1 which you can pick up at your local best buy. It retails for 1999. I think this is the one aimed at Joe Family.

The HDR-FX1 is at least 1000 more and i would concur aimed at the enthusiasts or prosumer crowd. Hopefully many of the people in this market will be as well informed as the members of this board as to the options available in the HD market and why it might be worth the extra bucks to invest in the DVCPro HD format.

 

[Barry_Green]

I'm not entirely sure I follow all this. The FX1 sold well for a while, but sales are way down now. Dealers I talked to said that basically everyone who wanted one, has one. Probably the same rush of early adopters who bought the JVC HD1/HD10 when it was first released, and who then rushed over to get the FX1.

Talked to 4 or 5 dealers this last week and asked 'em what the "ground truth" is -- i.e., what boxes are moving out of your store? They said five to 8 DVX's for each FX1/Z1, and three FX1/Z1's for each HD100. Now, DVX's aren't exactly available at consumer shops, so where are they finding out about 'em? I would say that whoever said that a $3,000 purchaser is going to do his research was probably spot-on.

Now, granted, those are video retailers/pro shops (and big ones), not the SonyStyle store or Fry's (which are places where you can buy an FX1, but not a Z1). I think the FX1 will continue to sell, as it has a nicely defined market niche -- it's half the cost of the HVX or HD100, and 1/3 the cost of the XLH1, so it's the only viable high-def entry at its price point. And it's sold at consumer shops like SonyStyle and Fry's, unlike all the others.

But in video shops? In Birns & Sawyer, or Abel, or EVS, or B&H, or any of those type of places? I expect the HVX to outsell the Z1 by at least 3 to 1, and outsell the Canon and JVC by a bare minimum of 5 to 1. Within one year's time I would not be surprised if there were more HVX's in the installed base than all $4,000+ HDV camcorders combined (obviously the FX1 and HC1 enjoy unique status since they're sold at consumer stores and are not in direct competition with the HVX/Z1/HD100/XLH1).

Then again, I imagine it's possible we may see history repeat itself again with a wave of early adopters followed by lack of mass adoption. When the HD1 first came out it was a very strong seller until initial demand was sated. Now it's discontinued and JVC was giving an HD10 away as a door prize at last NAB. When the FX1 and Z1 first came out it was in very strong demand, but it's way way down now. When the HD100 first came out it was tough to get one, now dealers are sitting on unsold stock. Will the HVX repeat that pattern? Possibly. Maybe the massive backorders will get filled and there won't be an ongoing demand. That remains to be seen. Let's check back in a year and see how it all turned out!

 

[Haakon]

Then again, I imagine it's possible we may see history repeat itself again with a wave of early adopters followed by lack of mass adoption. Will the HVX repeat that pattern? Possibly. Maybe the massive backorders will get filled and there won't be an ongoing demand.

I'm betting that the demand will continue, as the HVX offers for the HD filmmaker exactly what the DVX did for the SD filmmaker when it was announced. The FX1 had the advantage of being the first truly viable HD camcorder, and it sold a good share based on that platform alone. But as you've pointed out, sales have gone by the wayside. No filmmaker at this point, indie or professional, is going to want to invest in a system that doesn't do 24p. That's where Sony missed the mark completely - and it's wholly their fault, as they already had the success of the DVX to look at as a model. The HVX is more or less a "super DVX;" it offers the same 24p and cinegamma functionality that made the DVX so popular, and threw in Hi-Def chips, solid state recording, and multiple recording formats on top. The DVX's real competition - the XL2 - won't be a problem anymore, because Canon's HD offering is out of most people's price range, has marred their sales by adopting a quasi-24p mode that has most people scratching their heads, and at the end of the day, still records highly compressed HDV to tape. I do think that Panasonic ran the risk of drastically hurting themselves by announcing the HVX almost 2 years ago (the project truly started way back as that balsa wood mockup) and taking so long to deliver. But after seeing what all of the competition has to offer - if you're a filmmaker, anyway - to me, there really is no competition. It was Panasonic's game to lose, and nobody else stepped up to the plate. I believe that the HVX will continue to revolutionize digital filmmaking and enable users in the same ways the DVX has, and be a strong seller well into the future.

