NAB 2013 predictions?

Tzedekh said:
I predict that GoPro will announce an improved Hero Black, based on the Ambarella A9 SoC, that can do 4K at 30 fps, which GoPro will tune to allow 24 fps as well. How useful 4K is in such a small sensor is, of course, questionable.
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As an owner of a Hero 1 and a Hero 3, I can tell you the extra resolution is very useful.
 
"Sony PMW300 - replacement for the EX3. Maybe next year"

As far as a replacement for the EX3, I think that it's been "maybe next year" since like '09 or '10, hasn't it? Sony should have released an"EX3R" just like the EX1R.
 
Like others my guess is GoPro or Nikon will be the most likely unless there is a new player nobody knows about. It will be interesting to see what happens but I'm not holding my breath. Being so invested in Nikon glass that is what I hope for but I think it is unlikely.
 
mcgeedigital said:
Nikon hasnt shown any indications it wants to be a part of the greater video market.
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Nikon has not shown it wants to have a dedicated video market. But has shown it wants to be considered along with the others as a viable hybrid solution.
 
jmnpro said:
"Sony PMW300 - replacement for the EX3. Maybe next year"

As far as a replacement for the EX3, I think that it's been "maybe next year" since like '09 or '10, hasn't it? Sony should have released an"EX3R" just like the EX1R.
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I don't know about that, but Sony just released the PMW200, so I can see them putting the same internals and codec in a shoulder-mount, interchangeable lens camera and calling it the PMW300.
 
James0b57 said:
Nikon has not shown it wants to have a dedicated video market. But has shown it wants to be considered along with the others as a viable hybrid solution.
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Agreed, have a D800 and it is actually a great video camera, I'm just saying that i do not see them branching out much beyond that.
 
Simon Shasha said:
I think Panasonic might be the company behind the "big manufacturer making a Scarlet competitor" rumor that is getting whispered around. Maybe it's a 4K mFT/Super35 that shoots to HVEC (H.265)?
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I hope for this one. I am really happy with the AF100. The tools and features and build quality are really great. The AF100a is a good upgrade but I'm waiting for the next thing from Panasonic. I like where Sony is going with the new Fs too. It's said a lot but it is a great time for us.

I would LOVE it if Panasonic made the camera described above. In my dreams I hadn't imagined a 4K h.265 camera from Panasonic. A strategy for raw would be a strong feature on a camera like this. The benefits of raw are a big draw for us. A Panasonic with F5 features would have me selling stuff to buy.

I think that HEVC will not be that great until extensions to the standard support 4:2:2 and 4:4:4 color sampling so updates to firmware would need to enable this.
 
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vanvideo said:
I don't know about that, but Sony just released the PMW200, so I can see them putting the same internals and codec in a shoulder-mount, interchangeable lens camera and calling it the PMW300.
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I hope that you are right. Just saying that Sony has been dragging their feet on an EX3 replacement for some time. I like the EX3 form factor, and don't necessarily need a full shoulder mount like the PMW-320 or PMW-350. Would love to see a replacement in the same price range as the current EX3, with PMW-200 internals and codec. It would also be great if the stock lens was more than 14X, though I expect that would probably stay the same.
 
hscully said:
I hope for this one. I am really happy with the AF100. The tools and features and build quality are really great. The AF100a is a good upgrade but I'm waiting for the next thing from Panasonic. I like where Sony is going with the new Fs too. It's said a lot but it is a great time for us.

I would LOVE it if Panasonic made the camera described above. In my dreams I hadn't imagined a 4K h.265 camera from Panasonic. A strategy for raw would be a strong feature on a camera like this. The benefits of raw are a big draw for us. A Panasonic with F5 features would have me selling stuff to buy.

I think that HEVC will not be that great until extensions to the standard support 4:2:2 and 4:4:4 color sampling so updates to firmware would need to enable this.
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And 12-bit color depth, rather than just 8- and 10-bit. If they offered 4K 12-bit 4:4:4 AVC Ultra via HDMI 2.0 (I don't think 3G-SDI could handle it) or a visually losslessly compressed raw option, the dynamic range were 12-13 stops, and the price were where the AF100 is (or was originally), then I might think it a worthy successor to the AF10X line.
 
While I share your dream I think that'd be a bit of a stretch at that price point but, at the same time, the old "saving features" for the higher end product has changed vastly . . .
Sure, Panasonic could take a pass this time around but that (IMHO) would be kind of dumb when you consider everything else that's coming down the tube.
What I'm suggesting is there is a huge open market at the sub10k price point and to miss out would be kinda dumb...
In the past we used to get that old song (excuse) about development cycle and how long it takes to bring new product to market.
I'm obviously not a camera manufacturer but I'd speculate that unless your investing heavily in new technology that's no longer as much a factor (and if you snooze you lose).
Any of the bigs can take a great, existing sensor, and stick the right components in a box and deliver what we want, right now.
Perfect example: BMCC (once they get past early first out issues). With the exception of a few lucky souls everyone that per-ordered from BlackMagic is mad at 'em but just watch where that project goes 12 months down the road.
 
dregenthal said:
While I share your dream I think that'd be a bit of a stretch at that price point but, at the same time, the old "saving features" for the higher end product has changed vastly . . .
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Considering they've already demoed a working small-sensor 4K prosumer prototype, I suspect the large(r)-sensor version need not be that much moe expensive. Problem is, Sony, in their VG-XX line, has a large-sensor prosumer/high-end consumer video camera, whereas Panasonic doesn't (in fact, their sensors seem to have gotten even smaller), unless you consider the AF100, which costs twice the price of the VG-30, prosumer. We already know that it's possible to manufacture cheap, larger 4K sensors -- the 1-inch 4K/60p Aptina AR1011HS is essentially the "retail" version of the sensor used in the Nikon V1. Whether Panasonic has been working along these lines or cares to pursue this market is another matter. But if they do, I hope they stop hobbling their cameras with 8-bit color depth.
 
dregenthal said:
What I'm suggesting is there is a huge open market at the sub10k price point and to miss out would be kinda dumb...
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I´m really expecting sth above the AF100 from Panasonic, but it´s very quiet out there. Well, Sony didn´t wait for NAB for their F5/55 announcement, so maybe the big players are turning their backs at large fairs like NAB and IBC...
As for specs: 4K or not I really don´t know. I´m guessing there will be AVCintra on microP2 cards as an onboard recording option. Since the GH3's sensor has great ratings in still mode, mabye they find a way of getting more DR out in videomode.
So improved DR, professional recording media, maybe slomo and maybe some ergonomic improvements could put this camera up against the FS700 and above the AF100.
But will Panasonic enter RED/F55 territory...?
 
hunter richards said:
NAB prediction: A plethora of gear I don't need but will want to buy anyway because I'll think it will make me a better filmmaker. (but it wont)
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Who knows, maybe there's a placebo effect with equipment acquisition. Maybe the imagined increased potential represented by a new camera or lens inspires a little extra creativity. It's like some people and new shoes.
 
My big prediction: Adobe will release a video RAW editing product. Actually, it'll probably be adding compatibility for RAW to Premiere and then using ACR as a plugin. Or even better, integrate the Develop module from LR as the interface for making adjustments.
 
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