A swimming pool on a summer day is a lovely dream but Tom was buried without lights, heat and water 3-3/8 days thanks to a Winter storm that dropped a 30 inch blanket of wet, heavy snow. D-tap was an indispensable help from a V-mount battery which kept the iPhone alive. Dishonorable mention for Black Hills Energy that gave repeated false outage information. Friday was spent digging a perimeter to stop the piling snow from smashing through windows. Helpful neighbors plowed a meager escape path for me. Sleeping by the fireplace Thursday and Friday nights, I awoke at daybreak Saturday following an evening of no confidence in Black Hills Energy, scheming the iPhone for a backup generator. The truck made it about 20 feet before becoming stuck. After more shoveling I made it to the road which was mud, plowed 1 lane wide, snow banked for a mile and a half. Once in town I scooped up a 9KW generator, then to True Value for 240V connections to the house electrical. By 5:00 pm I finished hookups, lights, heat and water working again. Joy! A short time later, power was restored.
NVIDIA is the new bitcoin
- Thread starter Tom Roper
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ahalpert
Major Contributor
It sounds like more fun than it is. But yes, climate change has greatly curtailed our snowfall in NY (on an average year). Makes me wonder what's to come. This year we had maybe 3 appreciable snowfalls. Once was good packing snow and I got to build a snowman with the kids. But each time it snowed, everything melted within 3-6 days. It used to be white on the ground all winter.
On the topic of NVIDIA, I remember that I worked with an audio recordist last summer who made a fortune on their stock and was planning to retire to Thailand. I can't remember when he bought in, maybe 2018. Last summer he was sitting on $1.5M of shares.
On Tom's point about making risky bets when you're young -- isn't the average all that counts? Let's say you bet on 5 risky stocks. In 5 years, one doubles and the rest stay flat. 20% return over 5 years vs 25%+ return over same period investing in S&P.
Bassman2003
Veteran
That is one data point. 2 risky stocks could return well and you would be ahead. The most important thing is time. Just invest (in almost anything) when you are young and hold on to the securities. If you pick a winner over 40 years it is yacht time! 40, 50 or 60 year timelines are hard to beat in terms of total return.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Interesting write-up in NYT about historical comparisons to NVIDIA - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/b...ai-bubble.html
Yes, the average is all that counts.
On the climate change, it's all real and it's all temporary. I like geology, and studying the geological record. The Americas, Africa, Asia, Europe were all part of the super continent Pangea that broke apart 200 million years ago. There have been 5 major extinctions. It is believed that if not for the Permian-Triassic extinction 250 million years ago, caused by Siberian, volcanic, coal burning; there would be no human race. While it is worthy for Man's current dominance to steward and protect for all things living, at best it will only be temporary. 20,000 years ago NY was under 2,000 feet of ice, and sea level was 350 feet lower. It's folly to think man is in control of this. As an influence, yes definitely, but it's going to happen regardless, and more extinctions lie ahead including our own. It will snow again in NY, hang tight.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
I, for one, am planning to avoid extinction. CO2 hasn't been this high for 14 million years, and it's increasing 100x faster than it ever did from natural causes. I'm very conservative in that I don't like to gamble when I can't afford to lose, which is definitely the case here. No one knows what lies ahead. I doubt it will spell the end of the human race, but at best it will mean the impoverishment of millions or billions and at worst it will mean their deaths. Certainly, the region I have known and loved since childhood will be transformed within my lifetime.
It will have been transformed for a lot of reasons, not just CO2.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Changes in its climate, which is all I'm talking about, will strictly be due to CO2.
That's not even close. CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Is that what you meant when you said it will be transformed for many reasons, not just CO2? I assumed you meant political/cultural changes.
