Epic and Scarlet release in 2010
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John Caballero
Veteran
Hey! I want one of those to go with my Scarlet!
Otis Grapsas
Carbonite Member
If I told you that some small manufacturer in UK will introduce a car that costs 3 times less than a Toyota Corolla and performs better than a 5 series BMW, would you take it seriously? You would question my sanity and explain that they can't beat Toyota in their own game.
But everyone believed Red when they promised a fully fledged 2/3" digital cinema camera with a raw intraframe format for less than 2,000 euro, even though their other digital cinema product cost 10x more.
The small manufacturer in UK can produce a very good car, even with their low volume production and other limitations. They can think small, they can take a good engine from the market and tune it, use existing parts when possible, develop a good chassis, use great engineering to finetune all details and produce a car that does some things really well. It takes humility to do this and hard work. It will not be as good as the Corolla in some uses, it will not be as practical, it will cost two times as much, but it will find its market and it might even be better in some things than cars that cost 5x more. That's what the Lotus Elise was about. And that's what I try to do in my project and what Red should get back to doing.
But everyone believed Red when they promised a fully fledged 2/3" digital cinema camera with a raw intraframe format for less than 2,000 euro, even though their other digital cinema product cost 10x more.
The small manufacturer in UK can produce a very good car, even with their low volume production and other limitations. They can think small, they can take a good engine from the market and tune it, use existing parts when possible, develop a good chassis, use great engineering to finetune all details and produce a car that does some things really well. It takes humility to do this and hard work. It will not be as good as the Corolla in some uses, it will not be as practical, it will cost two times as much, but it will find its market and it might even be better in some things than cars that cost 5x more. That's what the Lotus Elise was about. And that's what I try to do in my project and what Red should get back to doing.
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Zissou
Well-known member
...4 wheeled vehicles are SOOO overrated... Besides who wants fold-down wings? that is soo 1950's... Try the Moller Skycar.
Or if you prefer a more sublime sophisticated arrival, try the Autovolantor, Ferrari 599 styling, electric and rotary powered, with a big wing to suit the big ego.
...either way, like the Scarlet; big promises, no real groundbreaking technology, just viability and pricepoint. The Skycar has been around forever, indeed the predecessor of the Neura project was US military related and dates back to the 60's, and still no firm release date. remind you of anyone else?
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Or, we can look back to 1908. A typical car costs $2,000 to manufacture and sells, at most, a few thousand units per year.
A startup company which has only ever made variants of one model for less than 5 years comes out and claims it can make a proper full size car and sell it for under $1,000. When your closest competitors are selling similar cars for $2500-$3000. Obviously, they were laughed at and the skeptics dismissed the venture as "scam". But they did make it happen. Model T launched for under $1000. Naysayers kept saying "Oh, fine, but let's wait till it falls apart." It proved to be more reliable than competitors that cost thrice as much. They said no way could this car sell more than 10,000 units. Within 4 years, the Model T was priced at $600 and had already sold 200,000 units.
But that is natural human behaviour - skepticism. Let's rewind 4 years. RED came out of nowhere and announced a 4K RAW camera for $17.5k. That was laughed at too, and dismissed a scam. It was constantly delayed as well. Here we are, in 2010, with RED One having sold 8,000 units where competitors barely sell a few hundred.
Now, this is not to say that Scarlet will surely be here in 2010 and will take the world by storm. No, no one really knows. Everyone is entitled to negative speculation as well. Just because we deem it an impossibility doesn't mean it can't be done. But ultimately, only time will speak for RED. We will have to wait and see when Scarlet releases and how good it is. They are terrible at meeting schedules, but whatever they have produced eventually has delivered on their promises. So far.
