AMC Says ‘Almost All’ U.S. Theaters Will Reopen in July

A $100M "hit" movie gross is paid by 8-10 million people out of a 350 million North American American market. A megahit is maybe seen by 30 million. That's 3%-10% market penetration. Top narrative TV shows get 10-15 mil eyeballs per episode (MNF gets 20 but that could dip too, if without live stadium attendance ... and other factors), which is the same. In other words, an individual program has stopped being mass entertainment long ago. None of it stopped Chuck Lorre from making a billion dollars from his jejune sitcoms. It's a huge economy where even small slices of the pie cam bring tremendous wealth.

As to the rest, Netflix has ~ 73 million US subscribers. Its top competitors will get there at some point too. And as long as their checks don't bounce ...
 
I can't help but feel that Wall Street has driven Hollywood to the brink of extinction by focusing on short-term profits at the expense of long-term growth.

If you're not minting new stars and providing a full range of excellent genre films, you are not growing the film buffs of tomorrow. And eventually Hollywood becomes synonymous with superhero movies.

That being said - I have no doubt that the basic format of scripted drama will persist, with all the conventions of lighting and editing that were developed in Hollywood. I dont know what studio will shoot it or where it will be shot, but even people who only watch on their phones want some traditional storytelling and not only vloggers and reality TV.

Ultimately, what's most important to me is the standalone movie and episodic TV storytelling format
 
Scripted and episodic are going the televovela way.

And every top Hollywood executive is on a short leash/deal. Get a megahit or two and ride into sunset with tens, if not hundreds, of millions. Release a few bombs and it's back into the mail room.
 
puredrifting said:
Perhaps DLD means that just like Anglo Soap Operas, Telenovelas are on their way out?
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No, they're actually on the way in. I was flipping through the Spanish channels while watching the UEFA Champions League and came upon a three year old "El vuelo de la victoria" - 89 episodes made in total, the shooting style is like the old US daytime soaps but with a lot more exterior footage and exterior sets. Then started reading up on it. This one was made by Televisa but lot of the streamers are picking up on the concept (which has been around for over 60 years), including a lot of the Asian and European production houses.

Side note, "Santa Barbara", an old NBC soap that ran in the US 1984-1991 and had a few names that went onto bigger and better things, was very popular in France and the former USSR. I was a big fan too and, when I lived in LA, somehow managed to run into over a dozen stars from the show.

843b2c6ff96593ecfe1e84e6106dfa20--robin-wright-santa-barbara.jpg

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/84/3b/2c/843b2c6ff96593ecfe1e84e6106dfa20--robin-wright-santa-barbara.jpg
 
DLD said:
No, they're actually on the way in. I was flipping through the Spanish channels while watching the UEFA Champions League and came upon a three year old "El vuelo de la victoria" - 89 episodes made in total, the shooting style is like the old US daytime soaps but with a lot more exterior footage and exterior sets. Then started reading up on it. This one was made by Televisa but lot of the streamers are picking up on the concept (which has been around for over 60 years), including a lot of the Asian and European production houses.

Side note, "Santa Barbara", an old NBC soap that ran in the US 1984-1991 and had a few names that went onto bigger and better things, was very popular in France and the former USSR. I was a big fan too and, when I lived in LA, somehow managed to run into over a dozen stars from the show.

View attachment 140154

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/84/3b/2c/843b2c6ff96593ecfe1e84e6106dfa20--robin-wright-santa-barbara.jpg
Click to expand...

So you're saying movies will die and telenovellas will be all that's left?

And you characterize telenovellas by their long plotlines, numerous characters and heavy dialogue? And generic high-key lighting?

BTW did anyone see Grand Hotel, the Spanish show? It was a superbly made telenovella that we really enjoyed
 
ahalpert said:
So you're saying movies will die and telenovellas will be all that's left?
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I was once a big daytime soap fan because the interplay and the story lines were new to me. (and there were several Kelly Capwells on top of that) The telenovela concept allows a beginning and an end that doesn't depend on actors' contracts. It's really not that different from "Dallas" and "Dynasty" but can be made faster and cheaper.

As to high key lighting, one can emulate all of lighting options in post these days. Rotoscoping is cheap in the digital age.
 
ahalpert said:
"AMC reopening most theaters by early September"

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/511797-amc-reopening-most-theaters-by-early-september
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They have to say that to keep their lenders happy. They were on the verge of bankruptcy and then received $500m by selling bonds. It amazes me that people actually buy bonds from a company with $5b in debt, on the verge of bankruptcy, with no idea if and when they will be back in business.

"Hello, Mrs. Old Person? I have this tremendous opportunity to invest in the movie business".
 
Probably high yield bonds at the time where everything is ground zero. So, slice it, tranch it, package it and send it out.
 
Yep, if I recall correctly, they yield 10.3%. They were characterized as junk bonds by one of the articles. 10.3% of bankruptcy is ground zero also.
 
Two of the big three could last a while without income according to a Barron's article. AMC, not so good:

"Cinemark’s balance sheet is also well-stocked, with nearly $490 million in cash at December’s end, and another $100 million in credit lines. Estimating its cash burn rate at $95 million, Handler figures Cinemark could go more than half a year without revenue “without having to go through any dramatic efforts to dig for additional capital.”

National CineMedia has a more leveraged balance sheet, but relatively low overhead. The MKM analyst estimates its monthly burn rate at $15 million without revenue. That could be sustained for more than a year, given the company’s $200 million in cash and credit lines.

AMC has the most-leveraged balance sheet and the least financial flexibility, in Handler’s view. He figures that the large chain has annual rental expenses of nearly $1 billion, $295 million in interest expense, and then $700 million in operating expenses even with its theaters closed. That indicates the $600 million in cash and credit shown on its latest balance sheet may only tide the chain through four months without revenue."
 
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