First Epic Shipped

[adkimery]

oh and talking about big markets for me what pushed high def and those area's are two things (name the movie if you know what I am talking about), video games and porn, those are the driving forces, honestly HD porn has enough problems, so lets just focus on 4k gaming, that could take over, and those fanboys would take any increased resolution no matter the amount.

Both Sony and MS have stated that their current consoles are on the 10yr plan so I wouldn't expect any help on that front to push 4k for another 4 or 5 years. But who knows, maybe the timing would be just right as HD might be mainstream long enough by then for to companies to start painting it as old tech.

 

[Kit Hannah]

Both Sony and MS have stated that their current consoles are on the 10yr plan so I wouldn't expect any help on that front to push 4k for another 4 or 5 years. But who knows, maybe the timing would be just right as HD might be mainstream long enough by then for to companies to start painting it as old tech.

Beyond 3d, what else is there to push to sell new TVs and convince people to "futureproof" their TVs? Higher resolution. I promise you will see higher resolution capabilities in higher end Tvs in the next couple of years.

 

[J Davis]

But there must be a happy medium because 1 year is too fast for acceptable technology change at this point.

when it comes to the consumer there is no such thing as too fast. Take a look at the internet, take a look at music, both turn around and reinvent the marketplace so quick
- film and video will follow and unfortunately, you and I do not get to decide on the pace of change.

 

[J Davis]

... I'm holding a little high definition screen 960px across the top and its only 3 inches wide ... thats 320 pixels per inch and I got it for ~$200
now who would have thunk it?

 

[Kit Hannah]

when it comes to the consumer there is no such thing as too fast. Take a look at the internet, take a look at music, both turn around and reinvent the marketplace so quick
- film and video will follow and unfortunately, you and I do not get to decide on the pace of change.

No company in their right mind would turn around technology that quickly. It would be business suicide. Manufacturing takes time, marketing takes time. Music changes because that is something people are used to changing. Technoilogy is a whole different story. The "format" of music is not rapidly changing. Just the titles and artists.

 

[J Davis]

No company in their right mind would turn around technology that quickly. It would be business suicide. Manufacturing takes time, marketing takes time. Music changes because that is something people are used to changing. Technoilogy is a whole different story. The "format" of music is not rapidly changing. Just the titles and artists.

You're not thinking wide enough. Your thinking in terms of one company, instead of an open market place.
Lets say for example the 5k epic takes off and the market adopts it then 4 months later an unknown camera company brings out a black silicon sensor?
Or hologram technology gets discovered and takes over from stereoscopic? Who would have thought that record stores would cease to exist as we know it?
That a cell phone can shoot 720p when it wasn't so many years ago that picture messaging arrived?

edit:
better link for a possible black silicon sensor

 

[Kit Hannah]

You're not thinking wide enough. Your thinking in terms of one company, instead of an open market place.
Lets say for example the 5k epic takes off and the market adopts it then 4 months later an unknown camera company brings out a black silicon sensor?
Or hologram technology gets discovered and takes over from stereoscopic? Who would have thought that record stores would cease to exist as we know it?
That a cell phone can shoot 720p when it wasn't so many years ago that picture messaging arrived? Think broader

I understand that you think it "could" happen. But if you understand the business of manufacturing, you need time to let your product sell. But not only that, there are many other technologies in the marketplace that need to catch up as well. So you make a 4k camera. Well, that means a 4k TV needs to be widely available, 4k players need to be widely available, 4k content needs to be widely available, all of which is not right now and will take some time for the average "consumer" to grasp the concept of needing or wanting it and actually purchasing said equipment. And most won't do it until it comes down in price. It's not just about thinking wide. I could say that "anything is possible", but proposing turnoaround in the market place in 4 months or a year for that matter is completely unrealistic to say the least. Companies will milk curent technologies as much as they can, no need to jump to the next one prematurely. If you read Barry's post, most people don't even care enough to switch to HD, let alone going beyond that. Picture messaging became wide spread, what, 7-8 years ago? but think about how long cell phones were out before that. An "open marketplace" is already what exists, but companies are still interested in making money, and it is not financially feasable for any company or all companies to have 4 month or 1 year product releases before a "major" upgrade to their product. They need to allow their product to saturate in the market, release small upgrades, even to the point where some people will not necessarily need to upgrade and the last generation product is still selling at a reduced rate for all of the people who cannot afford current generation. Unfortunately the market doesn't work that fast because people are still upgrading from many generations before. Another issue is that many consumers need to save funds to get needed technologies and some spend months deciding on which way to go.