A startup company which has only ever made variants of one model for less than 5 years comes out and claims it can make a proper full size car and sell it for under $1,000. When your closest competitors are selling similar cars for $2500-$3000. Obviously, they were laughed at and the skeptics dismissed the venture as "scam". But they did make it happen. Model T launched for under $1000. Naysayers kept saying "Oh, fine, but let's wait till it falls apart." It proved to be more reliable than competitors that cost thrice as much. They said no way could this car sell more than 10,000 units. Within 4 years, the Model T was priced at $600 and had already sold 200,000 units.
But that is natural human behaviour - skepticism. Let's rewind 4 years. RED came out of nowhere and announced a 4K RAW camera for $17.5k. That was laughed at too, and dismissed a scam. It was constantly delayed as well. Here we are, in 2010, with RED One having sold 8,000 units where competitors barely sell a few hundred.
Now, this is not to say that Scarlet will surely be here in 2010 and will take the world by storm. No, no one really knows. Everyone is entitled to negative speculation as well. Just because we deem it an impossibility doesn't mean it can't be done. But ultimately, only time will speak for RED. We will have to wait and see when Scarlet releases and how good it is. They are terrible at meeting schedules, but whatever they have produced eventually has delivered on their promises. So far.
More to the point Red 1 has gone from introduction in 2007 to having 5 Oscar nominated features shot with it this year. And the camera just keeps improving. It has been a 10 year development cycle to this point. Jannard started in 1999 to research the technology. All of the technology that has been developed for RED 1 is carrying forward into the new cameras with dedicated custom chips instead of off the shelf FPGA's.
The technology for Epic and Scarlet is the same. Basic hardware, firmware, and software. Just different levels of processing power and a different sensor. Epic has been shooting in prototype since February.
MX R1's are being used daily, and this is essentially the same imaging technology minus a few features that the new cameras will have.
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Well, Scarlet prototypes have been with RED for a while too. From what we have heard, the key hardware is finalized. And if everything goes according to plan and there are no mishaps, Scarlet will probably be out in 2010.
Unfortunately, thus far, Scarlet development has been plagued by several unforeseen issues, many of them being well outside of RED’s control. If everything would have gone smoothly, we would have Scarlet in 2009. It is likely this could happen again and there will be further delays, so no one really wants to hold their breaths. At least we are getting closer, and let's hope there are no further unpleasant surprises for RED. Let us also hope that the other manufacturers have been working on affordable digital cinema cameras as well.
Michael Olsen
Veteran
This is a bit of a pie-in-the-sky and RED biased post. But it really is pretty much how I see things in this regard.
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I wonder if part of the reason that other companies haven't "caught up" to RED is their internal product development and pricing structure. One thing I'm curious about is the corporate attitude of these companies in regard to product development and release.
For instance, RED delivered RED ONE as a very Beta product. And made everyone quite aware of that. Since then, they upgraded it significantly to become a stable working camera - as proof of that I give the fact that numerous high-rating and large budget TV shows and major feature films (Pirates 4, for instance) are shooting with it.
But since it became usable standalone product, they've continued to give things to the customer - Build 30 offered significant benefits in image quality not only to new footage, but also to footage which had been shot years ago (one of the unforeseen benefits of RAW). M-X was offered as an upgradable option for current RED ONE owners - no need to wait for Epic to get a better camera, just use the new chip in yours now for a portion of the price. On the 10th of this month, RED announced another upcoming build the likes of 16 and 30 to significantly enhance DR, noise characteristics, and color stability. Again. For free. This impresses me.
Now, I don't know a whole lot about Panasonic, Sony, Canon, etc's history. But in my experiences they have never offered firmware that made their current camera so much better. Firmware in the digital camera/camcorder world has always meant fixes and perhaps a minor improvement - menu corrections, sensor errors (ghosting, blurring, etc). Rather, they put the "better overall image out of the camera" firmware on the next generation of camera.
How long did it take Tram Hudson to get 24p on the 5D? And how long did it take Canon? And how much money did Canon make of the 7D simply because it had 24p in the mean time?
Likewise, I've never heard of any of these companies put out an offer...
