Box Office Blitz - 2012

Box Office Blitz - 2012

  • John Carter - March 9

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • The Hunger Games - March 23

    Votes: 1 3.7%

  • The Avengers - May 4

    Votes: 3 11.1%

  • Men in Black III - May 25

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Snow White & the Huntsman - June 1

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Prometheus - June 8

    Votes: 3 11.1%

  • The Amazing Spider-Man - July 3

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • The Dark Knight Rises - July 20

    Votes: 12 44.4%

  • Twilight: Part Who Gives a S..t - November 16

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - December 14

    Votes: 8 29.6%
  • Total voters
    27
Eric Boellner

Eric Boellner

Well-known member
So which film will dominate the domestic box office in 2012? Votes are public. It's not really a competition, but maybe just a lil' bit. ;)

EDIT: Okay, well, it's supposed to be public...
 
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The Hobbit will OWN. But it will make half of its money in 2013...Of course if the Mayans are right, we will not see 2013 or the 2nd part of the saga. Dark Knight and Twilight will vie for 2nd.
 
I am more excited for The Hobbit, but I think The Dark Knight Rises will be the biggest film of 2012.

I think The Hobbit could take it, but will most likely come in second.
 
The Hobbit. It has the right mix of heritage, director credentials, cast and badassness to take the throne. Probably a tie with Dark Knight Rises though.

Twilight will (of course) earn a lot on the box office, even if people like me will be rooting for it to eat **** and dive horribly. :-)
 
Batutta said:
The Hobbit will OWN. But it will make half of its money in 2013...Of course if the Mayans are right, we will not see 2013 or the 2nd part of the saga. Dark Knight and Twilight will vie for 2nd.
Click to expand...

I think The Hobbit's going to do big numbers, but I don't think it's going to take the year's crown. It's got a more narrow appeal than TDKR, and a lot of people don't like fantasy. TDKR, on the other hand, appeals to not only a comic geek fanbase, but is intelligent enough for an adult audience, while still strongly appealing to the target 18-25 market.

Darky Mikado said:
The Hobbit. It has the right mix of heritage, director credentials, cast and badassness to take the throne. Probably a tie with Dark Knight Rises though.
Click to expand...

Outside of LOTR fans, Peter Jackson doesn't have anywhere near as much credibility as Nolan with a wide audience. The cast is composed of almost entirely unknowns in the American market, and well... badassness is kind of Batman territory. ;)
 
I think domestically, The Avengers has a solid chance of beating Twilight, though internationally, Twilight will probably fend it off. I think The Avengers' biggest problem will be that only Iron Man has seriously performed either domestically OR internationally -- and internationally, it really didn't do as well as other major franchises like Spider-man, Batman, Harry Potter, Transformers or Twilight. Thor and Captain America are unproven franchises, so the entire success of TA depends on either the existing fanbase for Iron Man or the same kind of mashup hype that LGF tried to sell for The Expendables.

It's obviously going to be a big movie, but I think it's definitely going to fall shy of the billion-dollar mark, and could potentially be as low as $700mil internationally.

-JMT
 
I'm not so sure about your analysis of The Hobbit Michael. I think it has a wider appeal than Batman and potentially even Lotr. It's a more lighthearted adventure. The Dark Knight Rises also lacks the Joker factor. People love that character and Heath's portrayal was lightning in a bottle. That was a gotta see x factor that I don't see happening this time. It will make a ton of money no doubt but I don't see it equalling The Dark Knight's gross...If John Carter really delivers and word if mouth spreads it could do great. I think it's guaranteed a solid worldwide gross. These fx pictures tend to do well internationally, often better than domestic. Even Prince of Persia did well overseas. Disney has a great marketing apparatus so I doubt it will be another Conan debacle.
 
I definitely don't think TDKR will do TDK numbers, but I'm figuring high $300's against low $400's. ROTK made $377mil domestic, but I have trouble believing that The Hobbit, which is something of an off-shoot, and is also of a different tone (as you said, more lighthearted) will be taken as seriously. I think it has a chance at middle to high $300's, though if the 3D doesn't reduce the crowd significantly over ROTK, it could add 30% and boost the film to the top for the year. I'm really not sure. It all depends on whether TDKR performs or not. But honestly, when I talk to 18-25y.o. guy friends outside of the business, most of them are already pumped about TDKR, whereas I don't know many people outside of the business who even knows that they're making a Hobbit movie. I imagine this landscape will change over the next year, and I guess we'll have to wait and see. I've been horribly wrong before, and in fact usually am, but I still get a kick out of guessing.

-JMT
 
Michael Traven said:
I definitely don't think TDKR will do TDK numbers, but I'm figuring high $300's against low $400's. ROTK made $377mil domestic, but I have trouble believing that The Hobbit, which is something of an off-shoot, and is also of a different tone (as you said, more lighthearted) will be taken as seriously. I think it has a chance at middle to high $300's, though if the 3D doesn't reduce the crowd significantly over ROTK, it could add 30% and boost the film to the top for the year. I'm really not sure. It all depends on whether TDKR performs or not. But honestly, when I talk to 18-25y.o. guy friends outside of the business, most of them are already pumped about TDKR, whereas I don't know many people outside of the business who even knows that they're making a Hobbit movie. I imagine this landscape will change over the next year, and I guess we'll have to wait and see. I've been horribly wrong before, and in fact usually am, but I still get a kick out of guessing.

-JMT
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The 18-25 year old boys don't really dictate grosses anymore. There have actually been many articles asking where the hell they went. I say they are either watching porn or playing video games, playing with their joysticks as it were. That's why films like Twilight rake in massive grosses, leaving young men scratching their heads in befuddlement. The Hobbit has more potential appeal across the board, that 4 quadrant, 8-80 year old demo. I think you're underestimating the general level of affection a large segment of the moviegoing public has for the Lord of the Rings films. They are considered modern day classics by many, and not just the Tolkein die hards. The audience will be there for it. And if the movie is at least as good as the first three, blockbuster success is guaranteed. If the movie is terrible, well then, all bets are off. Lack of stars doesn't matter either. Nobody went to see the first three because Elijah Wood and the kid from Rudy were in it.
 
You make good points. I'm sure piracy also factors in, as 18-25 is probably the most affected market. It's close, but I'll stick by my prediction of TDKR for the win.

BTW, I agree that John Carter won't be 2012's CTB. I think it took some balls on Disney's part to wager that much on a risky film like JC, but as Ciaran Hinds said on Rome, "It's only hubris if I fail."

-JMT
 
Yeah, Avengers is looking pretty big. It's got good word of mouth, and I think it packs a lot of value for your dollar in moviegoers eyes. 6 superheroes for the price of one ticket! Although I'm not sure ScarJo's Black Widow is very super, other than in the looks department. Looking back in the thread, John Carter did a little worse than I expected domestically, although it escaped shame in the international department. But it was so expensive it's a write off.
 
I think Dark Knight Rises could set an all-time opening weekend record.

Which I posted without seeing the above post. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if it does.
 
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