ahalpert
Major Contributor
No worries- I was just teasing you!
Coronavirus Impact
- Thread starter thefilmaddict
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No worries- I was just teasing you!
groveChuck
U-matic Member
Barry got a ahold of the remote, briefly changed channels :grin: And maybe CovidMania needs a quick switch of channels anyway...
But who knew- Barry Green, Wrestling Fan?
ahalpert
Major Contributor
I'm a little more optimistic about a return to normalcy for a couple reasons:
1. China and Hong Kong recovered their movie theater attendance after SARS even though they were hit pretty bad.
2. We know when an epidemic is happening. Helmets are useful every time you ride, but social distancing is only useful during an epidemic. MAYBE we'll see regular mask-wearing in the West, but I'm not so sure. If anything, I bet people will just keep washing their hands thorougly.
3. I think there is pent-up demand for group activity - I think people would have to be deeply traumatized before they WANT to avoid it.
4. Supposedly the 18-29 year old cohort is changing very little about their habits of going out for entertainment, etc, if it's allowed. And they are the future.
groveChuck
U-matic Member
Random thoughts...
- Cary Knoop, the new WrestleMania (or Marvel) character The Statitician- kills with numbers.
- Helmets don't work all the time, they only work in crashes, they're a prophylactic, like a vaccine against head/brain damage.
- An orchestra and a theater company have streamed here, don't know how they work the distancing.
- Trump said he talked to all the sports league commissioners (Vince,too) and want people at games ASAP, hopefully not too soon.
But I'm wondering if a 1or 2 seat gap would count as distancing, and maybe increased air exchange in HVAC?
- Again, Barry Green, Wrestling Fan, who knew? :laugh:
Is it from life in Vegas, Barry?
And how are the in laws doing?
- Cary Knoop, the new WrestleMania (or Marvel) character The Statitician- kills with numbers.
- Helmets don't work all the time, they only work in crashes, they're a prophylactic, like a vaccine against head/brain damage.
- An orchestra and a theater company have streamed here, don't know how they work the distancing.
- Trump said he talked to all the sports league commissioners (Vince,too) and want people at games ASAP, hopefully not too soon.
But I'm wondering if a 1or 2 seat gap would count as distancing, and maybe increased air exchange in HVAC?
- Again, Barry Green, Wrestling Fan, who knew? :laugh:
Is it from life in Vegas, Barry?
And how are the in laws doing?
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ahalpert
Major Contributor
Right but people don't wear helmets while walking. (And some don't wear helmets while biking.) Wearing a helmet is to social distancing as riding a bike is to living in an epidemic. So maybe people will start voluntarily social distancing as soon as we hear of an epidemic anywhere in the world? I know I will be more attuned and alert next time... actually that was part of the reason the WHO didn't want to call covid19 SARS-2 (which it is) - because they didn't want to panic people who had lived thru SARS.
At the White House press briefings, no reporters sit in the 3 seats in front of another reporter.
God I hope they find some drugs that work soon...
Cary Knoop
Veteran
Another person who warns against basing extreme policy on unreliable data:
Barry_Green
Moderator
I was wondering about that too. I haven't done the math but it seems to me that to implement 6 feet of distance you'd reduce stadium capacity by something like 90%, so I wonder if it would be even feasible.
Although spacing like that would make flying tolerable again. It's gotten so bad that I avoid it whenever possible; I actually rode my motorcycle out to Vegas and back rather than fly. So I wonder how this crowd averse populace is going to react to the sardine-packed airlines going forward...
I used to watch it some 30 years ago. Quarantine has got me looking around, and so I signed up for the WWE Network a month or so ago and have been impressed with the sheer volume of work and the high quality of some of it [/quote]
So, that's a thing... When I first moved to a small-ish town (Wilmington, NC) I looked around for what there was, and found a Christmas Flotilla (or whatever they called it). A big shindig, seemed like one of the major events, and there were warnings about how difficult it would be to park and how early you have to get there and whatnot. So I did, and got a front row seat. And waited.
And eventually, about 10 private boats floated by. They were decorated with strands of Christmas lights.
I couldn't believe what I was seeing. I mean, seriously? Because where I come from, a hotel will put an actual VOLCANO in their parking lot just to attract potential customers!
So, yes, I guess I am more accustomed to over the top spectacles than most folks...
Shockingly well! Thanks for asking!
Run&Gun
Veteran
And this is one thing that concerns me. People aren't "complying" as it is. One of the local governments around here(adjacent county with very high diagnosed infection rate) had to go to the parks and lock all of the fences and tie all the nets on the basketball rims up, because people weren't keeping their distance from one another and carrying on like nothing bad is going on. People are stupid and when young think the rules don't apply to them and they're invincible. I went to pick-up my lunch yesterday from my friends deli. I called my order in so that I could just walk in, grab it and go. There was an older man paying for his in front of me and a couple obviously waiting on their order: a guy, his wife and their BABY. WTH? Seriously? Why in the hell was his wife and BABY in there with him? Why wouldn't they wait in the car? Minimize possible exposure... After I left, I text my friend about it. He replied that that was his brother and his brothers wife and new baby. And it gets better, he said his brothers wife at one point was letting their baby crawl around on the floor of the restaurant. Our future...
