Coronavirus Economics/Finance

[groveChuck]

So my friend just did a shoot in Manhattan yesterday to showcase a French beauty salon that is supposed to open soon. The producer initially told him to bare-hand his Lumix S1 while filming exteriors and say he was a tourist if someone gave him trouble, but they decided it was best to say he was shooting for a YouTube news channel since news media are essential businesses. He used a Ronin-s gimbal anyway and no one bothered him. Half the people on the street were wearing masks and there was about 50-75% of the usual foot traffic (albeit in a non-tourist trap neighborhood).

His producer told him that some of their clients are coming round asking how they can make shoots happen during the lockdown. On this one, everyone wore a mask and gloves, tried to keep their distance, and the producer asked everyone if they had been in quarantine for 2 weeks previous. (Nobody on the shoot had any other recent work.) Actors unmasked for each shot.

The producer also said a lot of clients are coming to him trying to do agency shoots without paying agency prices. (He still works at an agency but has started his own company where he handles the creative/client side and hires freelancers to shoot, etc.) I think that's a pre-coronavirus trend but if anything that cost-cutting mentality may intensify.

Am I surprised by increased cost-cutting mentality? No. Not in general, nor post-Covid.

Half the people on the street were wearing masks... Actors unmasked for each shot.

Both of these I find really surprising... in New Freakin Ground Zero Infection York?!? Cuhrazy!!!
I think the former even more than the latter, the actors just trying to make a buck, but still... Is it just me?

 

[DLD]

Lighting has gotten so much cheaper too. I remember, in 2013, a 500 bead LED panel was ~ $500 on eBay (but you got a free corona virus sample with it). Now a 500 bead panel is around $70 (and a dozen of Covid masks are part of the package). And the light quality is so much better too - much brighter, with a higher CRI rating. And then you add gimbals and AF and some fast primes and higher capacity batteries and a typical client thinks, "Jeez, 20 years ago, the crew had to have 200 lbs of HMI's and a truck with separate power generator outside and miles of cables and this looks so tidy and so inexpensive that I don't need to pay the gear rental fees anymore".

It was like that in music too. A 20 piece brass orchestra was replaced with a couple of briefcase size Fender amps and a Bo Diddley riff.

 

[IronFilm]

Just got an email from the local Tony Roma's. They're closing. For good. Bad reviews on Yelp did not help. 40 years in the area. Last week they sent notifications that they'd still offer takeout. In retrospect, the signs of a failing business were there long ago. No doubt they'll blame it on CoVid.

Our capital city (Wellington, it's not a big city! Only two hundred thousand people) is having FOUR HUNDRED restaurants closing down (i.e. forever) due to the coronavirus lockdown!

https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/04/bob_jones_on_the_coming_economic_crisis.html

It won't just be the unhealthy businesses failing, many many perfectly healthy (pre-COVID-19) businesses will be going bankrupt.

 

[ahalpert]

Lighting has gotten so much cheaper too. I remember, in 2013, a 500 bead LED panel was ~ $500 on eBay (but you got a free corona virus sample with it). Now a 500 bead panel is around $70 (and a dozen of Covid masks are part of the package). And the light quality is so much better too - much brighter, with a higher CRI rating. And then you add gimbals and AF and some fast primes and higher capacity batteries and a typical client thinks, "Jeez, 20 years ago, the crew had to have 200 lbs of HMI's and a truck with separate power generator outside and miles of cables and this looks so tidy and so inexpensive that I don't need to pay the gear rental fees anymore".

It was like that in music too. A 20 piece brass orchestra was replaced with a couple of briefcase size Fender amps and a Bo Diddley riff.

Obviously you can't DO the SAME things with cheap gear and a one-man band that you can do with the proper set-up. But the VALUE PROPOSITION of the cheaper equilibrium point has boomed. I bought a Ronin-S for a lower price than I bought a Steadicam Merlin years back. And I bought a $130 focus motor to go with it and now I can pull my own focus on the gimbal. I wish I had an AC with a remote unit, but no more set it and forget it for me!

Yes, this mentality probably lowers the average quality (and paying rate?) of what's being produced. But it also means things get shot that otherwise wouldn't...

 

[Run&Gun]

Lighting has gotten so much cheaper too. I remember, in 2013, a 500 bead LED panel was ~ $500 on eBay (but you got a free corona virus sample with it). Now a 500 bead panel is around $70 (and a dozen of Covid masks are part of the package). And the light quality is so much better too - much brighter, with a higher CRI rating. And then you add gimbals and AF and some fast primes and higher capacity batteries and a typical client thinks, "Jeez, 20 years ago, the crew had to have 200 lbs of HMI's and a truck with separate power generator outside and miles of cables and this looks so tidy and so inexpensive that I don't need to pay the gear rental fees anymore".

It was like that in music too. A 20 piece brass orchestra was replaced with a couple of briefcase size Fender amps and a Bo Diddley riff.

