Former FOX studio exec talks about the future of indies

I never buy or rent 'little' indie movies either nor have I made one, from other industry insiders / producers / studio execs I'm told worse about the future, Bill M. painted a very subtle picture of the real indie economy in my opinion.

"Part of that is due to outsiders who always seem to come into the business believing they can do better and yet rarely have an idea of what they are doing..."

Funny, I rent them all the time! LOL But I generally rent them to understand the market on all levels. I want to know the ideas of both the big and small, those with money and those without. I generally find, as already stated, they think similarly.

He talks about box office. who cares about box office in the times of 50+ inch flat screen TVs? Movie theaters will transform into movie clubs, where select movies will be shown to fans. Everyone else will be watching their TVs. They already do.

> I mean if I can buy TITANIC for under $5 in some stores,
> why am I so eager then to rush out to pay $30 or so when
> it’s released on Blu Ray? Is the quality difference that great?

Exactly because the difference is visible, many (including myself) are willing to re-purchase the same titles on Blu-ray. If a former studio exec does not get it, then... I don't know what to say.

Especially not with current prices when a DVD can be purchased for a price of a movie ticket.
I don't think quality is the point at all. There was a thread in the Cafe about when things is "good enough" for the consumer and that's what the whole thing is about. Sure, Blu-Ray looks awesome, it's HD, but compare with DVD it's hard to justify the increased in price to the average consumer. DVD quickly replaced VHS as the preferred standard not just because it looks better, but because it offers many other practical advantages: smaller form factor, easier to store, harder to damage, menus so you don't have to fast forward and rewind the tape etc.

I'm with Huy on this one. The average consumer doesn't see the need to upgrade - heck the average consumer doesn't even own an HDTV. I just got my first HDTV this year and I'm a filmmaker but I don't own a Blu-Ray player because I don't see the "added" value. I'll probably buy one when I want to burn my own movie into HD, but until then - for most people a movie is a movie. It's not a way of life. No one in my family owns a Blu-Ray and only 5 people own an HDTV, most just got the set in the last year or so.

Understanding what people "want" is important in sales. Technology is not the main thing that people want, it's the right technology. I'd bet Apple is thinking strongly on internet distribution of movies directly to your ipod or iphone.

Also there is a "Cloud" technology that people are working on now which you as a consumer will subscribe to, like Cable TV and the "Cloud" will hold all music and movies. And you simply download what you want to see on demand.

Reason I started this thread wasn't to disscourage film makers, it's more for them to get a sense of why they fail and where the studios / distributors are at in a very tough oversturated business, they aren't unique enough to separate them selves from all the other same old, same old low budget movies and now inventory at wal mart is filled with $5 blockbuster movies...

Those who will win will be smart about what they make and how they sell their films. They will hopefully make good films but perhaps even more key they will make unique films that stand out, which means they will not have to compete against the bulk of the films for talent. They won’t look like all the other films so they won’t have to spend as much money marketing them.

I actually am much more pessamistic about the future of indiependent filmmaking, especially those indies who make movies for under $100K. As the saturated market continues, more avenues for sales will dry up and indie's won't get the chance to sell their films, learn and grow. And once filmmaking gets its digital design (i.e. through the Internet, Cloud Concept, etc) then smaller films will get caught up in an environment where they have to compete directly against everyone else, instead of just a direct sale to a distributor and a cool poster to get consumers. Online companies are already bad about sorting by "Rating" or "Views" which will cause many indie films distributed on the net to find themselves at the bottom of the list. And with this technology already present and gaining momentum and with more television shows hitting the Internet, we may one day see a merger of the technologies (TV, Cable, Internet into One Technology) and I don't think it's that far off. So the one distribution channel will be the Internet Cloud and in that cloud people will fight for advertising attention which will leave sub $100K and many sub million dollar indie's in the dust.

But in the meantime, I think Hollywood needs to also recognize that honestly they have not made good movies in the last 10 years. Forget originality for a moment and just think of good acting, good production, good plot twists, good basic story. I find myself not going to the movies because I don't see these things - I just see gimmicks that Hollywood can use for the trailer and don't see much effort in creating a good movie.