You think all climate change in the region you have known and loved since childhood is happening 100x faster from CO2 than it ever did due to a natural cause. If you were born around 1984 you would have seen it rise from 345 ppm to 417 ppm, or about 21%. I said it's real and it's temporary because in the history of planet Earth, CO2 has fluctuated from 180 to 9,000 ppm CO2. Species have gone extinct 5 different times, but not all species and not all times, and not all caused from CO2, and not all climate change was caused from CO2 but certainly CO2 as a greenhouse gas is contributing to warming of the oceans, melting ice caps, melting glaciers, rising sea level, and rising average temperature. If you think it won't snow big again in NYC or deep freeze, let's talk again next winter. It just fell here this time instead, and thank you for it, we needed it.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
if there were an asteroid headed for earth, we'd be doing all we could to stop it. that's the nature of intelligent life. we try to preserve ourselves. the argument made in favor of continuing emissions is economic -- it's good for making money. at the bare minimum we should weigh the economic costs of emitting against the benefits. I don't like to make risky bets, which is why I invest in index funds and also why I'd rather take steps to prevent climate change rather than wait to see how bad it gets.
(I keep Vanguard index funds in my portfolio, VEXAX, VFIAX, VTIAX.)
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I tried code tags around this but it just made a mess of it. Feel free to skip.
The end-Permian extinction 250 million years ago was caused by massive volcanic eruptions in Siberia that created a greenhouse-gas planet that prior to, oceans had temperatures and oxygen levels similar to today's. 96% of marine species were wiped out followed by millions of years when life had to multiply and diversify once more.
200 million years ago the supercontinent Pangaea started to rift apart.
One hundred million years ago, from Utah to the Missouri River, from the Arctic Sea to the Gulf of Mexico was a vast inland sea. 70 million years ago the seas retreated and Denver was tropical, and at sea level. The next 15 million years gave rise to the Rocky Mountains, to twice their present height, then slowly eroded away to half their height, buried by their own debris. Where they once stood in places, now a barren plain with only the peaks piercing the surface. Over millions of years, granite rock tumbled hundreds of miles in rivers and landslides. 25 million years ago thick layers of volcanic ash covered the cobbles. Over millions of years rivers flushed out eroded rock most of it ending up in the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers, transported into the seas. What's left are the mountains we see. Similar stories for the Grand Canyon, dried lake beds of the west, the Appalachians, The Great Lakes, Taconic Orogeny.
The same global forces that created continents, gave rise to the Rocky Mountains, the Alps, the Himalayas, The Pyrenees, the Appalachians; plate tectonics, and the same forces that created and continue to create the volcanic Ring of Fire, the Yellowstone super volcano; global volcanism, are the same forces that have the potential to destroy, and you can't change it.
At least five major ice ages have occurred throughout Earth’s history: the earliest was over 2 billion years ago, and the most recent one began approximately 3 million years ago and continues today. Yes, we are in an ice age, currently a warm interglacial that began about 11,000 years ago. The last period of glaciation, which is often informally called the “Ice Age,” peaked about 20,000 years ago. At that time, the world was on average 17°F colder than today. 130,000 years ago, the world on average was 8°F warmer than today. The current global average temperature is 57°F. From 50-75 million years ago, the average global temperature was about 72°F, determined from the fossil record. Ice core samples from Antarctica go back only 400,000 years. No matter what point you pick in Earth's temperature timeline, it goes up, and it goes down, and although man's influence is noted, natural causes are of greater magnitude.
Methane (CH[SUB]4[/SUB]) is a powerful greenhouse gas, and is the second-largest contributor to climate warming after carbon dioxide (CO[SUB]2[/SUB]). A molecule of methane traps more heat than a molecule of CO[SUB]2.[/SUB]
Methane comes from both natural sources and human activities. 60% of methane emissions are the result of human activities, agriculture, fossil fuels, and decomposition of landfill waste. Natural processes account for 40% of methane emissions, with wetlands and permafrost being the largest natural source.
Concentration of methane in the atmosphere doubled over 200 years. Estimates put this increase at 20 to 30% of climate warming since the Industrial Revolution (1750).
What caused Earth's biggest mass extinction? | Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability
Doug Jensen
Carbonite Member
is Canoo is the new NVIDIA? My GOEV stock has jumped 59% today. I'm still in negative territory, but heck, I knew it was just a gamble when I bought it. It will be interesting to see where it goes.
This stock only has one way it can go, up!!!
(Hopefully, you didn't buy it in 2020 when it was $466/share.)
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