 

[J Davis]

I disagree but I respect your opinion Kit. Only time will tell.

 

[Kit Hannah]

link[/URL] for a possible black silicon sensor

New technology is also generally VERY expensive and few can afford to adopt technologies at that price. Companies won't just give it away. Macro Economics is a good place to start - supply and demand... And I think technology to an extent is actually slowing down because things are getting to be so fast that upgrades are not needed as much. A computer from 3 years ago versus a new computer today will still function about the same for basic tasks, inluding web browsing and basic documents, which is what most people use the PC for anyways. In fact, many computers have come out in the last year that are significantly slower (Netbooks anyone?), so in certain aspects technology isn't necessarily progressing, companies are just finding creative ways to make you want what they've got to offer.

 

[Kit Hannah]

I disagree but I respect your opinion Kit. Only time will tell.

That's cool, everybody is entitled to whatever opinion they would like. But time "HAS" told thus far. For us, we like to stay at the forefront of technology. The truth is most people don't care about the latest and greatest of anything except for a select few. The rest will purchase as needed and when budget allows and cost is justified for them.

What kind of car do you drive, Davis? Brand spankin new BMW or somthing a few years old? Can you afford to go buy a brand new BMW 7 series? Do you really care? Probably not, and that's how most people feel about TVs. When their car blows up and can no longer get them from point A to B, they will replace it, but it still may be with a used vehicle, right? But admitedly, there will be people that get a brand new car every year because they have the ability to do so. But those are the eilte (or arguably the foolish). It's their perogative and yours to adopt whichever technology you would like as fast as you would like.

 

[Jay Birch]

There seems to be many places for TV tech to go other than image specs....

When I walked around an electronics store this month, most of the gasps and wows went to a tv that is around 2-3cm thin. It really is a beatuiful thing and i'm sure is making good sales. I bet people don't even look at any of the tech spec.

Ultra thin, maybe even bendable, unbreakable screens could be how things progress. As creatives, we tend to look at the specs that best suit our needs, but the marketeers will look at everything, especially if they think the image is good enough.

 

[Danielvilliers]

You're not thinking wide enough. Your thinking in terms of one company, instead of an open market place.
Lets say for example the 5k epic takes off and the market adopts it then 4 months later an unknown camera company brings out a black silicon sensor?
Or hologram technology gets discovered and takes over from stereoscopic? Who would have thought that record stores would cease to exist as we know it?
That a cell phone can shoot 720p when it wasn't so many years ago that picture messaging arrived?

edit:
better link for a possible black silicon sensor

If everyone start to look that wide enough we could see everything happening. What about those flying cars we saw in the 1950's shows depicting the year 2000 society. We are already past it by 10 years and the car still use wheels. Most of the breaking technology you see take at least 10 years to materialize from announcement to launch. From medical to technology fields. Where is the vaccine against aids or the nano tech battery with ten time the energy density. In fact we are getting there, with constant and steady advances for aids treatment and battery efficiency.

The other thing that is the most important is that this technology is to serve the human being. And until we develop another pair of eye with zoom function like the eagle it is not tomorrow that we will see people running to buy new 4k tv sets when most cannot make a proper distinction between a DVD and blue-ray. I have found it countless times. I think that 1080p will be here for a very very long time because we are human being and when you reach some physical threshold something becomes.... good enough. The concept that red despise so much is the very foundation of human beings, having physical limitation. I am all for 4k acquisition but delivery... it will come because of marketing etc ... but we are talking in terms of decade.