Run&Gun
Veteran
Started to mention this yesterday after watching the news. Apparently Trumb wants(thinks there should be) butts-in-seats by August. Goodell apparently said something to the effect of yeah, we do too, but it's not up to us.
Run&Gun
Veteran
It generally has to be well over a seven hour trip before I'll fly, now. Had a shoot come up in FL about a month and a half ago. They said it looks like flights are cheapest to Orlando right now. I said, I'm driving, it's only seven hours. I like traveling on my own schedule. Way more flexibility and more comfort. Race got rained out that afternoon and because I was doing corporate type stuff, I didn't have to stay. I jumped in my truck and was home by about 11:30 that night. If I had flown, I would have had to waste half of the next day traveling home.
Barry_Green
Moderator
Agreed exactly. Although 7 hours isn't my tipping point, I take it further. On the way out to Vegas (1,500 miles) I qualified for two Iron Butt Association runs, 1,000+ miles in 24 hours and 1,500 miles in 36 hours. And on the way back I qualified again for another 1,500 miles in 36 hours.
Normally I don't like to do a run like that, I like to space it out and see the country, but that wasn't a choice this time.
There were years I was flying 100,000+ miles, I held Gold status on three separate airlines simultaneously even. First Class upgrades were fairly common, and flying was fine. But without that perk, it's just miserable and I avoid it whenever possible.
Remember when flying was a special occasion, and people used to actually dress up for the plane? Of course, back in those days 90% of the passengers were smoking too. That was a different world. It's amazing how quickly we adapt and can't even imagine going back to how things were.
Normally I don't like to do a run like that, I like to space it out and see the country, but that wasn't a choice this time.
There were years I was flying 100,000+ miles, I held Gold status on three separate airlines simultaneously even. First Class upgrades were fairly common, and flying was fine. But without that perk, it's just miserable and I avoid it whenever possible.
Remember when flying was a special occasion, and people used to actually dress up for the plane? Of course, back in those days 90% of the passengers were smoking too. That was a different world. It's amazing how quickly we adapt and can't even imagine going back to how things were.
NorBro
Major Contributor
ahalpert
Major Contributor
I didn't have the patience to watch this. But I read an article recently which quoted an epidemiologist who basically said that we need to ABSOLUTELY AVOID the worst case scenarios. So, even though there's a lot of uncertainty and even though the best case and average scenarios might not be that bad, the worst case scenario is so bad that we have to render it impossible.
But maybe once we get more data, if the range of possible outcomes is not so bleak then we can relax?
Cary Knoop
Veteran
More voices critical to the dogmatic government slides:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...te-houses-240000-coronavirus-deaths-estimate/
Another piece of information, a military study shows that those who vaccinated against the flu show an increased infection rate of 36% of the coronavirus.
Note that coronavirus is a family of viruses, the research is not specific to SAR-Cov-2 (it conceivably did not exist at the time of the study), but SAR-Cov-2 is a coronavirus as well!
https://www.disabledveterans.org/2020/03/11/flu-vaccine-increases-coronavirus-risk/
The actual study: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X19313647
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...te-houses-240000-coronavirus-deaths-estimate/
Another piece of information, a military study shows that those who vaccinated against the flu show an increased infection rate of 36% of the coronavirus.
Note that coronavirus is a family of viruses, the research is not specific to SAR-Cov-2 (it conceivably did not exist at the time of the study), but SAR-Cov-2 is a coronavirus as well!
https://www.disabledveterans.org/2020/03/11/flu-vaccine-increases-coronavirus-risk/
The actual study: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X19313647
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cpreston
Veteran
That 36% increased risk is misinterpreting the studies findings of an odds ratio of 1.36. Relative risk and odds ratio are not interchangeable. In addition, the paper states that a similar study found no correlation between the flu vaccine and the coronavirus. That being said, this novel coronavirus is lethal primarily due to our immune system not reacting effectively to the disease. In general, the disease is not overwhelming the immune system and causing fatal tissue decay. Instead, the immune system is overwhelming the body and causing fatal tissue decay. I am sure that a person's history of infections and vaccinations could be correlated with how their body reacts to the infection. It also makes me think that a treatment to prevent the cytokine storm and inflammation should be possible.
Cary Knoop
Veteran
Anecdotal information from China indicated that antivirals can have the effect of a sharp and often lethal bounce-back after the patient is presumed cured.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
That's troubling from the standpoint of flattening the curve. But promising from the standpoint of returning to normal post-pandemic.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
The fatality rate in Germany is 1.4% and they're doing lots and lots of tests and they are intervening early with hospitalization and intubation for patients: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html
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