Pandemics, Coffee Shops, and Writing

Talking about the broad picture. Localized epidemics did occur yes. But there were only 8,096 known infected cases and 774 deaths (a case-fatality rate of 9.6%)

Whereas 30 - 50,000 people die a year in the US alone from some strain of Influenza.

Which is why I said nothing but a global panic came from SARS. Sure, there were some deaths with it, as with an disease. And that is terrible for those that contracted it, but overall, SARS barely falls on the radar.

raymondluo said:
People in my country (Singapore) died from it, sure- I had extra holidays with school shut down, but nothing but panic?
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OK, folks . . . stay away from the politics. :)

When I was a kid, I was terrified that killer bees were coming to get me. Why? Because all the media were in a tizzy about their "spread."
 
Deepfocus88 said:
...(But people, don't stop crafting the cool screenplays with viral outbreaks, pandemonium and zombies) :zombie_smiley:
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I don't recall who was doing it, but wasn't it this past year where some filmmakers were asking people all over the USA to submit film clips about a viral zombie outbreak, add clips from where one lived for possible use in a feature film that would use film clips from many filmmakers? Talk about timing, whoever was doing that is getting some great PR off this current swine flu thing. Should also bump up DVD rental revenues for the recent release Quarantine.
~r
 
I guess there are folks here from Mexico, so, is it true now it's normal to walk with surgical masks around, going shopping and stuff?

Sounds pretty unbelievable to me, but according to informations we got here, amm, there are more people with masks outside than those without them.

Please tell me that's a lie and my informations sources are, well, not informational enough.
 
They might push it up a level on their pandemic scale since it is spreading between humans.

Randall, you are speaking hypothetically. Sure, if vaccines were made for everything, transmission would decline. However, the influenza strain constantly changes, almost month to month.

Look at the shots. I have one every year. But two years ago? It only protected against two strains that were out that year. The CDC makes a guess at what strains will be out there the next year. Sometimes they are wrong. Sometimes the strain changes.

But I will tell you this: Right now I am sick. If I end up on my death bed - I will eat my hat and say you were right about the dangers of this specific strain. Until then, don't be too concerned. People aren't going to demand DVDs of Quarantine, but people might and will start buying into it and wearing masks.

And I remember the killer bee thing too. They kept running that in the early 90s. I remember watching specials about killer bees taking over the US.
 
Mattykins said:
And I remember the killer bee thing too. They kept running that in the early 90s. I remember watching specials about killer bees taking over the US.
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I remeber that in the 90s lots of films about those bees were shot....I was a little kid and I was really scared. I even asked my parents if the bees could fly from america to Europe....hahaha... those fims paranoid me, but I loved them.
 
In Japan it's actually quite common to wear those masks. To protect yourself and to prevent unnecessary spreading of diseases.
 
Mattykins said:
They might push it up a level on their pandemic scale since it is spreading between humans.
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Yup. Today Who.org raised the threat level to def con 4. Community outbreaks to be expected, containment not an option. Level 5 will imply pandemic. i would much prefer this thing just fizzle out.
 
"Defcon"? Come on. :)

There are far more pressing things to worry about this. It's all the rage in the media right now, but this isn't 1910. Medicine has advanced slightly since then.
 
I think this kind of thing is so ridiculous because even if it becomes a pandemic and it's spread all over, it's the freakin FLU! WHO CARES?! Only the extremely weak and immunocompromised are going to die. I get the flu every 3-5 years anyway, it's not a big deal, I had one just three weeks ago, and yes, I just returned from Mexico, same symptoms as swine flu. I recovered just fine, it was simply an annoyance and that's it. That's the case for 95% of people. And yet I read that if this spread all over, airports would be empty, businesses would collapse, people would stay indoors, etc. Jesus you'd think this was the plague or ebola or some sort of REAL threat, not a pitiful little flu that gives you sore throat, fever, a cough, just basic symptoms that aren't even worth noting whatsoever.

This whole thing is a yawner. If I wanted to see a big virus sweep through the population at least I would hope for a little excitement. This is a 2 on a scale of 1 to 10. It will only kill the weakest members of society, and they were due to die anyway if they can't even survive a simple flu.
 
Jonathan I think you are right, that it will most likely be yawner. The concern from the WHO and public authorities though is the potential of what it could become, unlikely as that would be. Viruses mutate, this one could change from what it is into something much deadlier. Like the 1918 flu virus that made 1 out of every 3 people ill, and killed 1 out of 20 people on the planet. Unlikely from this flu virus, but it is possible, thus the concern. Partially because this virus has the same basic subtype (H1N1) as the 1918 virus. But everybody including me hopes this is truly a yawner. Even if it is a yawner though I plan to take precautions, I do not even want a yawner pneumonia which would be miserable and would disrupt my writing and filmmaking schedule. My money is on it being a yawner, just planning on a few precautions to avoid yawner pneumonia and to be prepared just in case it were to go worse.

EDIT: Something interesting to note-- the timeline of the 1918 pandemic, that killed 1 of every 20 people on the planet, made ill 1 of every 3 people. Notice how the 1918 pandemic started slow, very few cases for months, before it took off full blown. I hope this current new virus fizzles out, but we should be complacent just because we see a few dozen or a few hundred cases in the next days, weeks, or even month. An epidemic can be a bit like the penny a day problem-- take a penny today, two cents tomorrow, four cents the next day, and so on; after two weeks you have a few bucks, but by one month you have I think ten million dollars (try it on a spreadsheet)-- the power of doublings (like with the spreading of a virus in populations).
 
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Hmm. News release today hints that World Health Organization may raise their alert level soon to level 5, which implies "imminent pandemic".
http://uk.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUKLS541961
I think I will buy a couple more cases of water and a bit more canned food. I picked up about a hundred N95 masks. Just prudent precautions, and it can all be stored for a decade in the basement no problem. The extra bottled water I can use for on set shooting if this thing fizzles out. The number of cases in the news seems small, but this is exactly how the 1918 pandemic started out; epidemics start out with small numbers of cases, the pandemic does not really 'take off' for about 30-40 days.
 
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