Coronavirus Impact

[mothmachine]

1.2% might not sound bad -- only 12x worse than the flu. But it is worse than that would imply because in places like NYC right now they are running out of gear and some hospitals are already letting people die because they have to choose who to give care to, so this rate is going to rise wherever that is the case.

It's sure to be a good deal worse yet when the virus really hits crowded poor and underdeveloped areas, like the favelas of Sao Paulo etc. In those places, social distancing isn't even a possibility for most people.

 

[ahalpert]

1.2% might not sound bad -- only 12x worse than the flu. But it is worse than that would imply because in places like NYC right now they are running out of gear and some hospitals are already letting people die because they have to choose who to give care to, so this rate is going to rise wherever that is the case.

It's sure to be a good deal worse yet when the virus really hits crowded poor and underdeveloped areas, like the favelas of Sao Paulo etc. In those places, social distancing isn't even a possibility for most people.

Counterpoint: 1.2% sounds pretty bad. 4 million people in the US alone.

Why is the infection fatality rate proven to be less than 1%? Because the Lancet extrapolated from faulty Chinese data? I'll take my cues elsewhere.

 

[cpreston]

It is already established that the infection death rate is much lower.
I don't know why you consistently are trying to make things look worse than they really are!

Here is my view. There seems two basic mindsets in regards to coronavirus and they seem to be talking across each other. One is, "This is terrifying and the death toll is horrifying. What can we do to stop it?" The other is, "What are the relative risks of this disease and how can we minimize them." Right now, the first mindset is definitely winning out and being pushed by the media and the medical establishment. Both have very good economic and health reasons to do so. For those of us in the second mindset, it is very hard to get reliable information about the relative risks. I think part of the reason is that none of the information exists. We are in uncharted territory both with respect to the virus and to the economy.

Honestly, I would just like to have the option of working. I keep reading anything I can find to get an idea of when that option might be available based on the data. I have come to the conclusion that almost all of the data is junk and/or being misinterpreted. In any case, it doesn't matter because political decisions are not being made based on data. We are just being carried along on wherever the hysteria takes us.

 

[Paul F]

...OK, so I watched too much Twilight Zone as a kid...

My favorite Twilight Zone is a post Rod Serling episode from the remake where a man comes to the door with a box that has a button on it. He tells a couple he will give them one million dollars if they press the button. He also tells them that someone they don't know will die. He gives them the day to think about it. Of course, they start out saying they won't press the button and of course, over the next 20 minutes they rationalize that they should press the button and they do. The man returns and gives them a million dollars and takes the box back. "What are you going to do with the box" they ask. "Give it to someone you don't know". I think they also made a movie with that premise some time later.

 

[OldCorpse]

[...] I keep reading anything I can find to get an idea of when that option might be available based on the data. I have come to the conclusion that almost all of the data is junk and/or being misinterpreted. In any case, it doesn't matter because political decisions are not being made based on data. We are just being carried along on wherever the hysteria takes us.

Look, there is no magic. The virus was an external factor to the economy. Other recessions had an economic foundation, this one is essentially a voluntary regulatory switch that was thrown - lockdown, which resulted in the collapse of labor supply and therefore aggregate production supply. Fiscal and monetary stimulus by the government has limited damage to the aggregate demand. If the demand side is not too damaged, then a V-shaped recovery is still possible. That possibility however recedes the longer this lockdown continues. If this goes on longer you will be looking at a U-shape recovery or even worse. I don't see it coming to that. The decision to re-start the economy will be made not on medical grounds, but on political and social grounds. Quite simply, after the initial panic, people get sick of the lockdown and there will be a political reaction to that - the justification will be manufactured, and will have nothing to do with medical science (although noises will be made in that direction - you can always find a contrarian "expert" to parrot whatever point you wish).

The pressure will be both from Main Street and Wall Street. People can't take much more of the economic impact without major downward adjustments, and people are loath to do that - even if you have unemployment payments, you are not saving and you are not making economic progress. Wall Street can't take it much longer either. I previously cited 3-month CD lockups as the max the economy can take without going into longer term damage that will take much more time to get out from under - April, May, June. It cannot be done longer than end of June without entering a point of serious damage. I don't believe it will come to that. I think regardless of what happens with the virus, you are looking at re-starting the economy by the end of May.

Obviously, this is speculation based on secular trends - what the financial system can take and that sets a limit. Of course, extraordinary events can always rupture any such structures and blow through any limits, but then we're just playing probabilities. Remember, even an improbable event can happen - after all improbable is not impossible - look at the 2016 election outcome, which nobody thought likely - but not impossible. Same here. I think it's unlikely to last beyond the end of May... but not impossible. Be that as it may, for my own plans, that's how I'm projecting my activities and making preparations accordingly - end of May/start of June. YMMV.

 

[Barry_Green]

Glad to hear it! And thanks for the other info, too. What bike do you ride?