"Hey, everyone. Just letting you know we've developed a new sensor and sensor board for the next AF-100. It's really great, and gives some wonderful images. Of course, if you have an HVX 200 or 300 starting in August, you can pay $3500 and we will put the chip in your camera. You won't reap all the benefits because of the older hardware throughout the camera, but it will be a big leap forward for you."
Imagine if they did. People would absolutely flip. Of course, I'm sure there are technological walls forbidding such a practice in this specific sense, but its the general attitude I'm talking about.
RED seems perfectly content to aim high and attempt to deliver everything they can with as few compromises as possible based around their own aspirations.
Whereas I'm sure the engineers at other companies aim high - they have to in order to make things like the Varicams - what comes to market seems to slowly dribble drop by drop from a technological tap in relation to how many drops are falling from their competitors.
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I wonder if part of the reason that other companies haven't "caught up" to RED is their internal product development and pricing structure. One thing I'm curious about is the corporate attitude of these companies in regard to product development and release.
For instance, RED delivered RED ONE as a very Beta product. And made everyone quite aware of that. Since then, they upgraded it significantly to become a stable working camera - as proof of that I give the fact that numerous high-rating and large budget TV shows and major feature films (Pirates 4, for instance) are shooting with it.
But since it became usable standalone product, they've continued to give things to the customer - Build 30 offered significant benefits in image quality not only to new footage, but also to footage which had been shot years ago (one of the unforeseen benefits of RAW). M-X was offered as an upgradable option for current RED ONE owners - no need to wait for Epic to get a better camera, just use the new chip in yours now for a portion of the price. On the 10th of this month, RED announced another upcoming build the likes of 16 and 30 to significantly enhance DR, noise characteristics, and color stability. Again. For free. This impresses me.
Now, I don't know a whole lot about Panasonic, Sony, Canon, etc's history. But in my experiences they have never offered firmware that made their current camera so much better. Firmware in the digital camera/camcorder world has always meant fixes and perhaps a minor improvement - menu corrections, sensor errors (ghosting, blurring, etc). Rather, they put the "better overall image out of the camera" firmware on the next generation of camera.
How long did it take Tram Hudson to get 24p on the 5D? And how long did it take Canon? And how much money did Canon make of the 7D simply because it had 24p in the mean time?
Likewise, I've never heard of any of these companies put out an offer...
"Hey, everyone. Just letting you know we've developed a new sensor and sensor board for the next AF-100. It's really great, and gives some wonderful images. Of course, if you have an HVX 200 or 300 starting in August, you can pay $3500 and we will put the chip in your camera. You won't reap all the benefits because of the older hardware throughout the camera, but it will be a big leap forward for you."
Imagine if they did. People would absolutely flip. Of course, I'm sure there are technological walls forbidding such a practice in this specific sense, but its the general attitude I'm talking about.
RED seems perfectly content to aim high and attempt to deliver everything they can with as few compromises as possible based around their own aspirations.
Whereas I'm sure the engineers at other companies aim high - they have to in order to make things like the Varicams - what comes to market seems to slowly dribble drop by drop from a technological tap in relation to how many drops are falling from their competitors.
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Great post, Michael. I have no doubt that the likes of Panasonic and Canon have the best engineers on board. However, they can only do what their company wants. The big companies are profit centers with numerous concerns. They have to answer to their shareholders. They have to be wary of failures. They will only attempt an innovation if it is justified. RED is different. RED is built around the passion of one man (a billionaire, I might add) to create the best digital cinema cameras and make them available to the widest audience possible. RED can take risks. RED can afford to attempt innovations which have a 50% chance of success. RED can even afford to lose some money. The ultimate aim of Panasonic is to turn a profit. The ultimate aim of RED is to make the best camera the people want. (Obviously, you can't please everyone) RED is a unique enterprise. At the same time, Jim Jannard is a successful businessman and is probably as not as crazy as Francis Coppola. RED may be Jamnard’s Apocalypse Now or One from the Heart, but he knows where to draw the line. A product like the Epic 28K. You have to wonder whether the main reason it exists is because Jim wants one.