Titanic was a good example, but Hollywood must not just search for new ideas like Titanic, but also take an idea and create a movie that is simply good. I mean look at Juno - it was nothing super spectacular or different - 16 year old gets pregnant - there were lots of movies like this in the 80s and 90s, but it was interesting to watch Juno's world and see good acting and plotting throughout without plot holes, and lack of motivation. I can't tell you how many movies I've seen where I could say "Why did the character do that? They wouldn't have done that. They only did that because we need a movie, but not because their situation led them to that conclusion."

Also it's interesting that in this speech nothing was brought up (although brought up in subsequent posts) about Hollywood's obsession with big budgets and throwing money at a problem. Movies need not cost $50 million, most could easily be done even with marketing for less than $30 million.

At least this is MHO
 
Blu-ray is NOT a six times resolution increase over DVD. Blu-ray's maximum resolution is 1920x1080 or 1080p whereas DVD's maximum resolution is 720x480 or 480p.

Six times 480p would be 2880p which is far outside the resolution capability of a Blu-ray. Even my current Red One has less resolution than 2880p.

Sorry Craig, he's right.

If you take HD resolution 1920x1080 and multiply it to get the pixels you get 2,073,600 pixels.
If you take DVD/Standard Resolution you get 720x480 -> 345,600 pixels

If you divide 2,073,600 / 345,600 you get 6. So there are 6 times as many pixels in HD as there are in SD, so yes HD is in fact 6 times the resolution. What you did above would be 6 times the Vertical Resolution, not the Overall Resolution.
 
1920 x 1080 = 2,073,600.
720 x 480 = 345,600.

2,073,600 / 345,600 = 6.

HD is 6x higher resolution. You could literally squeeze six standard-def screens into one high-def screen.

Edit: too slow on the calculator, jls4 beat me to it.
 
1920 x 1080 = 2,073,600.
720 x 480 = 345,600.

2,073,600 / 345,600 = 6.

HD is 6x higher resolution. You could literally squeeze six standard-def screens into one high-def screen.

Edit: too slow on the calculator, jls4 beat me to it.


I stand corrected. Your equating the amount of data with resolution. So then according to this view the data amount a 4k image is 4 times the resolution of a 2k image and not twice as much because your using the square area. I've always just viewed this as it takes 4 times the data to double a resolved amount which isn't actually correct.
 
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I actually am much more pessamistic about the future of indiependent filmmaking, especially those indies who make movies for under $100K. As the saturated market continues, more avenues for sales will dry up and indie's won't get the chance to sell their films, learn and grow.

Keep in mind right now there is an explosion on a massive scale happening with these $1700 dslr cameras. 100,000+ indies movies have been made in that last few years (yes that includes shorts) I'll bet it will be 1,000,000 in 3-4 years (majority being shorts no one will ever see thank god). Keep in mind in 3-4 years $800 will buy you a better cam than the new 7D or GH1. Where does that put the saturated market in 3-4 years? It'll get worse and worse for $200k and under indie movies. Bill M was referring more to the $3m-$30m indies films coming back in 3 years not $200k and under indies films, big difference.
 
If Netflix can get a deal with Time Warner so you can download your rentals through your tv (on demand and not via the net) then it will really help little indies and they could see 10-20 cents on a 99 cent indie movie. Now they see 99 cents on a dvd sold that gets seen 1000 times.
 
I stand corrected. Your equating the amount of data with resolution. So then according to this view the data amount a 4k image is 4 times the resolution of a 2k image and not twice as much because your using the square area. I've always just viewed this as it takes 4 times the data to double a resolved amount which isn't actually correct.
Right, because -- if you think about it, it would take six standard-def cameras to capture all the information that a single high-def camera can capture. Same with 2K vs. 4K: 2K is 2048 x 1152, 4K is 4096 x 2304. So you'd need four 2K cameras, in a 2x2 array, to be able to capture all the detail that a single 4K camera could.
 