2018 Harley Fat Bob.

 

[mothmachine]

I think people get that the economy needs to get started again as soon as is feasible. It's just premature to say when and how businesses get back into gear. I would guess it will in starts and stops over the weeks and months, as we figure out how to do it without endangering each other.

Realistically, it's not going to be frozen up to this degree for all that long, that's just impossible for most people to manage on their incomes. Yet it just makes sense to try to wait it out a few weeks to give time for tests to be widely rolled out and emergency gear in short supply to be acquired, and people to accept that they need to take this seriously enough not to be a hazard.

We're buying time, and getting the information we need that we don't have. That's not hysteria, it's common sense. It irks me how "the media" is demonized for taking this seriously, as if they didn't take the economic impact seriously as well (which is reported on equally all the time).

 

[Paul F]

This idle time has given me time to repaint my 1986 Softail. I've been wanting to do it for years, but I used to do the full automotive paint and HVLP thing, which is a pain when you don't have a shooting booth. I've been inspired by some excellent rattle can paint jobs I've seen on another forum. It's so much easier and cheaper to go that way. I'm waiting for some glazing putty to fill in some dings.

 

[ahalpert]

I think people get that the economy needs to get started again as soon as is feasible. It's just premature to say when and how businesses get back into gear. I would guess it will in starts and stops over the weeks and months, as we figure out how to do it without endangering each other.

Realistically, it's not going to be frozen up to this degree for all that long, that's just impossible for most people to manage on their incomes. Yet it just makes sense to try to wait it out a few weeks to give time for tests to be widely rolled out and emergency gear in short supply to be acquired, and people to accept that they need to take this seriously enough not to be a hazard.

We're buying time, and getting the information we need that we don't have. That's not hysteria, it's common sense. It irks me how "the media" is demonized for taking this seriously, as if they didn't take the economic impact seriously as well (which is reported on equally all the time).

Also - the media is taking a huge hit from this, too. Ad revenues have plummeted and outlets and newspapers are in dire straits. They make their money from advertisers and not their audience, after all.

Plus, does anyone really think that Trump or Boris Johnson would shut down their economies if they didn't have to? These guys are very pro-business. Johnson's in the hospital with covid as we speak.

 

[ahalpert]

Here is my view. There seems two basic mindsets in regards to coronavirus and they seem to be talking across each other. One is, "This is terrifying and the death toll is horrifying. What can we do to stop it?" The other is, "What are the relative risks of this disease and how can we minimize them." Right now, the first mindset is definitely winning out and being pushed by the media and the medical establishment. Both have very good economic and health reasons to do so. For those of us in the second mindset, it is very hard to get reliable information about the relative risks. I think part of the reason is that none of the information exists. We are in uncharted territory both with respect to the virus and to the economy.

Honestly, I would just like to have the option of working. I keep reading anything I can find to get an idea of when that option might be available based on the data. I have come to the conclusion that almost all of the data is junk and/or being misinterpreted. In any case, it doesn't matter because political decisions are not being made based on data. We are just being carried along on wherever the hysteria takes us.

I actually disagree pretty strongly with your take. Most policy is being made by balancing the damage to the economy with the death toll by placing a dollar value on human life ($12 million per person, I've read, and some people discount the 65+ crowd to $5 million per person).

It is only because the dollar value of the potential lives lost is so high that they have halted the economy. If the maximum death toll were 300,000, we would still all be working.

 

[Cary Knoop]

These guys are very pro-business.

Frankly, I would hope everybody is very pro-business, how else would you want to have a healthy economy?

 

[ahalpert]

Frankly, I would hope everybody is very pro-business, how else would you want to have a healthy economy?

Sure we are - but the idea that Trump and Johnson care less about the economy than anyone else and that's why they shut it down strains credulity.

Also, being "pro-busines" usually implies big business, which is different from being pro-economic growth.

 

[Run&Gun]

Also - the media is taking a huge hit from this, too. Ad revenues have plummeted and outlets and newspapers are in dire straits. They make their money from advertisers and not their audience, after all.

Plus, does anyone really think that Trump or Boris Johnson would shut down their economies if they didn't have to? These guys are very pro-business. Johnson's in the hospital with covid as we speak.

And according to CNN, he is now in intensive care.

 

[groveChuck]

Twilight Zone - I love that thought. Are you thinking of the episode where he falls asleep reading in the bank vault? "But there was time now..." I'm pretty sure everyone else just got fed up with our obsessiveness...probably wise. But dammit I hate situations where I have no control.

Absolutely! Burgess Meredith in the vault/reading/glasses episode! Well done, sir!

There are times we have no control, but can trust someone with expertise (my skydiving instructor).
Yet in this ultimate case of trust, it seems so difficult to trust, and who do you trust?

