I'm planning to do grading in Color. I'm shooting for at the very least some art house theatrical release, and I know you say it doesn't matter what I shoot on, (Blair Witch Project anecdote yaddi yadda) but the content of the story. Still, this Wilt stuff makes me wonder, if it's not good enough for BBC is it good enough for theatrical release?
Good enough is relative.
Indy film is my reason for doing digital video. I just do freelance work to pay the bills between projects. I know other folks in the indy film world who are shooting on the AF100. If you are looking for a sub-10k camera with a true video camera form factor, large sensor, xlr inputs, and interchangeable lenses, the AF100 is your only choice at the moment. As far as we know, by this summer there will only be two choices. If you want to consider a DSLR, that is an option, but I don't see how that is going to give you any better shot at a theatrical release. The Sony F3 with an external recorder is a good option, and it is a much more expensive one. I expect to see some F3 productions coming out over the next 1-3 years.
Plenty of people get into major festivals with 4:2:0. At least the last time I talked to anyone, they weren't demanding 4:2:2. Now, getting a theatrical release is extremely difficult no matter what you shot it on.
The BBC has its own specifications, and they were set high enough to cut out all of the indy level HD cameras at first. All of the people I know who have finished successful independent film projects worked on cameras that did not have BBC approval for their highest end HD. All of the cameras are changing very quickly though. By the time an independent feature gets finished and goes to distribution, the camera that it was shot on is more or less outdated.
If you are shooting a feature, the camera is not going to be your largest expense. Even if you cut and grade everything yourself, you will be out of the job market while you do it.
As far as the AF100 goes, I am grading in color with the native codec without a problem. Being fairly experienced in color, it meets my expectations for this type of camera. I am also watching the Ninja, but I am going to wait to see what others say about it.