Coppola, "Cinema world falling apart"

There will always be a market of people that want to be entertained. The evolution of that may be painful and frightening. But the need will never go away.
 
Expect the Weinsteins & MGM to be out of business in 12 months. MGM is $5 Billion in debt and facing serious issues right now as are the Weinsteins with their employees jumping ship before the final downfall comes.
 
There has been a common refrain during past economic downturns that entertainment businesses thrive during depressions. But the numbers don't seem to follow, so much entertainment is free now. Gaming has eaten into the young male demographic, thru Red Box you can rent DVDs for $1 three months after the theatrical release, you can skip commercials so advertisers are paying less, content is available free online, release windows are shrinking. That's having a serious cumulative effect on revenue.

The studios are reducing above the line costs, but I've had a few execs tell me that the "fixed cost" of the below the line unions are next.
 
this has become a GREAT thread...i never went to proper film school, but i'm learning a lot of fantastic history here...don't stop!
 
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/957vercv.asp?pg=1

“The eight most successful movies over the course of the year’s first eight months have collectively grossed $2.7 billion, up from $2.3 billion for the entirety of 2008. And what is most striking about these eight films is that not a single one of them, not a single one, features an unmistakable star. Three of them are cartoons (Up, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, and Monsters vs. Aliens). Three are sequels whose top-line talents are incidental to their success (Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, the sixth Harry Potter, and X-Men Origins: Wolverine). Two feature relative nobodies (Star Trek and The Hangover). The first traditional star appears in the ninth-place film, which is itself a high-concept sequel in which the star mostly stands around (Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian with Ben Stiller). It’s not until tenth place that a classic vehicle hits the list, Sandra Bullock’s The Proposal. And after that you have to jump down to 15th place to find Tom Hanks in Angels and Demons. Will Ferrell’s movie tanked. Julia Roberts laid an egg. Adam Sandler couldn’t sell a ticket. Johnny Depp disappointed. Denzel Washington and John Travolta bombed together. Instead, the movies whose successes depended on their strong leading performances were the ones featuring the 57-year-old Irishman Liam Neeson (Taken, $145 million) and the out-of-work TV comedian Kevin James (Paul Blart: Mall Cop, $146 million).
“The 2009 box-office numbers offer the most dramatic evidence yet that the system around which the motion-picture business has oriented itself almost since its creation in the early years of the last century–the star system, which it largely invented–has finally reached its end.”
 
Zak Forsman said:
And the Weinsteins are a bad, bad example right now. Even they are not immune to the downturn. The Weinstein company is cutting back their slate. Their former digs, Miramax, has just been gutted.
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I only used them as an example of people who run their company as much with their gut as their balance sheet.


The whole industry is being re-invented right now and it is anyone's guess how it is going to shake out.

But this much I know: There will always be an audience willing to pay for quality content. One way or another.
 
Jim Brennan said:
The whole industry is being re-invented right now and it is anyone's guess how it is going to shake out.
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The next gen distributor will be run by internet nerds who'll have a room with 50+ teenagers at computers driving facebook and twitter marketing campaigns after school, during school they will continue their work on blackberry's during classes.
 
Zak Forsman said:
define "quality content". :)
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Something someone is willing to pay for. Probably something they can't create themselves.

The way i see it is that we (meaning the average joe) has always been able to create things that can entertain. We can play our own music, we can tell our own stories, put on plays, draw our own pictures. And some of us do. But there seems to be something inherent in the human psyche that understands that there is a difference between what we as individuals can create, and something that somehow seems...better.

With films you have the added complication of the spectacle of the storytelling, but in the end it is still storytelling. I personally think that no matter what else happens and how advanced home theaters get, there will always be a market for theaters. For some of us, films are more enjoyable (or perhaps just a different experience) with a group.

I don't have any answers, I just believe that what we do (or aspire to do) can find or create a market. Not just because it meets some objective standard of good, but because just as there will always be people who want to create content, there will always those that are willing to try and sell it.
 
