NAB 2013 predictions?

:smiley_up:smiley_up:smiley_up:smiley_up:smiley_up

Shut-up-and-take-my-money.jpg
 
Looks like a lot of jello when they were shooting the focus chart. Nice image but did not look overly detailed to me, at least not $6k-$10k worth.
 
I'm very confused by this:

goWhy.jpg

I guess I just don't get it? What do you gain by doing something like this? I can understand a GoPro that has a very small interchangeable lens system in keeping with it's lightweight and rugged shoot anywhere form factor, but this I just don't understand.

I'm genuinely not seeing the appeal. Not saying there isn't one, just that I'm not able to figure one out.
 
I saw it more as a "cool" novelty camera than anything else. I suppose it's small form factor could come in handy... but I don't think it'd be anywhere near 6-10k. I was thinking maybe a couple hundred dollars more than a gopro itself. Their day rate is absurd, and I, too, don't see any real practical uses for it in a professional setting
 
ryan brown said:
I saw it more as a "cool" novelty camera than anything else. I suppose it's small form factor could come in handy... but I don't think it'd be anywhere near 6-10k. I was thinking maybe a couple hundred dollars more than a gopro itself. Their day rate is absurd, and I, too, don't see any real practical uses for it in a professional setting
Click to expand...

I agree, I don't see the appeal. It looks like a cumbersome set-up to deal with.

Does anyone think GoPro will eventually enter the large sensor pro market? I'll bet they could give the established players a run for the money.
 
Here's my own little breakdown (which I'm sure a lot will not agree with haha) that I wrote on the BMCUser forums a while back in regards to NAB 2013 predictions:

THE USUAL SUSPECTS

Canon - they have just released their C100. A $6500 camera. A great performer in low-light, good 1080P resolution, but crippled by its unpleasant (in my opinion) highlight rolloff and 8bit colour-palette. They also have the $12,000 8bit MJPEG 1DC, and $16,000 8bit MPEG2 C300 - both great low-light performers, but unfortunately crippled by their (in my opinion) lacklustre codecs. There is also the 4K RAW C500 ($26,000) - specs are phenomenal (I think F55 specs are better though).

There's rumors of a "C50" - but how much more could they strip out of the C100? Maybe there could be a 2K (with the resolution of the 1DC's Super35 crop-mode) version of the 1DC coming? A 5DC?

I really wish Canon would just release a 10bit version of the C300 with 1080 60P for under $8000, dammit! We all know that'll never happen though...


Sony - they have shown their cards with the impressively spec'd F5 ($16,500) and F55 ($29,000), and announced a $5000 recorder that allows 4K RAW at up to 60FPS for the FS700 ($8000). All their cameras are good in low-light, all allow RAW recording at resolutions of 4K, all allow variable frame-rates, all have 14stops of dynamic-range (the 14stops of the FS700 is currently theoretical, when it shoots in RAW, we'll see if it can really hit 14stops).


Panasonic - they have just released a rehashed 10bit AF100 called the AF100A - which, according to a Panasonic rep on DVXuser, is not true 10bit, but rather an "enhanced 8bit" (whatever that means?). It uses a Micro 4/3 sensor, can shoot up to 60FPS @ 1080P, can do uncompressed 4:2:2 8-bit, has built in ND filters, all for $4100. Not bad.

I think Panasonic might be the company behind the "big manufacturer making a Scarlet competitor" rumor that is getting whispered around. Maybe it's a 4K mFT/Super35 that shoots to HVEC (H.265)?


RED - I have high hopes for their Dragon sensor (rumoured to be capable of 18stops of dynamic-range), can't wait to see it, not sure on pricing, but I'm hearing $25,000 - $35,000 for a kitted out Epic Dragon. Scarlet is also an option, cheapest decent kit is around $16,000, and I think a lot of "Battle Tested" Scarlets are gonna hit the market when current Scarlet owners make the jump to Dragon (guess a lot of Epic brains will hit the market too) - however, I'm not sure if Scarlet is capable of taking a Dragon brain due to its ASIC?