Obviously you can't DO the SAME things with cheap gear and a one-man band that you can do with the proper set-up. But the VALUE PROPOSITION of the cheaper equilibrium point has boomed. I bought a Ronin-S for a lower price than I bought a Steadicam Merlin years back. And I bought a $130 focus motor to go with it and now I can pull my own focus on the gimbal. I wish I had an AC with a remote unit, but no more set it and forget it for me!

Yes, this mentality probably lowers the average quality (and paying rate?) of what's being produced. But it also means things get shot that otherwise wouldn't...

All good points. Some of my friends that have been in the business longer than me and used to be on a lot of the big corporate gigs(when they really used to spend money) said that one of the first things they’d do is pull all the lights and stands out of the grip truck and set them up, regardless of how many they actually needed. Not to have them for quick/easy access BUT to look impressive for the client. i.e: “See what all you’re getting for your money?”.

 

[DLD]

In fairness, a "couple of Fender amps" were replaced a decade later with an enormous "wall of sound". So, it's all ebb and flow.

 

[KMR]

So, how many weeks into "this" are we? I still have not seen more than like 5 packs of toilet paper TOTAL, COMBINED in all of the stores I've been into since this craziness started, including Sam's today. I've seen pretty much anything else that you would want, except hand sanitizer, cleaning wipes and TOILET PAPER. It's almost like some of the annoying Family Guy bits(Peter hurting his shin) that go on about five times longer than anyone else would take them. It was funny for about a week or two, but now it's just ludicrous.

For quite a while I was wondering the same thing, until I read an article that gave an explanation. It has to do with the market sectors for manufacturing and distribution. Now that there are so many people staying home, there is a much higher demand for those products made for household use, and much less demand for those made for commercial/industrial use. It's taking time to adjust production and distribution to meet the new demands. But then again, you'd still think we'd be seeing things starting to get a little bit a better by now...

 

[Run&Gun]

So, a few days ago one of my friends says that he was signing his approval paperwork for the PPP and should be receiving his money within two days. That same day I received an email saying to be on the lookout for an email so I could sign mine. Yesterday that email pops up. Cool, because I really wasn’t holding my breath for it. Log in and go online(it’s all on-line through my bank) and start looking everything over and... The amount I had been approved for was about 15% of what I had applied for. So frustrating. We have major corporations with stockpiles of cash(enough that they did stock buy-backs last year) that had billions in revenue in 2019 receiving $10-$20 million from the PPP that was intended to help “small businesses”, but then a lot of actual small businesses either get nothing or a fraction of their request.

So now I have to make the decision, do I take it, or do I say No Thanks and try to get unemployment, since our state finally has the system set-up to handle “us”, and with the fed addition, in just over a month unemployment could easily surpass the loan amount they offered.

 

[juanlien]

I think Corona virus has destroyed everything

 

[NorBro]

Maybe not everything...but in every way; physically, mentally, emotionally, spiritually and financially.

 

[ahalpert]

So, a few days ago one of my friends says that he was signing his approval paperwork for the PPP and should be receiving his money within two days. That same day I received an email saying to be on the lookout for an email so I could sign mine. Yesterday that email pops up. Cool, because I really wasn’t holding my breath for it. Log in and go online(it’s all on-line through my bank) and start looking everything over and... The amount I had been approved for was about 15% of what I had applied for. So frustrating. We have major corporations with stockpiles of cash(enough that they did stock buy-backs last year) that had billions in revenue in 2019 receiving $10-$20 million from the PPP that was intended to help “small businesses”, but then a lot of actual small businesses either get nothing or a fraction of their request.

So now I have to make the decision, do I take it, or do I say No Thanks and try to get unemployment, since our state finally has the system set-up to handle “us”, and with the fed addition, in just over a month unemployment could easily surpass the loan amount they offered.

You can't go on unemployment if you take PPP? I am so confused by everything right now. I recently applied for unemployment in NY but they haven't gotten back to me yet so I can't advise on the process or the turnaround time.

 

[Run&Gun]

You can't go on unemployment if you take PPP? I am so confused by everything right now. I recently applied for unemployment in NY but they haven't gotten back to me yet so I can't advise on the process or the turnaround time.

That is what my friend that just signed his PPP said. He said he had to fill something out this coming week, basically saying he was "employed" again. I thought you could get both, as well, because as far as I know, there are companies that accepted the PPP money and have employees that are getting UI/PUA. Another friend in another state opted to just go for the UI/PUA instead and is getting about $2300 every two weeks. Which isn't bad. I think it maxes out at $950/week here.

I filled out the forms on-line for my state a little while ago, and it's still a mess with questions that are hard/illogical/impossible to answer for people like us. I got through the initial filing, but then a whole list of possible disqualifies popped up for me that I had to provide additional information for. Some of them were easy enough(like the back-dated claim date), but others were more of the same types of questions that apply to "normal" people or that make no sense and contradict early questions or make it seem like you contradicted yourself from earlier answers. I have three things pending resolution right now. I guess that's better than the six or so that it was...