This is the future of major label deals and Hollywood shennanigans....

I just got three words for ya....

PARANORMAL ACTIVITY !

15K budget = raking in millions at the box office

It's about coming up with an idea that will fool teenagers and average joe six packers and then getting a major label to market said idea to them in a slick package, doing all sorts of "new" and "radical" sh*t like..... doing college town pre-releases and doing aggressive online campaigns....

talk about a ROI yall!
 
also...

if anything...

I think this might open the doors for major labels to start combing thru the indie sh*tpile a lil more aggressively, looking for that next Paranormal Activity....

so.... all yall dudes and babes need to get cracking.... Hollywood gonna come looking and knocking soon.... if you got the goods...
 
actually... yes.... you are right. I was trying to be funny and I failed.

:Drogar-BigGrin(DBG):nads::lipsrseal:banned:
 
Took me a moment to realize that PA meant Paranormal Activity and not Production Assistant.

Huh? we've suddenly run short of production assistants...?
 
PAs working on some stupid romantic comedy involving zak efron and j ho.... with a budget of 30-50 million

SCREW THAT !

quit and go make yer own lil PA (para act) and get a major label deal and GET PAID son!
 
ChipG said:
The next gen distributor will be run by internet nerds who'll have a room with 50+ teenagers at computers driving facebook and twitter marketing campaigns after school, during school they will continue their work on blackberry's during classes.
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Damn dude, I like this idea. I think you're on to something.

Throw in an ARG, some other viral/guerilla marketing on the streets, and this could have some major potential.

I wonder if this could work with less than 50 people. What if I made a kick arse feature, and then took a year off and just blogged, twittered, and marketed my flick every day like it was my full time job?

Of course, you can always start the online marketing during pre production too. These days, it's never too early to start getting the word out there.
 
Nektonic said:
Damn dude, I like this idea. I think you're on to something.

Throw in an ARG, some other viral/guerilla marketing on the streets, and this could have some major potential.

I wonder if this could work with less than 50 people. What if I made a kick arse feature, and then took a year off and just blogged, twittered, and marketed my flick every day like it was my full time job?

Of course, you can always start the online marketing during pre production too. These days, it's never too early to start getting the word out there.
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My business partner owns a bunch of night clubs around the country as his side business, he has been marketing them with the most advanced Facebook data mining software, he paid $3500 for it. I was playng around with it and had 2,700 people accept me for a fake movie page I made to test it in the matter of 6 hours. You can data mine extensively with this high end software, select age range, get info about them from 3rd party apps, target them through other movies they like, get thier phone numbers (if they list them and all thier friends phone numbers from their phone book) and the software even sends out text messages automated to their cell phones if you want, so yea you could knock down 50 people to 5 with this software (they also have it for Twitter, Myspace and a few other sites) and have a decent full force nationwide Facebook marketing campaing. Don't waste your money on the $59 software for Facebook, it sucks...

For someone 4 walling a small indie movie in a college town it would be perfect and could be done by 1 person in an afternoon.

Snowball effect will take over if the move or product is good, if not word of mouth will kill it faster than you could plant the seed.

You know who would benefit the most from it here is Faith, Deuce of Spades 50's movie, it would be soooo easy to build a list of 100,000+ hot rod enthusiast in a day or two, have it narrow it down to a city or state. She was talking about 4 walling to drive ins... The more niche your movie is the better the results for marketing this way.
 
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When the singularity happens, robots will be the only directors anyway.

So think of Michael Bay films as practice for the singularity.
 
I missed Coppola in Beirut. Fun seeing something that happened here (albeit just a visit) be talked about on DVX :)

I missed Coppola in Beirut for some really messed up reasons, reasons that finally went away this week, to my happiness. I don't think beirut is regenerative, or a good place to work in cinema, if you are lebanese, or middle eastern.

But that's another story...

Have a good morning everyone.
 
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