THE UNUSUAL SUSPECT

Kinefinity - they have a camera called "KineRAW Mini" (http://nofilmschool.com/2013/01/mini...ice-cost-6000/) coming out - rumoured to sit in the $3000 - $5000 price-range. It has Super35 sensor, shoots 2K 12bit CinemaDNG - pretty amazing for the price, however I wasn't a fan of the dynamic-range coming out of its older sibling, the KineRAW-S35, so I doubt this, being a lower model, is going to perform much better. It has been spec'd at 11.5stops of dynamic-range.


THE DARK HORSES

Ikonoskop - know for the digtial 16mm A-Cam dII - it uses a global shutter CCD sensor that is rated at 11stops of dynamic-range, and shoots 12bit CinemaDNG RAW at up to 30FPS. The A-Cam dII will set you back €9.500. It was only a few months ago that Ikonoskop gave this camera a price-drop of a couple thousand Euros, not sure if they'll do it again by NAB 2013. Could be working on an entirely new camera though?


JVC - they showed off a APS-C 4K camera a while back that had a Nikon-F mount, but no footage was shown and it was just a body behind a piece of glass with a "4K" label on it.


GoPro - they've got the money, they've got the resources, they've got the codec - do they have the sensor and colour-science?


Digital Bolex - Hoping these guys pull through! The 16mm aesthetic is a personal favourite of mine - 12stops of dynamic-range coupled with a CCD sensor is a damn strong combination. I wish they'd design two bodies though - one for the people that want/like the Bolex look/form-factor, one for those that prefer a more modern modular deign - perhaps in the shape of a Scarlet?


Nikon - they also have the money and resources - I would love to seem them enter the video market - they could really do some amazing prices as they don't have a high-end expensive video camera division to protect like Canon does. There is no solid data pointing to Nikon entering the video market though.


Can't really think of anyone else - help me out if I've missed anything (something tells me I have haha).


CONCLUSION

Being someone that has been waiting on a BMCC (since June 2nd, 2012), I'll make my conclusion in light of that; I guess this part is obvious - I really can't see any of the "usual suspects" slashing the prices of their current range of cameras, nor coming to the table with a camera that will under-cut their new cameras, and match the BMCC in terms of resolution, dynamic-range, recording options, and price. The "dark horses" are interesting though. If I had my money on anyone, I'd put it on GoPro (Nikon second) - but like I said before; do they have the sensor and colour-science?

As me for - I gotta be honest - I'm in awe of the dead silence coming from Blackmagic in regards to their MFT BMCC. I pre-ordered the original EF BMCC a month after NAB 2012, then switched to the MFT BMCC in September 2012. I really thought I'd have it in hand by December 2012/January 2013. Patience is running extremely thin. Might have to sell the batteries, SSD drives, ND/IR filters, and lenses I bought for the MFT BMCC. Unfortunate. Was really, really cheering for Blackmagic.
 
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I think there is a real possibility that this years show could be just another show. It seems that nothing ground breaking is going to come out. I do not have any confidence that Panasonic will have very much to show. And it seems like a non-big three manufacturer has a tough time bringing anything to market on time. BMC had a NAB last year that looked like the cameras were almost ready to go... The death of the 2/3" news cameras has really hit this industry as these cameras and accessories were a large profit center for the companies. All that is greatly diminished now. 9 month+ announcements are the norm now. So I am not expecting much from NAB this year.
 
Anything is quite possible. This time last year way less than 0.00001% even knew that a Black Magic camera even existed. It's possible that another head turner could come from an unknown. Though GoPro absolutely has the resources at hand as as well the capital to do something new & amazing if they choose to do so.

M.L.Pappas
http://TWITTER.com/PAPPASARTS

http://PAPPASARTS.WORDPRESS.com
https://www.FACEBOOK.com/PAPPASARTS

BlackMagic Digital Camera Info: http://www.bmcuser.com/showthread.p...mera-Technology-Announcements-amp-Latest-Info
 
I'm hoping Atomos or BlackMagic will offer video recorder
with same 5" 1080p IPS display many Android smartphones have.
 
I predict that GoPro will announce an improved Hero Black, based on the Ambarella A9 SoC, that can do 4K at 30 fps, which GoPro will tune to allow 24 fps as well. How useful 4K is in such a small sensor is, of course, questionable.
 
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