Theaters will still exist but may take on a frequency of visits akin to the local museum, zoo and symphony. My home town is around 300k population and has all three ( very high quality) but unfortunately I rarely patronize these resources. Cinema could move into the same category. One that gets used more frequently when kids and grandchildren are small but takes on less importance as kids become teenagers.
AMC Says ‘Almost All’ U.S. Theaters Will Reopen in July
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JAMedia
Well-known member
NOTE in the UK a "theatre" is live actors on a stage. A place where films are projected is a cinema.
This discussion re the death of cinema comes up every now and again, Edit.... When Radio arrived, when TV arrived, when video cassettes arrived, when CD's arrived, When BIG flat screen TV's arrived. Yet our small town UK Single Screen cinema became a 10 screen complex that always has (pre COVID) a lot of people in it.
Almost all Cinemas in the UK (bar the specialist art houses) are digital and multi screen. Delivery of films to the cinema's server is via broadband. Most of the system is fully automated so you only need one projectionist in a central control room for 10 screens. For the front of house staff it is much the same economies of scale. So in the UK cinema's are very much more cost effective to run than they were and the multi screens attract more customers than the single screen used to.
Also going to the cinema is a social "going out" event. People like to do that. However how the young teens and 20's see it I am not sure. For them a "big screen" is anything larger than an iPad
So cinema's might die out but not this decade and probably not the next decade. However as I am married I know I can be wrong about things......
This discussion re the death of cinema comes up every now and again, Edit.... When Radio arrived, when TV arrived, when video cassettes arrived, when CD's arrived, When BIG flat screen TV's arrived. Yet our small town UK Single Screen cinema became a 10 screen complex that always has (pre COVID) a lot of people in it.
Almost all Cinemas in the UK (bar the specialist art houses) are digital and multi screen. Delivery of films to the cinema's server is via broadband. Most of the system is fully automated so you only need one projectionist in a central control room for 10 screens. For the front of house staff it is much the same economies of scale. So in the UK cinema's are very much more cost effective to run than they were and the multi screens attract more customers than the single screen used to.
Also going to the cinema is a social "going out" event. People like to do that. However how the young teens and 20's see it I am not sure. For them a "big screen" is anything larger than an iPad
So cinema's might die out but not this decade and probably not the next decade. However as I am married I know I can be wrong about things......
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ahalpert
Major Contributor
I actually disagree strongly and I'm pretty optimistic that there won't be lasting psychological damage, at least not for most people. I see it differently from the great depression because:
1. The depression lasted like 10 years, this crisis will largely conclude within 15 months
2. Half the US population thinks it's overblown to begin with
3. The precautions we take are largely voluntary and rooted in reason. During the depression, privation was not a choice.
4. Even people who take it seriously are having difficulty depriving themselves of socialization and entertainment and tend to make exceptions
5. A large swath of the population has a temporarily inflated savings rate. I'm guessing they will go out shopping and travelling and seeking entertainment with their extra cash once permitted, and maybe even form new habits of consumption.
6. Rationally, no one will fear contracting an unknown virus out in public. The rational fear is that another pandemic may emerge somewhere and freeze our society and economy. that's the likeliest outcome in my view - that people fear another unforeseen cataclysmic economic event and shore up their financial position so they can withstand it. That's what happened to me after the great recession. I graduated college in 2009 into one of the worst job markets since the great depression. The lesson that I learned was not so much that the housing market could crash again but that the economy might suddenly implode for reasons no one predicted. That fear led me to diversify my income, save up a rainy day fund, and maintain low debt - all of which helped me withstand the covid shock. But it didn't stop me from going to the movies in the meantime
JAMedia
Well-known member
No... the COVID part will be over in 15 months with the Vaccine however the economic effect will have an effect for many more years. eg Boeing at risk.
But many/most of them won't be here in 15 months.... Many of those who think COVID is fake/just a flu are not likely to take the Vaccine either.
True but most are using virtual meetings except those mentioned in points 2 and 3 (see my answer to that )
Many more have lost jobs or will loose them and have no money. So swings and roundabouts.
Not true. The Majority of Americans (ie the majority who voted Biden by mail and NOT attending rally's) don't seem to agree. Also you can see vast numbers who work masks out in public. Rationally and factually the COVID, SARS and other viruses do spread in public gatherings and airports in particular.
That makes sense. Never put all your eggs in on basket. Financial or business.
