Doug Jensen
Carbonite Member
They typically call a state when their model determines that the probability of victory for the declared victor is greater than some very high threshold. 99.99% or something. And it's not based on exit polls. It's based on the trends from partial results in the current election as well as historical results from previous elections. For example, if a candidate needs to win 60% of the remaining vote, but the entirety of the remaining vote comes from districts that historically have gone for the opposing party, then his odds are looking very bad. In fact, the AP no longer conducts exit polls. https://www.ap.org/about/our-role-in...-we-call-races
When is the last time you remember a state being called for a candidate by the AP and then reversed after all the votes are counted?
I'm using their Biden call as an indicator or journalistic integrity because Fox is known for being friendly to the GOP. Calling Arizona for Biden (especially when no one else did) is not what their viewers wanted to hear and was not helpful to Trump's effort to control the media narrative and potentially turn the election in his favor via the courts.
This has gone off track and you're missing my whole point: NONE of that has anything to do with accurately reporting the facts or journalistic integrity.