ONE YEAR LATER - February 1st, 2006

[ShannonRawls]

Over a year ago, I created a post and made this statement: http://www.dvxuser.com/V3/showthread.php?p=172779
Please go there and read the thread to understand how it went down in 2005.

OK, so now one year later I have been reminded to come here and talk about my "1-year later" predictions and see how well it faired out. So here we go:

SHANNON W. RAWLS, Producer
#1. I believe 1080i will be the majority standard for Broadcast Television throughout the entire world and will remain to be until a HIGHER resultion option becomes available.
On Feb 1st, 2006 - SHANNON WAS CORRECT

#2. I believe 720p HD cameras for television production will never be a standard of the majority and therefore be forced to up-convert to 1080i to be broadcasted naturally making better sense to originate your projects from a camera that shoots in 1080i.
On Feb 1st, 2006 - SHANNON WAS CORRECT

#3. I believe for NOW and the FUTURE that anyone who shoots HD 720p is doing so because of a financial/economic reasons, and if "Money was no object" they would rather shoot 1080i.
On Feb 1st, 2006 - SHANNON WAS CORRECT

#4. I believe the Sony FX1 & Z1 HDV cameras are here to stay and will become staple equipment in most motion picture production.
On Feb 1st, 2006 - SHANNON WAS CORRECT ON THE FIRST PART
On Feb 1st, 2006 - SHANNON WAS INCORRECT ON THE SECOND PART

#5. I believe they will be part of the inventory list in more production companies then any "comparable" camera made by it's competitors by Feb 1st, 2006.
On Feb 1st, 2006 - SHANNON WAS CORRECT (especially for TV stations and ENG)

#6. I believe the High Definition Video format, called "HDV" will infact be accepted for HD broadcast, and will be allowed as a master format to larger Cable HD networks such as HDNet, Discovery HD, ESPN HD, and others of the like by Feb 1st, 2006.
On Feb 1st, 2006 - SHANNON WAS PARTLY CORRECT

#7. I believe, regardless of numbers, comparisons and test charts, that the "HDV" format will in the next 12 months become the 2nd most accepted format next to HDCAM for Television broadcast. (ducking)
On Feb 1st, 2006 - SHANNON WAS INCORRECT (digibeta still wins)

#8. I believe many TV shows that currently originate their footage in 35mm or HDCAM will choose to use the "HDV" format as an alternate capturing format over any other competing format. Yes, that means, more then DVCPRO-HD on the new upcoming HVX camera or any other type of hybrid HD format that will be comparable to "HDV".
On Feb 1st, 2006 - SHANNON WAS CORRECT

#9. I believe (and the numbers will soon show) that Sony will sell and continue to sell more HDV FX1/Z1U cameras then Panasonic or JVC until Sony themselves comes out with a newer version of this camera.
On Feb 1st, 2006 - SHANNON WAS CORRECT

#10. I believe we will see a million dollar+ motion picture movie on the big screen shot with the Sony HDV cameras before any of its competitors.
On Feb 1st, 2006 - THIS RACE IS STILL UNDERWAY. HOWEVER I KNOW I WILL BE WRONG! *smile*

- I believe the CineFrame 24 (CF24) mode, despite its haters and naysayers, will become an acceptable mode to shoot in with the Sony HD cameras.
On Feb 1st, 2006 - SHANNON WAS TERRIBLY & EMBARRASSINGLY INCORRECT

- I believe one of those million-dollar+ movies mentioned above will have originated it's footage in CF24 mode and move on to be a blockbuster hit and the 'masses' will not care one bit and they will say "It looked great!"
On Feb 1st, 2006 - SHANNON WAS INCORRECT

- I believe the producer of that million-dollar hit will be me (dammit shannon, wake up!) *smile*
YEA RIGHT!

MY NAME IS SHANNON W. RAWLS, and that is what I believe
______________________________

If I am wrong on February 1st, 2006. I'll eat my words. *smile*

- ShannonRawls.com

OK, OK....so you guys got me. I'm munching some of my words right now. *smile* They are bitter and taste like crap, but I'm eating away....*CHEESE*

- ShannonRawls.com

 

[vidled]

George likes his chicken spicy!

 

[Barry_Green]

Interesting. Amazing how little things changed in the course of a year.

Okay, here's my update:
I believe 1080i will be the majority standard in the USA, and I believe that 720/50p will be the sole HD standard for broadcast in Europe, until such time as 1080/50p becomes viable. *I believe Europe will completely reject interlaced high definition.
On Feb. 1, 2006 Barry was correct, except that the EBU did weasel and say that while they reject 1080i acquisition, they acknowledged that it was going to happen and that "they would take no steps to prevent it." Eh, close enough.

