Trying to figure out how to work Cimino “Heaven’s Gate” into the discussion . It killed United artists , don’t see a real comparison but I do find fascinating some of the excesses that happened. One was keeping an actor with a one or two day gig left in hotel for many many months before he worked ( getting paid the whole time). Maybe in five years we’ll read a book on how another studio bit the dust.
AMC Says ‘Almost All’ U.S. Theaters Will Reopen in July
- Thread starter groveChuck
- Start date
If you do wait a year to release your film, you'll also be competing with all those who also waited *and* all the other films being produced since then which are also being released then too. Some may think it is better to release now, when there is less competition
Run&Gun
Veteran
I get the ego of wanting their movies to be big theatrical releases, but don't be stupid. Make it convenient and available to the widest possible audience(streaming). And more and more states are going back under lock-down. My state is going to a sort-of curfew beginning Friday evening. Businesses must close by 10pm(curbside food service can remain open longer), no alcohol sales after 9pm and they are asking people to remain at home from 10p to 5am.
groveChuck
U-matic Member
Relieved to hear it, Batutta!
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Wow, ****'s going down. first California and now NC. Only a matter of time before NY puts a hold on things. I'm glad I worked like a dog in November. My wife's got a big I-told-you-so coming her way re:not turning down overlapping edit days etc
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Soderbergh has some (uplifting?) thoughts about the HBO max affair: https://www.thedailybeast.com/filmm...-death-of-cinema-and-vibing-with-meryl-streep
JAMedia
Well-known member
I think you will find there will be a lockdown in the US Jan-March. We are certainly heading for one in the UK and we have already started mass vaccination. The problem is those vaccinated this week won't have full protection until early January. So the Christmas spike will overlap with the start of the Vaccination starting to bite. In the UK it won't be over untill April-May.
However cinema's and theatre's survived radio, TV, Video cassettes, CD, DVD, Blue Ray, large Screen tv's, 3d TV's, streaming services and in deed Theatres survived cinema's.
People like to go out for a social event and more so after a year of lockdowns.
With most people having a large flat screen TV at home as suggested above streaming can be more profitable than a cinema release. You can certainly reach a far larger market.
Directors bemoaning streaming services over cinema releases sound like the directors who said they would never shoot digital and would use film to their dying day.... The paradime has shifted and it won't be going back so they will need to get used to it. In the UK it is effectively ALL streaming services. It is just that some are streamed to the server at the Cinema. IT means the Cinema can be anywhere and updated at any time.
In 2020 people have been breaking lockdown rules to socialise when the breaks finally come off the cinema's (and theatres) will have a huge surge in attendance.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Netflix only made $1.9 billion profit in 2019 and the real number is likely far lower due to how they account for debt and production expenses. They spend an unsustainable amount on content. I think their long-term outlook is less rosy than some. They were the first streamer but that advantage was temporary. I had a Netflix account for 10 years, but now I'm churning. I haven't had a Netflix account in 13 months even though I want to see the 2nd season of altered carbon
In the mid 90s I had a roommate that used to get crazy checks from long distance companies to switch, he switched many times sometimes for hundreds of dollars. Every few months he would switch when someone new offered. Wonder if streaming companies may go that direction. Also I would never buy a used Christie or other major used cinema projector but a considerable population in the u.s. could install a large screen in their backyard. If it became easier to see first runs I could see many people I know doing this. For decades you’ve had first run prints going out to Hollywood elite home and private screening rooms.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Disney alone had $3.4 billion in profit from its film unit in 2019
Netflix is likely to ride the down and up wave in the long term - down when competitors will spend huge bucks on product and promotion to chip away at the Netflix domination and up, when the competitors will determine that their outlays are unsustainable. Sort of like Quibi.
As to the revenues, in 2014 Netflix generated $5.5B for the full year, which is less than it had for the 3rd quarter in 2020 (~ $6.5B). So, in 2021, it should hit ~ $28B. Meanwhile, Disney's, as all film divisions, is up and down. In 2019, it had a third of the North American BO; in 2014, 15%. 'Tis the nature of the beast.