Yes, it's a very complicated disease, with human behavior (a notoriously difficult thing to deal with), hundreds of governments of many types and many levels, rapid changes and conflicting interests. But are the best (possible) decisions being made, and what are they?

Those who lived through the Great Depression were changed for life. Hording, not trusting banks and saving money under the mattress, etc. How will those who survive this pandemic be changed? Compulsive hand washers, fear of crowds?
How will we look back at 2020 in hindsight? (sorry, couldn't resist).

And will we go mad waiting? (on a more serious note- domestic abuse is rising. Globally. That's some ugly collateral damage).
Personally, Dr groveChuck recommends everybody stay calm and have more (consensual) sex. :thumbsup:
Maybe there will be a mini baby boom in 9-15+ months?

 

[groveChuck]

My favorite Twilight Zone is a post Rod Serling episode from the remake where a man comes to the door with a box that has a button on it. He tells a couple he will give them one million dollars if they press the button. He also tells them that someone they don't know will die.

Yes! My other fave episode! Why the hell can't they write stuff like that these days??? (not literally like that, but original, tight stories).

Fiscal and monetary stimulus by the government has limited damage to the aggregate demand. If the demand side is not too damaged, then a V-shaped recovery is still possible. That possibility however recedes the longer this lockdown continues. If this goes on longer you will be looking at a U-shape recovery or even worse.

I've been seeing predictions of a W-shaped recovery, and I'm leaning toward that prediction.

Perhaps the Nyquist-Shannon Theory

Speaking of Nyquist (sort of), I noticed in my Quest For Alcohol that Nyquil and Pepto Bismol had flown off the shelves, too..

Frankly, I would hope everybody is very pro-business, how else would you want to have a healthy economy?

What if the business kills people? I covered the 1996 ValuJet crash into The Everglades for weeks, and learned of the airlines/FAA value of a life vs cost of safety equipment formula. I forget the number, but ahalpert quotes today's number. Actuarials, gotta love 'em...
And Boeing's 737 Max decisions? Very pro-business...

View attachment 138810 2018 Harley Fat Bob.

Sweet. F-ing. Ride!!! Hope you're riding that baby daily, back and forth across the Extremely Socially Distanced Desert!!! :thumbsup:





Random Thought #13
Since I mentioned earlier it seemed like about 10 of us are participating in the thread (at this point), where is DVX ranking in your Time Spent On Site ranking? I think it's top 5 for me, NYT #1.

PS- where's DLD???

 

[groveChuck]

Lastly, speaking of the economy (and of course the market and the economy aren't the same thing), you see the market today?
S&P +7%, AAPL +8.7%, MSFT +7.4%, PYPL +10% Badabing! Today. Tomorrow's another story.
Did Wall Street take happy pills today? Did I miss some good news? (was out doing my mega shop before final 14 day lockdown).
Seems like 2 down days, 1 up day on average recently? The tail of the Bull won't let go?

Personal prep-wise, I ordered a bottle of aloe to mix with alcohol to make sanitizer, but also came across this site.
Haven't ordered from them before, but I got more gloves and sanitizer:
https://www.homeandmart.com/collections/hot-sale
Their Terms seem to have US legal language, FWIW...



And why did I buy their sanitizer?
Because this is the Prioritized state of Amazon and Purell these days (the second item is an off brand. And even more expensive).

 

[Barry_Green]

Maybe there will be a mini baby boom in 9-15+ months?

Yes there will be, and around 2033 those kids' generation will be known as the QuaranTeens.

 

[Barry_Green]

Sweet. F-ing. Ride!!! Hope you're riding that baby daily, back and forth across the Extremely Socially Distanced Desert!!! :thumbsup:

Thanks! 30,500 miles so far... coast to coast once (sort of, the gulf coast to the shores of Lake Michigan) and (as said before) three Iron Butt qualifications. It's just out of warranty, so I'm thinking of getting a big bore 131 cubic inch kit installed (that would bring it up to over 2.1 liters, 2146 cc...) and around 140 horsepower... I think I've hit 1/3 of the states on it so far.

 

[Cary Knoop]

What if the business kills people? I covered the 1996 ValuJet crash into The Everglades for weeks, and learned of the airlines/FAA value of a life vs cost of safety equipment formula. I forget the number, but ahalpert quotes today's number. Actuarials, gotta love 'em...
And Boeing's 737 Max decisions? Very pro-business...

Airlines are a great industry! Do you fly and take advantage of this industry like almost everybody?

Yes, accidents happen but traveling by plane is generally very safe. The airline industry is a great thing, and essential to any nation.

I don't get it, would you like to go back to the stone age?

 

[ahalpert]

Airlines are a great industry! Do you fly and take advantage of this industry like almost everybody?

Yes, accidents happen but traveling by plane is generally very safe. The airline industry is a great thing, and essential to any nation.

I don't get it, would you like to go back to the stone age?

You sound like a spokesman