Going to the movies is orthogonal to all that. Going to the movies could die out completely next year you have no idea. However in the same way (live stage) Theatres were going to die our the year after Cinema's took off......
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Sure, but there again we're talking economics and not agoraphobia or other neuroses. Plus, the economists I read predict a V-shaped recovery following the resolution of the pandemic - more like the recoveries to most previous recessions and not like the slow, grinding recovery to the great recession.
What do you mean - most covid denialists are going to die? No way - the fatality rate is way, way too low to make an impact like that. and actually a lot of covid denialists seem keen on the vaccine. That's just how the politics is playing out. But whether or not they get it may be immaterial. The people who get it may feel comfortable socializing because they've gotten it. The people who dont get it may feel comfortable socializing even without it. All that's left is for the public health crisis to be manageable enough such that all business restrictions are lifted. And those politics mirror the first set.
Sure, but I shoot weddings and people are hugging and kissing and drinking together. The same people who take precautions at other times. Or look at gov Newsom and the French Laundry scandal. Nobody actually wants to be cooped up.
yes but there is like $2 trillion of extra savings accumulated by office workers and the overwhelming majority of the workforce who did not lose their jobs. Will that money stay saved or will it get spent?
I said they wouldn't fear contracting an unknown virus, like something that hasn't been discovered yet. I don't think people have become paranoid about undiscovered bugs lurking in every sneeze. The problem is the known viruses.
That makes sense. Never put all your eggs in on basket. Financial or business.
Going to the movies is orthogonal to all that. Going to the movies could die out completely next year you have no idea. However in the same way (live stage) Theatres were going to die our the year after Cinema's took off......
Agreed - but the only point I was trying to make was if there would be widespread neuroses following our covid precautions that would fundamentally change consumer behavior on a broad scale. It's easy to imagine people watching new WB releases at home for convenience/cost/privacy/food options. I'm not sure how many people will do it just because it still feels safer after the pandemic is over.
The only way for some movie theaters to survive is to partner up with studios. Any studios. Including the major streamers.
AMC might partner up with Quibi. Here's a potential scenario. You're walking outside and, all of a sudden, it starts to rain. So, you duck inside inside a Quibi Cinema, stay for 8-10minutes rain delay, consume a large cup of Diet Coke with a bag of Raisinetes, and then resume your walk nourished physically and emotionally.
JAMedia
Well-known member
There won't be a V shaped recovery. For example it is very likely Boeing will go putting ripples through the entire supply chain.
I agree on that point. When it has died down people will congregate again and most not worry about viruses.
The problem is that in the US it has not started to die down. In fact in the USA the number of deaths is rising in a linear fashion
https://www.us-covid-tracker.com/?field=deaths&per100k=0&time=all&consistentY=0
The US will have lost more people to COVID in 9 months in 2020 than to WW2.
Unlike the USA most countries had a dip to near zero between the two spring and fall waves. The US (also Brazil and a few 3rd world countries) had a spike or no near zero dip in the summer.
https://www.us-covid-tracker.com/?field=newDeaths&per100k=0&time=all&consistentY=0
(you can't blame all of it on Trump rally's in the summer)
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Are you sure about that?
"Ryanair is buying 75 more 737 Max jets, Boeing's biggest order since the grounding"
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...iness/ryanair-boeing-737-max-order/index.html
At any rate, I didnt say that every business would survive, just that there will be lots of economic activity for whoever survives and for new businesses.
Sure but WW2 didnt hit us as bad as most. Theres no denying that it's a massive death total. But it's still under .1% of the population and probably won't exceed .15%. That's a ton of people, but not enough to alter our demographics.
I dont expect the pandemic to abate in the US before we have mass vaccinations. But we're looking at something like 20 million doses available by year's end and perhaps 35 million each month after that. Vaccines will go to the most vulnerable populations first, and I'm guessing that 1/3 or less of the population is vulnerable.
So, even before we achieve herd immunity, if everyone vulnerable to severe covid is vaccinated, then hospitalizations and deaths are absolutely going to plummet. That could happen within 3 months of a vaccine rollout and the limiting factor would be willingness to receive the vaccine. (And I'm guessing that vulnerable individuals will be more likely to take it.) Even if the virus is still spreading like wildfire, so long as the vulnerable are protected then the dying will largely cease.
And our scientific achievements may spare us the worst consequences of failing to contain the spread.