- *I believe 720p HD cameras (such as the VariCam) will dramatically out-sell 1080i HD cameras in dramatic/narrative/commercial television production. *I believe that by 2/1/2006, the Varicam will enjoy an installed-user-base advantage of 3x as many as the CineAlta.
On Feb. 1, 2006, Barry was incorrect overall because Panasonic didn't have their cam on the market and JVC bungled their launch. But Barry was way correct about the Varicam vs. the CineAlta. Split decision.

Furthermore, I believe 1080i will remain a staple of live/reality show/news production, and 720/24p and 1080/24p will become the dominant forms of video origination for sitcoms and dramatic series. *720p will be used by those stations already broadcasting in 720p and throughout Europe.
On Feb. 1, 2006, Barry was absolutely correct.

- *I believe that for NOW and the FUTURE, anyone who shoots HD 720p is doing so because they prefer the look, and the flexibility that comes from variable frame rates. *If money were no object they would rather shoot 1080/24p, assuming there were a camera that offered variable frame rates. *I believe that there is no film producer, commercial shooter, or other professional production personnel who would prefer 1080i over 1080/24p for shooting films or commercials. *I believe there are several TV production crews who would prefer 1080i over 1080/24p or 720p for their particular types of shows, being game shows, reality TV, news, or other shows that benefit from the "immediacy" of 60i/60p video.
On Feb. 1, 2006, Barry was absolutely correct, and even Shannon has now expressed his preference for 1080/24F over Sony's 1080/60i! Rock on! :cheesy:

- *I believe that rather than becoming dominant, the Sony FX1 and Z1 HDV cameras will be rendered basically irrelevant to motion picture production on April 18, 2005. *The FX1/Z1 will only be considered for motion picture production after that date by a) people who already own it, b) die-hard Sony brand fanatics, or c) people who prefer the interlaced look over the progressive look, d) people intending to shoot dozens/hundreds of tapes, or e) people who simply have to shoot HD prior to the actual release of the Panasonic camera.
On Feb. 1, 2006, Barry was still waiting for Panasonic to put cameras in the hands of users! But I still do hold that the Sony is basically irrelevant to motion picture production; people are embracing the 24P of the JVC, the 24F of the Canon, and the 24P of the Panasonic. So -- right on the subject, wrong on the timing.

- *I believe that the Z1 will be part of the inventory list in documentary production companies, but that there will be far, far more "comparable" Panasonic HD cameras in the inventories of production companies who produce commercials and films.
On Feb. 1, 2007, Barry would probably be correct. On Feb. 1, 2006 -- nope, due to Panasonic not getting the dang thing on the market! Sheesh! :shocked:

- *I believe that HDV will in fact be accepted for HD broadcast, or at the very least HDV-originated material will be acceptable once it's transferred to an appropriate broadcast-station's in-house format (whether HDCAM or DVCPRO-HD).
On Feb. 1, 2006 -- Jury is still out, but Barry appears to be correct.

- *I believe, regardless of numbers, comparisons and test charts, that HDV will be a minority player in the landscape of television broadcast, far, far trailing the prevailing standards of HDCAM, DVCPRO-HD, Digital Betacam, DVCPRO50/25, and BetaSP.
On Feb. 1, 2006, Barry was correct. HDV remains a minority player in the landscape of broadcast television. We should definitely revisit this on Feb. 1 2007!

- *I believe that *practically no* TV shows that currently originate their footage in 35mm will choose to use the 1080i HDV format*, although several (perhaps even many) will choose to use the new Panasonic DVCPRO-HD camera. *I believe that some shows that currently originate on interlaced HD will instead adopt the HDV format. *(*note: this may change if JVC introduces the rumored 1080/24P HDV camera).
On Feb. 1, 2006, Barry was hella correct that no shows ditched 35mm to shoot on 1080i HDV! As far as part II of the prediction, that was rendered irrelevant by Panasonic not delivering quantity shipments.


- *I believe (and the numbers will very much show) that Panasonic will sell at least twice as many of its upcoming DVCPRO-HD camera as Sony will sell of its Z1.
On Feb. 1, 2007, Barry will be correct. On Feb. 1, 2006, Panasonic barely delivered any units, so Barry was hella incorrect!

- *I believe that because there will be more DVCPRO-HD cameras out there, the sheer statistical numerical superiority will mean that it will be more likely to see the million+ dollar picture originating from a DVCPRO-HD shooter rather than a Z1 shooter. *Note: this prediction can only be put into play once the Panasonic is on the market; it's possible that someone will succeed with the Z1 prior to that (heck, Blair Witch was shot on a Hi-8 camcorder!)
On Feb. 1, 2007 Barry will be correct; but as of Feb. 1 2006 the race is still on.

- *I believe that CineFrame 24 will be rejected by all professional shooters, once they really begin to understand the mode.
On Feb. 1, 2006 Barry was way correct.

Interesting walk down memory lane. It's fun to see that barely anything has happened in terms of mass adoption in broadcast. And while we think things will be so different in a year's time, I bet on Feb. 1, 2007, we'll be back here saying "oh yeah? well, 2007 WILL BE the year of HD!"