But I still have lots of questions. Since we don't work normal 9-5/Mon-Fri jobs, what happens if we get on unemployment and all of a sudden a job pops up? Not regular work again, but a job. And then nothing again for another month or two. It's just all bad...

 

[ahalpert]

I thought we had to certify each week we don't work? And if you earn more than $500 that week, you get nothing? But in theory you could work one week then go back to unemployment the next? That was my take from doing the application.

But yeah, the whole UI system is not designed for us, nor do we pay taxes into it. This is a really weird situation altogether.

 

[ozmorphasis]

You can't go on unemployment if you take PPP? I am so confused by everything right now. I recently applied for unemployment in NY but they haven't gotten back to me yet so I can't advise on the process or the turnaround time.

That is correct and makes sense if you think about it. PPP means you are taking a forgivable loan to pay your employees. As a sole prop, you pay yourself. The whole point of it is to keep people on their payroll. If your net income is well above UI, then absolutely makes sense to do the 8 weeks of PPP...if you can get it, which is a VERY big if thus far.

2.5 x your average monthly net income. All of it forgiven if you use 75% on your payroll and the remaining 25% on a handful of approved business expenses (rent, etc). There is a cap, but the margin between UI and the PPP cap is large enough that it absolutely can make sense to try for PPP if your net income is in fact well above what UI + PUA offers.

After those 8 weeks worth of PPP, you can of course then go on UI/PUA, but that additional $600/wk supplement is set to end in late July. It remains to be seen what they will do after July 25 if unemployment numbers are still through the roof, freelance work has not rebooted to any real degree, etc.

 

[ahalpert]

But as a sole prop, you don't pay yourself, no? You just take business profits. If you're incorporated (which I'm not), you can pay yourself a wage + take profits. So, how can you use PPP to pay yourself?

Related note - I got $1k from SBA (disaster loan?). Not the same as PPP, right? Anyone know about getting that one forgiven?

 

[cpreston]

I thought that sole proprietors and business owners did not qualify for getting income through the PPP. I thought it was only for paying employees and expenses for maintaining a business. If you use the money for something else, it becomes a loan and you have to pay it back. Is that not correct?

I am still waiting to be denied UI so that I can apply for the PUA. The PUA won't allow me to sign up until I am denied UI since i have W2 employers that have been paying into the UI system for me as an employee. Since none of my W2 employers will lay me off since I am not actually a part time or hourly employee, I am just stuck in limbo. The whole push to get freelance workers to be signed up as employees is causing me a headache. How has this been working out in CA with their gig worker law?

 

[Run&Gun]

My state has UI listed for a year and PUA until 12/26/2020.

I have a W2 client and I'm W2'd through my company, so I pay into UI, but I kept my pay to myself low through my company last year, which is what bit me with PPP, even though the documentation I provided for the first part of 2020 lines up with what I applied for, I guess they just looked at last year.

 

[mothmachine]

But as a sole prop, you don't pay yourself, no? You just take business profits. If you're incorporated (which I'm not), you can pay yourself a wage + take profits. So, how can you use PPP to pay yourself?

Related note - I got $1k from SBA (disaster loan?). Not the same as PPP, right? Anyone know about getting that one forgiven?

I just noticed that I got $1k from SBAD TREAS 310 DES: MISC PAY -- presumably the same thing as what you got.

I think this is the EIDL -- which has been reduced to $1,000 per employee grants. And I *think* that if you get the EIDL, you can't get the PPP... but I'm not sure.

https://www.reddit.com/r/smallbusin..._treas_310_misc_pay_eidg_what_does_this_mean/

If it had been a loan, it would have been done through a private bank, which is handling all the loans, instead of going through the SBA.

 

[ahalpert]

My state has UI listed for a year and PUA until 12/26/2020.

I have a W2 client and I'm W2'd through my company, so I pay into UI, but I kept my pay to myself low through my company last year, which is what bit me with PPP, even though the documentation I provided for the first part of 2020 lines up with what I applied for, I guess they just looked at last year.

But PUA stops paying $600/week after late July, right? Then you drop down to receiving regular UI through December. But at least you can get something instead of nothing.

 

[ahalpert]

I just noticed that I got $1k from SBAD TREAS 310 DES: MISC PAY -- presumably the same thing as what you got.

I think this is the EIDL -- which has been reduced to $1,000 per employee grants. And I *think* that if you get the EIDL, you can't get the PPP... but I'm not sure.

https://www.reddit.com/r/smallbusin..._treas_310_misc_pay_eidg_what_does_this_mean/

If it had been a loan, it would have been done through a private bank, which is handling all the loans, instead of going through the SBA.

So you think we don't need to pay that back?