Marketing and business and stuff like that

Oli.S

Active member
Hi there,

I often read stuff like "the HVX won't be as good as a $100,000.- cam" ... "you get what you pay for" etc.

This might be true.
Or not.
In the special case of the HVX I dunno.
But generally spoken, this does not have to be true at all.

Here's what I think:
a) Panasonic tries to establish the P2 System on "the market". Let's leave out, which market. Consumer, Prosumer, etc. doesn't really matter since we can be sure, Pana will take what it can get. They probably know, how hard it can be to push some new technology into a market like this. Forget about facts on stuff like this, we've seen evolutions and revolutions in the past that provided much better technology but for some reason simply didn't get their buyers and therefore died. So, if Pana says: We want to establish P2 in an agressive way, they COULD (I'm not saying this is the fact with the HVX) say: let's build a cam that we would usually sell for $25,000 and sell it for the price that just brings the expenses back in. Or even: "let's sell it for a price that is so low, that we'll make $ 500 loss on each cam we sell." This is simply called investment. Pushing a new technology into the market will cost you money. period.

b) Think of quantities. How many $100,000.- cams get sold during one year? Let's assume worldwide: 200.
Let's assume the production of a baby like that (lot's of handwork here probably because of quantities again) costs you $10,000.- and you sell that sucker to your dealers for $60,000.-
You get $50,000.- for each cam and sell 200 a year that makes $10,000,000
Now you build a cam that sells for $6,000. How many worldwide in a year? I'd say easily 3,000. the production cost will much likely be pretty low since you'll be making a lot of these and therefore can buy some machines and have very little handwork. Assuming production costs of $1000 a piece. Now you give it to your dealers for $4,000. So you'll be making $3,000 a piece with 3,000 units makes $9,000,000.
See how close a $6,000 cam can get to a $100,000 cam in the eyes of the manufacturer?
Of course all these numbers are wild guesses and probably way off, but you get my point - I hope.
What's the rub on this? Well, of course in the figure above you have to see one point: If you sell a cam for $6,000 that is almost as good as the one for $100,000, you will probably sell less of the expensive babies. So your 200 units would go down to let's say 50, giving you a $7,500,000 loss in the example above.
As you see, calculations like that are quite complicated. You can't just say "okay, it costs me $x to produce, so I will sell it for $y" but you have to look at your other products, the products and prices of other manufacturers, the actual demand on the market, etc. etc. etc.
This is called business and managers get loads of money for making the right decissions on this kind of stuff.

So in my eyes the people who say "there's no way a $6,000 cam like the HVX will even come close to the $xxx,000 blabla cam" do not really know a lot about business. It might be what they experienced in the past, but sometimes things change.
Think of cars until Mr. Ford started to build the T-Model on the assembly line.
If you would've told a person in 1910 "soon, an average man can have his own car" he probably would've said "there's no way an automobile will cost that little money".

So yes, there always is "a way".
It's simply the question of: "will somebody walk it?"

The HVX might turn out as a $6,000 cam that is worth $6,000.
But there is - generally spoken - the possiblity that it turns out as a $6,000 cam that is worth $60,000.

Again: I'm not trying to fortune-tell about the HVX in any way, all I'm saying is that things are sometimes much more complex than a simple "you get what you pay for" these days.

Sorry for the bad English, I'm no native speaker.

regards,
Oli
 
I do think your numbers are off: your sales guesses for the $100,000 camera are probably reasonably close. But for the $6,000 camera, I think your guess of 3,000 worldwide is way low: Rush at EVS has already pre-sold nearly a hundred of the things months and months before it's even released! And that's just one small dealer, that's not counting megadealers like B&H, or all the direct corporate purchases by networks and broadcasters etc... I'm sure the goal is probably many, many times more than the 3,000 you guessed. Which makes the HVX make all that much more sense.

People keep saying "they won't do anything that would cripple their big-camera sales." Do the math, and you'll see that there's much, much, much more money (at least in terms of gross revenue) in the small-camera market than in the big-camera market.

The way I look at it, the HVX is a $27,000 camera that they're selling for $5995. It's DVCPRO-HD, and the cheapest tape deck for that format is $21,000. So if you added tape, you'd have a $27,000 camera; but by giving us a P2 recording system instead, they can deliver all the same "goods" but slash the cost to under $10,000 (including cards) or under $6,000 with no cards.

People gripe about how much P2 costs, but what they don't see is that it's specifically *because* of P2 that the camera can exist at all, much less at the price point that it's at.
 
Hmmm...There's still the fact that intry level dvcpro/dvcprohd cameras have 2/3 inch ccd's and removable lenses (and professional grade high quality glass)

Still, ccd technology is always improving, so probably today a 1/3 ccd camera is a lot closer to a 2/3 ccd one. As for the lenses, I do love my dvx's Leica and how it compares to the likes of the pd170 one (which is comparably crap). However, is it better than the 27000$ Sdx SD one? I don't think so.

In my view, the hvx is not a 27000 camera sold at 6000. It is probably a 13000 dollar camera sold as a 6000 one. How do i come up with this number? Well, I figured this is no SDX900 in therms of lens and ccd's, so no 20000 $ camera value (Jan said that SDX footage blown up to High rez would probably look better than the native hd footage from the hvx)

However, it certainly seems to be better than the current hdv cameras (even the new jvc with interchangeable lenses: color space and compression are VERY important in picture quality).

So, if not in the same league as a SDX (sd), but clearly superior to any hdv offer, then it feels like something for the 10000 $ mark. Actually, the 13000 $ value I came up with will just make sense after seing the footage of what it is capable off... I believe the images will definetly look better on the HVX than in any HDV camera. But the difference could not be so noticeable...
For now, it seems that this is a 10000 $ camera sold at 9950 $ (that's the price of the HD usable bundle)
 
Barry_Green said:
People gripe about how much P2 costs, but what they don't see is that it's specifically *because* of P2 that the camera can exist at all, much less at the price point that it's at.

Exactly my thinking. :thumbsup:
 
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