In today’s age of capitalism and greed, it is almost noble to continue offering users free upgrades, software and assistance. The choice of upgrading sensors, upgrading just the Brain, etc. when other businesses would encourage you to buy an entirely new system.
And what about a direct $8,500 discount to previous customers AND free modules worth several thousands? The option to get a full 100% refund on your RED One for an upgrade to Epic?
Imagine Panasonic saying. "Oh! You bought HMC150 for $4000? Right, just send your HMC150 back, we will send you a brand new AF100. It will cost you just $2000". Nope, they can't afford to do it.
The biggest mistake RED have made with Scarlet is being frank and open with the customers about the development status. You can bet Panasonic have been developing AF100 for a long time, yet they will only make an announcement once every little detail is finalized. No doubt they have setbacks in development too. It is just that the people don’t have an expectation. If RED had just kept quiet and operated like a traditional business, we wouldn’t have been aware of Scarlet’s existence till maybe Summer 2010. We aren't so forgiving to understand RED's unique policy, so it has to be a blunder from RED.
In today’s age of capitalism and greed, it is almost noble to continue offering users free upgrades, software and assistance. The choice of upgrading sensors, upgrading just the Brain, etc. when other businesses would encourage you to buy an entirely new system.
And what about a direct $8,500 discount to previous customers AND free modules worth several thousands? The option to get a full 100% refund on your RED One for an upgrade to Epic?
Imagine Panasonic saying. "Oh! You bought HMC150 for $4000? Right, just send your HMC150 back, we will send you a brand new AF100. It will cost you just $2000". Nope, they can't afford to do it.
The biggest mistake RED have made with Scarlet is being frank and open with the customers about the development status. You can bet Panasonic have been developing AF100 for a long time, yet they will only make an announcement once every little detail is finalized. No doubt they have setbacks in development too. It is just that the people don’t have an expectation. If RED had just kept quiet and operated like a traditional business, we wouldn’t have been aware of Scarlet’s existence till maybe Summer 2010. We aren't so forgiving to understand RED's unique policy, so it has to be a blunder from RED.
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Otis Grapsas
Carbonite Member
Cameras don't get Oscars. People do.
The Ford car analogy does not really apply. The car market was very immature at the point and Ford vehicles were inferior to most european cars. Ford did commercialise it, but he didn't make it any better. Henry Ford did say "When I see an Alfa Romeo go by, I tip my hat." after all. If anything, Model T was the equivalent of the common affordable camcorder not the high performance digital cinema camcorder. Red Scarlet fixed lens is like Alfa Romeo trying to compete with the affordable Ford models. They shouldn't, it would't be much of an Alfa Romeo and they would certainly fail.
The large manufacturers do control the flow of features and prefer small upgrades. But if they could introduce the 2,000 or 3700 euro 2/3" camcorder with the fixed lens, they would and they would OWN the market. They are operating on very low margins to produce the camcorders we use everyday. Their models are certainly not overpriced for that they offer. Actually, they are remarkably cheap. Even a GH1 comes with a viewfinder that would cost 2,000 euro in the digital cinema market. They simply can't do the 3700 euro 2/3" fixed zoom lens camcorder today, and I don't see how Red or any small manufacturer could have an advantage in any area over one of the big manufacturers. Everything is more expensive for small companies, they don't have manufacturing facilities or low cost high volume sourcing agreements etc.
The software/firmware on the common camcorder is not as configurable as that of a digital cinema camera. It's harder to update and improve because most of it is running on VLSIs. Most things are not even programmable. If I get a request for a strange aspect ratio overlay on the video preview, or an exposure aid, I can add it in a few hours. A new gamma curve design or a full change of the color processing algorithms and controls can be easily added also. On a Panasonic these things are either impossible or they will take months. The feature set is more or less set in stone when the camera is introduced. The high end camcorders do have some flexibility such as custom LUTs, but they are still very limited.