 

[Danielvilliers]

If creative artists through the ages had been satisfied with " good enough" we would all still be watching cave paintings flickering in firelight.

In the end we are human being, we are finite and with physical limitation. Our mind and imagination are two completely different things from our sense (sensor). Physically we are finite, so shall we next get some ultra violet or infrared movies. Taking the example of cave paintings with 1080p is a bit extreme. Does the cave painting satisfy our senses, surely not. But can displaying 1080p images on a 50 inch screen fill our finite sensors... yes. How many people do you know that did not like the imagery of avatar or found it low rez even if it about the same as 1080p on the big screen?

 

[Paul V Doherty]

This thread will become irrelevant come December 2012, party over, oops - out of time!!!!!!!

 

[Yak]

This thread will become irrelevant come December 2012, party over, oops - out of time!!!!!!!

Yes but will we record the end of the world in 1080p or 4K?

 

[Elton]

Yes but will we record the end of the world in 1080p or 4K?

I say let's show the salvage aliens of the future that we had a fabulous sense of irony and etch cave paintings with Red cameras.

 

[adkimery]

Beyond 3d, what else is there to push to sell new TVs and convince people to "futureproof" their TVs? Higher resolution. I promise you will see higher resolution capabilities in higher end Tvs in the next couple of years.

I'm not saying TV manufacturers won't move up in resolution some day, I'm just responding to S. Matthews bringing up video games. Like I said both Sony and MS have said they envision a 10yr lifespan for their current systems and the surprise hit of this generation of console is the Wii and it's only SD. 4k is a lot of res to push for video games anyway. Many console games are natively 720p60 or 1080p30 because pushing 1080p60 plus all the other math the machine has to do (AI, physics, etc.,) can be too taxing for the machine.


-Andrew

 

[J Davis]

The point I was making is not when/if 4k delivery happens, I was speaking in more general terms. If you read my posts carefully you will see that the point I am making
is that speed with which technological advancements are made is not constant. It is accelerating.

What Kit Hannah said is true, a company can slowly release its technology to maximize profits. (eg how many models are there of the Vixia?)
but they can only do so if there are no better alternatives. But this is changing as well because the speed with which technology is delivered to the consumer is also accelerating
and if a rival company can make a better product cheaper and deliver it to the consumer, they will.

 

[Isaac_Brody]

The point I was making is not when/if 4k delivery happens, I was speaking in more general terms. If you read my posts carefully you will see that the point I am making
is that speed with which technological advancements are made is not constant. It is accelerating.

What Kit Hannah said is true, a company can slowly release its technology to maximize profits. (eg how many models are there of the Vixia?)
but they can only do so if there are no better alternatives. But this is changing as well because the speed with which technology is delivered to the consumer is also accelerating
and if a rival company can make a better product cheaper and deliver it to the consumer, they will.

Yes, but Red is not cheap. In the past three years of waiting we know one thing for certain, it has gotten more expensive. More expesnive just means that it's in the hands of fewer consumers. Isn't that what Jim's "manning up" argument is about? He's not appealing to consumers that would hasten the saturation of Red products in the market, he's appealing to "professionals." It doesn't matter how fast this tech changes, it is still a niche market.

 

[J Davis]

Yes, but Red is not cheap. In the past three years of waiting we know one thing for certain, it has gotten more expensive. More expesnive just means that it's in the hands of fewer consumers. Isn't that what Jim's "manning up" argument is about? He's not appealing to consumers that would hasten the saturation of Red products in the market, he's appealing to "professionals." It doesn't matter how fast this tech changes, it is still a niche market.

Hi Isaac, if I were to translate my point to a RED analogy it would be the spec'd scarlet vs the other high end 2/3 cameras it competes with ... but I tried not go down that well trodden road by keeping my post general.
A better example would be to point to Apple and the ipod, ipad and iPhone. How many phones are on the market today? Another great example would be the rapid and recent ursurption of flash by css3 and html5 and plethora of js frameworks springing up. All I'm saying is the pace of change is getting faster, no matter what the industry (provided tech is involved).