And, of course, while Disney is far more diversified, 2020 was a bad year to be in a theme park and cruise line businesses. Those will, obviously, rebound but are unlikely to serve as a counterweight to Disney's own debt of $64B. Bob Iger picked a perfect time to get the hell out of Dodge.
As to the revenues, in 2014 Netflix generated $5.5B for the full year, which is less than it had for the 3rd quarter in 2020 (~ $6.5B). So, in 2021, it should hit ~ $28B. Meanwhile, Disney's, as all film divisions, is up and down. In 2019, it had a third of the North American BO; in 2014, 15%. 'Tis the nature of the beast.
And, of course, while Disney is far more diversified, 2020 was a bad year to be in a theme park and cruise line businesses. Those will, obviously, rebound but are unlikely to serve as a counterweight to Disney's own debt of $64B. Bob Iger picked a perfect time to get the hell out of Dodge.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Nolan claps back at Warners:
And in return, they blame it on Tenet:
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/n...ros-plan?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
https://www.etonline.com/christophe...s-to-warner-broshbo-max-deal-exclusive-157414
And in return, they blame it on Tenet:
https://screenrant.com/tenet-box-office-failure-warner-bros-2021-movies-impact/amp/
Streaming is a return to the studio system of the pre-antitrust era, when the studio management played a bigger role than the talent and the agencies. An enormous difference with the modern technology is the unlimited streaming hours vs. the finite number of movie theaters of the yesteryear. Nowadays, it might make more sense to make three $30M flicks/series than one $100M, which aids to the studios ability to walk away from the big name stars and the big name projects with big budgets. At some point, this will look a lot more like TV, where each network had its own groups of talent, with the total free agency becoming a thing of the past. And that really irks the likes of Spielberg and Nolan.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
That irks the likes of ME, too. Because cinema is different from TV. It hews away from grandeur because it knows people will first and foremost be watching it small. And even GOT had only a $15 million/episode budget for its final season. Netflix has made some big-budget films, although I think most of the budgets went to overpaid name brand talent.
Studios/streamers wont be the same as studios/theaters because streamers aren't theaters. The "content" will never be the same, it wont even aim to be the same.
But in terms of the economic dynamics, I think you're totally right. But therein lies the rub - 3 $30 million movies instead of 1 $100 million one.
Spielberg and Nolan are, like, the reason we watch movies. Even when we measure up the successes of the golden age of TV (which seems to roll on and on), we measure them against the yardstick of proper cinema.
There are certain things TV can do better - endless plotlines and character development, unlimited subplots. But made-for-streamer movies are not functionally different from made-for-TV movies. and I'm not trying to knock those, there have been a ton of great ones made. It's just not the same as theatrical cinema and i dont want to lose that going forward.
Studios/streamers wont be the same as studios/theaters because streamers aren't theaters. The "content" will never be the same, it wont even aim to be the same.
But in terms of the economic dynamics, I think you're totally right. But therein lies the rub - 3 $30 million movies instead of 1 $100 million one.
Spielberg and Nolan are, like, the reason we watch movies. Even when we measure up the successes of the golden age of TV (which seems to roll on and on), we measure them against the yardstick of proper cinema.
There are certain things TV can do better - endless plotlines and character development, unlimited subplots. But made-for-streamer movies are not functionally different from made-for-TV movies. and I'm not trying to knock those, there have been a ton of great ones made. It's just not the same as theatrical cinema and i dont want to lose that going forward.
Run&Gun
Veteran
There is nothing that automatically makes the production and scope(grandeur) of a movie lesser JUST because it’s going to be on a streaming service instead of in a theater for initial release. We’ve discussed numerous times on here how streaming and even OTA network shows are trouncing a lot of theatrical released movies in both production value and stories.
And again, I’m not pulling for the demise of theaters. I’m pulling for Hollywood to make better movies.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
On HBO Max? Really?
I mean, theoretically you're right. Except that a theatrical release will eventually be streaming anyway.
But I think the reality of the balkanized streaming landscape is that no consumer subscribes to every service, so unless you churn like me and rotate through the available offerings, you won't get to see it anyway.
Of course, that's the whole point of the new hbo max strategy - to pry you away from the competition.