One objection I have over a 3700 euro digital cinema camcorder is that even if it was possible, the operating margin would be very low, I wouldn't be able to provide proper support for it. Not the kind of support people expect in this market. In a digital cinema product I expect to have a replacement part shipped and delivered to any part of the planet within one or two days and I also expect to be able to reach an engineer on the phone. You can't achieve this when your gross margin is only a few hundred euro. Support would have to be more like Sony consumer support or one would have to resort to support contracts with additional cost.
The Ford car analogy does not really apply. The car market was very immature at the point and Ford vehicles were inferior to most european cars. Ford did commercialise it, but he didn't make it any better. Henry Ford did say "When I see an Alfa Romeo go by, I tip my hat." after all. If anything, Model T was the equivalent of the common affordable camcorder not the high performance digital cinema camcorder. Red Scarlet fixed lens is like Alfa Romeo trying to compete with the affordable Ford models. They shouldn't, it would't be much of an Alfa Romeo and they would certainly fail.
The large manufacturers do control the flow of features and prefer small upgrades. But if they could introduce the 2,000 or 3700 euro 2/3" camcorder with the fixed lens, they would and they would OWN the market. They are operating on very low margins to produce the camcorders we use everyday. Their models are certainly not overpriced for that they offer. Actually, they are remarkably cheap. Even a GH1 comes with a viewfinder that would cost 2,000 euro in the digital cinema market. They simply can't do the 3700 euro 2/3" fixed zoom lens camcorder today, and I don't see how Red or any small manufacturer could have an advantage in any area over one of the big manufacturers. Everything is more expensive for small companies, they don't have manufacturing facilities or low cost high volume sourcing agreements etc.
The software/firmware on the common camcorder is not as configurable as that of a digital cinema camera. It's harder to update and improve because most of it is running on VLSIs. Most things are not even programmable. If I get a request for a strange aspect ratio overlay on the video preview, or an exposure aid, I can add it in a few hours. A new gamma curve design or a full change of the color processing algorithms and controls can be easily added also. On a Panasonic these things are either impossible or they will take months. The feature set is more or less set in stone when the camera is introduced. The high end camcorders do have some flexibility such as custom LUTs, but they are still very limited.
One objection I have over a 3700 euro digital cinema camcorder is that even if it was possible, the operating margin would be very low, I wouldn't be able to provide proper support for it. Not the kind of support people expect in this market. In a digital cinema product I expect to have a replacement part shipped and delivered to any part of the planet within one or two days and I also expect to be able to reach an engineer on the phone. You can't achieve this when your gross margin is only a few hundred euro. Support would have to be more like Sony consumer support or one would have to resort to support contracts with additional cost.
Michael Olsen
Veteran
Time to refute my own post!
Other companies don't need to "catch up" to anything, because their products are out there right now, making money. There's no need to publicly catch up when the competitor's camera exists only as limited-product in-house prototypes.
Otis Grapsas
Carbonite Member
Red is a business. Nothing is free. You are where the money comes from right? When a company starts making incredible offers you do know that it does not come from their pocket right? The only thing that can possibly back such offers is a very high margin included in the product price. The more impressive the offers, the more impressive the margin.
Take a look at Panasonic's 5% operating margin and 3% net income and tell me what kind of offer you expect from them. They will certainly not trade in your old air conditioning unit, because even with their resources and manufacturing capacity, they have made very little money on your purchase.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/8392069/Panasonic-2q-2009-Financial-Results-Note-e
The point about the Oscars is that Red has achieved phenomenal acceptance in a very short time in an industry that is very conservative and risk averse when it comes to adopting major new technologies.