 

[Opcode]

When I was buying my hvx from Sammy's, the guy told me that Digital Domain just bought 8 hvx's. For what reason specifically? I don't know but I think it may be an inexpensive options for studios and in particular vfx studios to use hvx for auxillary capture devices for plates, references and dozens of useful applications. And I think the fast P2 workflow has alot to do with it. I wouldn't be too surprised if decent chunk of sale go to new applications that may not have considered using video before, hd or otherwise.

 

[Tzedekh]

When I was buying my hvx from Sammy's, the guy told me that Digital Domain just bought 8 hvx's. For what reason specifically? I don't know but I think it may be an inexpensive options for studios and in particular vfx studios to use hvx for auxillary capture devices for plates, references and dozens of useful applications.

Plates are undoubtedly the reason, especially if the footage is mapped to a less-than-full-screen poly. That effectively ups the resolution per unit of screen width or height. And it can be in true 24 fps rather than 30 fps.

 

[xray]

The HVX is a miracle cam, and gives more, anyway it looks like that. But important for a great market share is a intelligent transformation period from SD to HD. If the HVX gives quality DVC-Pro50 and DV shoots it can give you an extra argument to buy it. The Sony is on tape, and only that is bridging the gap between the traditional shoot and the future shoot, it is HDV, it is DVcam and it is tape.

Btw, Sony sold a lot of Z1´s and FX1´s and is filling the gap with the small factor HVR-A1. HVX has the weight to communicate the P2 concept.

 

[Ted Ramasola]

Barry said;
" Now, DVX's aren't exactly available at consumer shops, so where are they finding out about 'em? I would say that whoever said that a $3,000 purchaser is going to do his research was probably spot-on."

Thats right, people spending that money do their homework. Where? Well, in my case , HERE! thats why this is a forum thats Gods sent for us working in this industry.

My location is on an Island in the middle of the pacific where if you drive straight for 4 hours youll be back where you started, but STILL, we got broadband thats connected so we listen to you guys, and learn.

Thanks a lot Barry for keeping THE WORLD informed.

 

[MattC]

I think demand will continue at a slower pace for some time, but obviously it will dwindle. I think given the market this camera is aimed at and the cost of it, there will be many folks (like me) who will want to buy one, but who simply can't make the transition at this time for financial reasons. But as moving to HD get less expensive (not just the price of the camera, which Panny has done a great job with) but everything else that's involved, then we will make the switch (after our piggy banks fill).

Some may feel, as many have stated, that if you don't need to go HD, right now may not be the best time, it may be beneficial to wait a while. Personally, I don't share this view as I think all the players have staked out their position and will remain fairly planted there over say the next three to five years. So if you're an indie filmmaker and you're looking to go HD (and Barry doesn't convince Panny to make the dream cam) your only real option is the HVX and it will remain that way for at least a few years. What WILL be interesting to see (as is happening already) is how the third party manufacturers will respond to the various offerings and so far, it looks like the are responding exceptionally well to the HVX.

Just my $.02

Matt

 

[stephenlnoe]

...I would not be surprised if there were more HVX's in the installed base than all $4,000+ HDV camcorders combined (obviously the FX1 and HC1 enjoy unique status since they're sold at consumer stores and are not in direct competition with the HVX/Z1/HD100/XLH1)...!

I'd be surprised, very surprised.

We'll see...

 

[filmkid]

I think that much of this discussion misses the point. I shoot stills as well as writing and producing film and video. In the stills world, Canon and Nikon are arguably the biggest players in prosumer and professional equipment. Ever since the introduction of the 10D, Canon has been the acknowledged technological leader in digital still imaging. Recently they introduced the 5D, which is garnering rave reviews and providing Canon with yet another winning product - both with buyers and in the all-important technical press.
I think that Panasonic surged ahead of the video field with the DVX100 and 100a in much the same way that Canon did with the 10D. And the HVX200 is such a startling technological leap forward that it will keep the competitors scratching their heads and burning the midnight oil in their design departments for the forseeable future.
Sony will sell their products, so will JVC, so will everyone else - but Panasonic will get a huge boost with their reputation for being on the cutting edge of technology. It will spread throughout their product line, and the professional buyer with deep pockets will read the great press about the HVX200 and consider some of Panasonic's other high- end cameras and equipment. It's all about public perception, and right now Panasonic is holding all the cards...