Barry,

Will you call Netflix and tell them how to stream their movie library through time warner cable on demand while paying out a percentage to indies, we need this process sped up. I'm beggin you. We know you can do it! :)

EDIT: Ohh yea, factor me in 1 cent per movie, you'll save them millions in postage.
 
Right, because -- if you think about it, it would take six standard-def cameras to capture all the information that a single high-def camera can capture. Same with 2K vs. 4K: 2K is 2048 x 1152, 4K is 4096 x 2304. So you'd need four 2K cameras, in a 2x2 array, to be able to capture all the detail that a single 4K camera could.

I always understood the data relationship but coming from printing where doubling the LPI needed 4 times the data and equated that to a doubling of resolution when I should have tacked the resolution terminology to the data amount.

Thanks Barry
 
Barry,

Will you call Netflix and tell them how to stream their movie library through time warner cable on demand while paying out a percentage to indies, we need this process sped up. I'm beggin you. We know you can do it! :)

EDIT: Ohh yea, factor me in 1 cent per movie, you'll save them millions in postage.
I'm pretty sure they are already working on it... they've already got SD working.
 
Keep in mind right now there is an explosion on a massive scale happening with these $1700 dslr cameras. 100,000+ indies movies have been made in that last few years (yes that includes shorts) I'll bet it will be 1,000,000 in 3-4 years (majority being shorts no one will ever see thank god). Keep in mind in 3-4 years $800 will buy you a better cam than the new 7D or GH1. Where does that put the saturated market in 3-4 years? It'll get worse and worse for $200k and under indie movies. Bill M was referring more to the $3m-$30m indies films coming back in 3 years not $200k and under indies films, big difference.

I agree with you 100% Chip on the sub $100K films as this was my main point, however I don't see the $3M dollar movies doing well either. I think the average budget for an indie that goes to the Box Office will be $20-$30 Million where this amount covers both marketing and production. If an indie is $20 Million then it means the production was $5M and the Marketing was $15M and if the movie is $30M then $7-10M for production and $20-23M for marketing. Making a movie $3-10M could be counter productive. Making a $3M film does not guarantee you'll find a distributor who is willing to put up the advertising dollars to push your movie in a crowed marketplace.

Hustle n Flow barely got picked up is cost $2.8 (according to boxofficemojo.com) If it hadn't gotted picked up by a distributor, it could have failed. $2.8M is a lot to try to recoup on DVD without a Box Office Push. Without the $10M+ marketing dollars you can't blanket the country with enough ads for people to come see the movie. I just listened to an interview two days ago discussing this. So making the sub $20M movie puts you at risk, if you are going to take that risk, you might as well lower your budget to $1-2M and have the Straight-To-DVD option open for yourself as S2DVD movies can make $1-$3M easily. So your investor's ROI is better.

Movie A $20M (Prod/Market) / Box Office $40M / Box Office Profit 40% = $16M / Rental $20M / Total Profit $36M / Investor ROI ($36M - $20M ) / $20M = 0.8
Movie B $2M (Prod/Market) / Box Office NA / Rental $5M / ROI ($5M - $2M )/ $2M = 1.5

Truth be told I think all of filmmaking will change in 5 to 10 years. The whole 1980s-2010s model of making films will no longer be around. Budgets will be created differently and the major studios won't function as they do today. But this is a topic that is totally different from this thread and right now it's just opinion and theory. LOL
 
If Netflix can get a deal with Time Warner so you can download your rentals through your tv (on demand and not via the net) then it will really help little indies and they could see 10-20 cents on a 99 cent indie movie. Now they see 99 cents on a dvd sold that gets seen 1000 times.

I don't see it this way. Because how would consumers even know you exist? The average consumer doesn't go in "looking for" an indie movie, they go looking for something "interesting". The internet revolution, in my opinion, will destroy indies with movies sub $3M and may hurt many that are under $10M.

