David W. Jones
Veteran
So a Priest, Rabbi, and Imam walk into a Best Buy store to look at 4K TVs, and….
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Remember what I said before, when it reaches a certain threshold. The CD was much better sound quality than tape and much more convenient too(No need to rewind forward change side etc.) But consumer chose a format with a little less quality but much better convenience. If Mp3 sounded like some old cassette, I don't think they would have adhered except for some pirate. So it depends at which level of quality your are and reaching a threshold it will only be incremental. That is why the TV channel in general will take a very very long time because 1080p will be good enough to 90% of viewers and even if it is up-scale 4k.
Adkimery, there are a lot of contradictions in your points. I am not convinced.
Since broadcasters will be the last to change, and we are talking about TVs here, how does this make a revolution? The install base of internet TVs is growing but small. So the people who can actually watch 4k are limited to the folks who purchased 4k TVs and have them connected to the internet with a very fast internet speed, people who have 4k capable computer displays with the same fast internet speed or people with retina I-pads with the fast connection speed.
The Priest says he definitely needs UHD for his church, and it is going to be money well spent. The Bestbuy geek says, "you are right". After the priest leaves happy, the Rabbi says, you know, there really is no discernible difference from HD, that was a terrible waste of tithe money. The Bestbuy geek says, "you are right." The Rabbi turns and walks out, leaving just the Imam. The Imam looks at the Bestbuy geek and says, they cannot both be right, to which the Bestbuy geek says, "you are right."So a Priest, Rabbi, and Imam walk into a Best Buy store to look at 4K TVs, and….
You many not agree w/my POV but I don't think there are any contradictions in my post. 66 million Smart TVs were sold in 2012 and by 2015 the projection is that Smart TVs will be more available that 'dumb' TVs. Even if you don't have a smart TV there are a multitude of set top boxes (everything from Blu-ray players to video game consoles to Roku & AppleTV) that very easily and inexpensively allow people to stream content to their TVs. The majority of homes in the US are 'streaming ready' even if they aren't streaming currently.
Now, w/regards to 4k, yes few people today own 4k TVs or display devices and there is paltry little 4k content to watch currently, but that's par for the course when something new comes out. How many people had HD TVs in 2002? How much HD content was available to consumers in 2002? I remember HDnet looping the same footage (lots of nature stock broll) multiple times a day back then. Everything new starts out as a niche. With HD, how much changed between 2002 and 2009? I'll answer my own question, by 2009 about half of the homes in the US had at least one HDTV and about 2/3s of those homes subscribed to HD content from their cable/sat provider. Will 4k be in everyone's home tomorrow? Next year? The year after that? The year after that? No, but I think that sometime between 2018 and 2021 4k will hit the mainstream. DVD, the fastest adopted consumer tech ever, took about 4 years to become mainstream. People expecting new formats like this to be broadly adapted by the masses in 12-24 months have exceedingly unrealistic expectations.
4k will be a premium service first just like HD, DVD, etc.,. before it can become a mainstream service. Like I've mentioned before, streaming companies like Amazon, Netflix and YouTube (plus Sony w/it's already launched 4k streaming movie service) see 4k as a chance to really separate themselves from their traditional broadcasting competitors and with Comcast and Time Warner getting in on the act you have two very large content owners that wouldn't mind selling/renting 4k content at a premium price (while at the same time up-selling their internet plans so customers get 'the best 4k experience possible'). Also, the PS4 and Xbox One can both output 4k video signals so millions of people already have at least one 'piece' of the 4k puzzle sitting in their living rooms.
Even once 4k becomes mainstream HD and 4k will enjoy a long, happy co-existence kinda like DVD & Blu-ray or digital music downloads & CDs (fun fact: It wasn't until 2011 that legal music downloads outpaced CD sales (51% to 49%).
-Andrew
Ha ha...Nice.The Priest says he definitely needs UHD for his church, and it is going to be money well spent. The Bestbuy geek says, "you are right". After the priest leaves happy, the Rabbi says, you know, there really is no discernible difference from HD, that was a terrible waste of tithe money. The Bestbuy geek says, "you are right." The Rabbi turns and walks out, leaving just the Imam. The Imam looks at the Bestbuy geek and says, they cannot both be right, to which the Bestbuy geek says, "you are right."
...He then sells the Imam an outdated laptop, adding on $500 dollars in accessories and insurance costs. Two months later the laptop breaks, and the Imam gets a new updated version for free.