Scarlet is not realistically a 3700 Euro camera either. If one matches feature for feature the typical configuration of a Sony or Panasonic 2/3" ENG camcorder by adding the various modules to a base Scarlet, it comes out more in the 12000 Euro range. One of the ways Red will get economies of scale with the modular system is that most of the hardware like the EVF, LCD's, various media and I/O modules, even camera control modules, are shared across the entire model line, not specific to any one format or sensor module.
On the other hand, stripped down to the bare minimum with a small LCD, media module and the smart handle for battery and control giving it DSLR like form factor and features, it is pretty economical with no loss of quality or performance. Similar in price to say 1DmkIV.
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Otis Grapsas
Carbonite Member
So they are desperate enough?
The larger camcorders have higher margins, but something like an HPX170 is a steal.EDIT: HPX2700 is also a camcorder with 720p sensors which is a little hard to sell at 40K in 2010.
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Otis Grapsas
Carbonite Member
A full Scarlet package without lens at 2/3" is certainly possible at 10,000 euro and it can include a high margin also.
But the trade-ins can only be based on very high margins:
A Red Drive is a simple 640GB SATA Raid and retails for 900 USD.
It's 2x 320gb drives (2x45 to 2x60 USD?), a hardware raid bridge (20 USD or so), some internal cabling (3 USD perhaps) and some connectors ($20 usd perhaps) and a power adaptor (5 USD?). Less than 200 USD assembled and tested I guess and that's when purchasing parts in retail in single units. That's 700 USD of profit. And there is extra profit on the cable that connects to the camera. That's where the offers come from. You are buying 200 USD of common storage for 900 USD.
I don't even want to think about the Red Ram
It could be 2x 64gb SLC disks with bridge or even a single 128gb SLC SSD and none of this costs $4,500.
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I'm not even sure RED is anywhere near profitable or that the owner cares right now.
My view is that Jannard wants RED to be THE name associated with Digital cinema and 21st century film making... that the end of every film will have a "made with RED" stamp of approval...
This is pure speculation, but I think that he is willing to let a few million go into R+D, staff etc to make this dream happen.
If this is the case, then it is great for us film makers.... a billionaire's dream can really drag the other manufacturers along with him.
I also think the Epic will see his dream come to fruition. The Scarlet is just a stepping stone.
Otis Grapsas
Carbonite Member
I don't see Jim Jannard as a dreamer. The moves are pure business and everything is by the textbook. I don't see love, I see aggression, passion and signs of greed. The high end product (Red One), the attempt to commercialise with a cheaper product (Scarlet 2/3" interchangable lens), the impossible promise of 3K for 3K to gather and keep the interest of consumers (scarlet fixed lens), the focus back to an even more expensive product (Epic). We have even seen attempts on introducing playback equipment of some sort (RedRay).
Jim Jannard's only weak point is that he wants it all. The dSLR users, the prosumers, the professionals, the high end cinema. Jim would do 4K cinema chains, 4K projectors, and a 4K commercial distribution media standard if he could. But one cannot expand to all directions at the same time and anyone attempting this will fail miserably. It's a large complex playground, it's full of bullies and the best spots are already taken.
I really do not see a $9000 / $17500 rebate plus free accessories towards a $28000 camera as aggressive business.
Over the years I have blown hot and cold over RED and there occasional "antics".... but I have settled at the conclusion I stated above. A billionaire making his dream come true, with a healthy dose of business sense and arrogance added to the mix.
Over the years I have blown hot and cold over RED and there occasional "antics".... but I have settled at the conclusion I stated above. A billionaire making his dream come true, with a healthy dose of business sense and arrogance added to the mix.
Barry_Green
Moderator
Well, yes, but I don't know that you can use that argument directly. Films shot on the DVX100 received two Oscar nominations as well. The Oscars have never taken into account what camera something is shot on.
The argument that it's been accepted would be to point at "Knowing" or "Book of Eli" or other major-budget films being shot on it.
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