The US lost about 400,000 in WWII in military related casualties, ~ 300,000 in actual combat.
Covid related deaths skew much older than the military and those that succumb to the disease generally suffer from other maladies. In WWII, if someone got blown up by a Nebelwerfer shell, it was the sole cause.
Covid related deaths skew much older than the military and those that succumb to the disease generally suffer from other maladies. In WWII, if someone got blown up by a Nebelwerfer shell, it was the sole cause.
Batutta
Major Contributor
Cinemas will survive. Some of the large cinema chains might go under, but they'll come back in some other form. There will probably be less screens and less major releases for a while, but four to five years out from now I think things will be back to normal. The great depression left lasting scars on the psyche of people, but this pandemic will be nowhere near as prolonged or traumatic. A better analogy is the 1918 pandemic, which quickly became a dim memory only a decade or so after the event. The 20's were called the roaring 20's and some of that was a post flu pandemic reaction. I won't be surprised if we see a repeat of that kind of ebullient activity in these 20's after Covid fades.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
I agree with Batutta about the psychological effects.
And thinking about what JAMedia said about cinemas in the UK - even if cinemas in the US went under, it wouldn't necessarily mean that they'll go under everywhere. I'm 100% positive that the French will continue to go to the cinema in droves, for example.
And thinking about what JAMedia said about cinemas in the UK - even if cinemas in the US went under, it wouldn't necessarily mean that they'll go under everywhere. I'm 100% positive that the French will continue to go to the cinema in droves, for example.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
I'm not sure if it matters if the person had pre-existing conditions when covid killed them. They could have lived for another 50 years (or 10-20 if they were elderly).
But I agree that it's marginally less tragic when an 80-year old dies instead of an 18-year old.
But nobody should have to die alone in a hospital room. They can't even have a proper funeral right now. I know I'm spoiled as an American, but I never thought I'd see these conditions of life and death. Covid has transported us backwards 100 years.
Ya, like tube amps.
Last night, a friend sent me an official Covid report from Ventura County, CA. Two people died from Covid the day earlier. One was 98, the other 85.
naturally, the 98 year old one had 15-20 solid years in front of him.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
No but an 85 year old man has 6 years of life expectancy left, a woman has 7. (If you reach old age, your life expectancy is higher). The 85 year old had 13 years left just to reach the age of the 98 year old.
But I'll keep your fatalistic attitude in mind if you ever ask me for a kidney in a few years jk
But I'll keep your fatalistic attitude in mind if you ever ask me for a kidney in a few years
jk
Batutta
Major Contributor
I don't see the comparison. At all. And I'm not saying they will thrive. But they will survive. Cinemas didn't kill the theater. TV didn't kill cinema. Vinyl didn't kill radio. Streaming won't kill cinema. Seeing a movie at home and seeing one in a theater are different experiences. One people will still want. And by the way, tube amps are making a small comeback because of vinyl enthusiasts wanting the purest analog experience.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
I dont think it's a foregone conclusion either way. But just because cinema offers something different doesn't mean it will survive. It comes down to statistics of how many consumers are willing to spend how much.
Daguerrotype and tintype offer a different experience than film and digital. and they still exist...as novelty items at an old tyme theme park or hipster experiments. I dont think those media survive at scale and there are probably extinct modes of entertainment you didnt think to put on your list because they're extinct
Daguerrotype and tintype offer a different experience than film and digital. and they still exist...as novelty items at an old tyme theme park or hipster experiments. I dont think those media survive at scale and there are probably extinct modes of entertainment you didnt think to put on your list because they're extinct
Batutta
Major Contributor
There's enough flexibility though in how a cinema operates that it can be made into a more affordable entertainment outing again. Digital projection has already lowered costs a lot. The giant cineplexes as we know them are probably going to be downsized, but I grew up in a time when there were way fewer screens per city, with my hometown having only one theater with one screen, and rolling things back to that would still be a viable industry. There's just going to have to be a lot of belt tightening from the industry and lowered expectations.
Batutta
Major Contributor
I have one. The field of view and resolution isn't quite there to rival even a low quality flat screen tv. Resolution looks somewhere around 720p. And no surround sound. You can replicate the scale of like an IMAX sized screen though which is cool. But I wouldn't watch a whole movie on it. The technology will get there eventually, probably in about five years time we'll have full human vision field of view, retinal resolution and convincing holographic sound.