Moral of the story is: printer ink is an expensive and hidden small business cost.
I would have to say "no", or at least "lets wait and see". Just because TV and camera makers are pushing new products does not mean we are the marketplace will need or use them. A few posts recently have been with a tone of "like it or not, 4K is coming..." almost like you better get on the train because it is leaving the station and you do not want to be left behind.
Well, let recent history be an example that formats tend to linger and normal people do not trust new video technologies. When do you think DVD will ever go away? Answer - never... Terms like DVD and HD have turned into the "make me a Xerox" or "Photoshop this" terms of the media world. 4K does not have this on its side. It is a little bit 'pocket protector' from a marketing standpoint if you ask me.
Remember all of the people (camera makers) telling us to "future proof" our work by upgrading to HD? How effective was upselling HD on technical merits when we came out of the SD era for you? For me it has been a huge frustration because people just did not buy into Blu-ray. 4K does have any physical medium yet and the internet is well, the internet. Business' want something that just works (small windows and bitrates) and selling anything people have to go download is just not a good business model.
I sound like a Debbie Downer on 4k but from my point of view HD has not turned into the best business move (as so much is still delivered on DVD for me) and a 4k investment holds the same or greater risk at the moment. I still want to see how light sensitive the first round of 4k video cameras (not large sensor cameras) will be before I make a judgement though.
Well I think we basically agree. 2018-2021 is pretty far into the future with regards to the froth building up today. Nobody here is saying 4k is not coming or that it is unwarranted etc... It is this false hysteria that video people have a need to act today to stay in the game that is just over the top. Yes 4k is nice but I guess it comes down to making equipment purchases from a business point of view or hobby/personal enjoyment point of view.
In what world to clients request DVD deliverables!? Are you sure you didn't write this post in 2005? 100% of our work is ftp based uploads of 1080p and 2K ProRes. Sometimes alongside that we compress an H264 version really nicely, as a courtesy so they have something ready for web streaming right away. I haven't actually played a DVD is 2 years, blu-rays yes, but DVD?
What would a client DO with a DVD exactly!? You can't broadcast it, you can't upload it… Your post amazes me.
Miss seeing you on the boards, lost contact ever since I left panny. You doing much 4K?Ha ha...Nice.
In what world to clients request DVD deliverables!? Are you sure you didn't write this post in 2005? 100% of our work is ftp based uploads of 1080p and 2K ProRes. Sometimes alongside that we compress an H264 version really nicely, as a courtesy so they have something ready for web streaming right away. I haven't actually played a DVD is 2 years, blu-rays yes, but DVD?
What would a client DO with a DVD exactly!? You can't broadcast it, you can't upload it… Your post amazes me.
As for Sd to HD - you could easily see a big difference at normal viewing distances. 4K no. Not the same.
3D required glasses, 4K requires nothing - also not the same.
3D required glasses, 4K requires nothing - also not the same.
In what world to clients request DVD deliverables!? Are you sure you didn't write this post in 2005? 100% of our work is ftp based uploads of 1080p and 2K ProRes. Sometimes alongside that we compress an H264 version really nicely, as a courtesy so they have something ready for web streaming right away. I haven't actually played a DVD is 2 years, blu-rays yes, but DVD?
What would a client DO with a DVD exactly!? You can't broadcast it, you can't upload it… Your post amazes me.
Are you saying people in Illinois are not buying HD TVs ?I imagine Sony is trying to recapture the market prominence they once held in TV sales for so many decades, so they are pushing 4K Tv's more than anyone. And to push the TV's along, 4K cameras. People have a lot of other cool things to spend their money on than an upgrade to an HD TV (which is still showing predominately sub 1080P content). They may nibble, but they won't bite.
I imagine Sony is trying to recapture the market prominence they once held in TV sales for so many decades, so they are pushing 4K Tv's more than anyone. And to push the TV's along, 4K cameras. People have a lot of other cool things to spend their money on than an upgrade to an HD TV (which is still showing predominately sub 1080P content). They may nibble, but they won't bite.
Don't make the mistake of assuming that everywhere is like your corner of the world. There is a huge variety of video jobs out there and it just depends on your market.
4k rubbish? There's a lot more to 4k then resolution. And RED is doing just fine with dragon.As RED Digital painfully discovered. Hype does not translate into blockbuster flicks. 90% of the features are used to produce 10% of the usable content.
So the winners are....... the manufacturers and industry press.
Gimme a high class production, well shot content in grainy fuzzy 640X480 any day over 4K rubbish