I look at like this, say I go to Amazon.com and I want to buy some vitamins. I'm going to buy based on rating, most sold, etc. I'm not going to look for the "new vitamin". The Internet lets users dictate what's good and bad, which can be good. But investors don't want to wait until 100 people watch the movie and give it a good rating and then it still takes 10 years for you to recoup the money. They want the money in a "reasonable time", i.e. 2 to 4 years.

Imagine by your scenario that to get back money on a $5M movie it would take 25 Million people to watch the movie at $.20. That's roughly 6% of the American population. I can't think of any indies who have gone self-distribution that have sold more than 5K units. In fact, I know a guy who sold 75K CDs out of his car and it took him 12 months to do it. And even that number is no where close to 25 Million people. Youtube doesn't even get hits like that now.

Internet distribution IMO will really hurt indies in the long and short run for anyone who can't raise at least $20M. It'll only help those who already are established, or for some reason find a way to go uber-viral. And even then remember people are "paying" for it. Would anything go viral if people had to pay to watch?

$1 Million Film via Internet needs 5 Million Viewers
$500K Film needs 2.5 M Viewers
$100K Film needs 500K Viewers

Most Viral Videos Based on MSNBC

Star Wars Kid (900 million)
Numa Numa (700 million)
One night in Paris (400 million) [Paris Hilton Video]
Kylie Minogue: Agent Provocateur (360 million)
Exploding whale (350 million)

But remember most of these are clips and p0rn, LOL not 90 minutes of somebody's time.
 
I'm pretty sure they are already working on it... they've already got SD working.

Heck you can find HD 720p downloadable full length bootleg movies online now! LOL I'm sure Netflix can figure it out. Even Vimeo lets you upload long runtime HD footage.
 
I stand corrected. Your equating the amount of data with resolution. So then according to this view the data amount a 4k image is 4 times the resolution of a 2k image and not twice as much because your using the square area.
This should not be called resolution. This is simply a frame size in pixels.

As for BD vs DVD: sometimes the difference is barely noticeable, other times it is overwhelming. Some titles simply MUST be watched on BD, like Planet Earth.

I do watch streamed content from Netflix, but the selection is still rather small and the quality is barely good enough for my computer screen. I watch streamed movies when I want to watch a documentary all by myself, not when I want to watch a big title on my HDTV together with my family. The quality is barely SD with visible artifacts sometimes.

I don't know what people are talking about in regards to HDTV sets. They are ubiquitous now. You cannot buy a traditional 4:3 CRT anymore. Even if you buy a 32-inch set for say $400, it will be an HDTV set. Costco has three models of BD players that are below $200, I consider this cheap. When BD players cost $50 apiece they will contain the same cheap crap inside as current $50 DVD players. Obviously, I did not shell out $3,500 for a high end DVD player, but $50 is just too low to expect any decent hardware/firmware.

Indy movies? I watch some docos. There are big titles that are technically indie stuff. I don't watch low budget horror flicks. I don't watch horror flicks at all, except maybe those that actually comedies. I don't watch indie flicks with pimpled college students in them, I guess I subconsciously dislike them for being younger than me ;-)
 
I don't know what people are talking about in regards to HDTV sets. They are ubiquitous now. You cannot buy a traditional 4:3 CRT anymore.

And yet many friends and family still have the ol' CRT set in their living room. If it ain't broke don't fix it. I guess?
 
And yet many friends and family still have the ol' CRT set in their living room. If it ain't broke don't fix it. I guess?
For each his own. I bought a 27-inch CRT Panasonic for $330 5 years ago, sold it for $140 three years ago and got myself a 50-inch plasma. But I can admit that I am different than an "average" consumer, I always wanted a flat screen hanging on a wall. I wanted it back in 1989 when they started talking about HD. But I did not feel comfortable paying more than $2K for a set. Now a set like mine costs about $800, which I consider dirt cheap. This is a monthly lease payment of a MB or Audi. I drive a Toyota, but I've got my big-ass TV :-)
 
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