Is January going to save us?

Arash Ayrom

Arash Ayrom

Cataclysmo
Howdy all,

First of all, I just want to say how happy I am that this forum is still alive. I appreciate the mods and everyone behind the scenes keeping it going!

And I'm really thrilled that so many of you are still around. I'm literally rewatching Key & Peele again and love that Charles Papert is on here (I think we have a real-life acquaintance in common). I've bought a course from Doug Jensen, and get so much from him. I used to read DV Magazine religiously and it's amazing Jim Feeley is on here. Norbro is my spirit brother with his endless fascination with tech. I'm always learning from Chris Young's endless experience. I dig Alex H's calm, illuminating explanations whenever he posts something about audio or his industry experience.

And of course, I love the rigorous mental exercise from SMM's cryptographic posts that I have to decipher as if my life depended on it... ;)

And many more of you!

I'm mainly an editor, and I've been a member of this forum since 2006 (I just changed my old user name, hoju, over to my real name). Crazy! Back when BMCuser was a thing too. I film / write for my own projects as well. I only have 200 post or so on here, and mainly a reader. Doubt any of you know my profile, but I feel like I know a bunch of y'all.

Like many in our industry, it's been a really rough time for me. Basically, I've been out of work for nearly 10 months now.

I've heard from many, for several months now, that things are going to turn around in January.

Okay, but why? Do any of you have an explanation for this? [Please keep politics out of it if you can.]

I'm at the point where I have to make some big decisions, none of which I want to deal with, frankly. But things are so different now. I suppose it's the classic dilemma of getting older and finding yourself in unfamiliar waters.

I'd love to hear from you, and what you're sensing. Get out now? Hold on a bit longer? Do a dance to appease the angry media gods?

For those that haven't been as affected, if you have any advice, I'm definitely all ears! Or eyes, I guess.

Lastly, if any of you want to connect, whether you find yourselves in the same boat or not, you can either dm me or reach out via my website. [Mods, I hope this is allowed.]

Best,

Arash
www.cataclysmoinc.com
 
I recognize 'hoju', but maybe more in those good ole BMCuser days, I think (thanks for the shout-out).

If you don't have a steady, full-time - "this is a great company" - job/career in any of this, I don't see how January or any other month will make it better.

You know?

If anything, I think it's only going to get harder.

On a freelance level, competition is at an all-time high, securing yesteryear rates with smart clients is like pulling teeth and sometimes getting an opportunity to even chat about something is tedious and tiring.

On a higher level, there might be more union productions in 2025, but then it's like why aren't you being hired now and what would change that?

The bright side in this business (and others) is that there could always be something around the corner, that big break for a big contract or more work.

I don't know what you should do, and it's always easier for someone doing well to advise sticking with it for a bit longer or someone not doing well recommending to get out ASAP, so maybe there's a middle ground for you?

Part-time this, full-time something else?
 
With all streaming companies, except Netflix, still losing money, budgets will likely get tighter.

Some examples:

Disney laid off 14% of the Pixar staff
Paramount+ reported that they will have more cuts in 2025.
Warner/Discovery announced a $10 billion dollar loss in October
Warner/Discovery will split into two companies next year. That will cause plenty of organizational chaos and slow things down.
The CW had layoffs in November
CAA started reducing staff in November. So even the agencies are feeling the hurt.
 
Hey, Arash! Thanks for the kind words, and it’s good to see you’re still hanging around!

The brutal truth here, I believe, is that nobody knows for sure what’s going to happen. There are two main areas to analyze - TV (and streaming), and film - and they are very different beasts.

TV/streaming tanked at the beginning of 2023, for various reasons but mostly that it turned out streaming wasn’t making money and the initial response was for everyone to hit the brakes on ordering shows. There were a few exceptions, but we went from well over 5000 shows in production in 2022 to a bit less than 2000 shows now. I can’t remember the exact numbers, but those are pretty close. Shows are starting to come back, but many of them with smaller episode orders and significant budget cuts. (One of my shows went from 33 episodes in 2022 to none in 2023 to 12 this year, and this year’s faced a lot of belt-tightening including losing crew positions.) I hear that 2025 will see even more budget cuts.

On a personal level, despite losing a lot of series work between 2022 and now, and 2023 being (comparatively) a rough year, I’ve seen work come back a little this year. Not nearly as much as I’d wanted, or hoped, but it’s been a pretty decent year despite it mostly being a little of this and a little of that instead of 2 or 3 big projects.

I’ve diversified as well, in an attempt to fill in the gaps between smaller shows. The biggest thing for me was getting back into sound post. I used to do a lot of that back in the 2000s, so it wasn’t a huge leap to start back up. I’m also considering dusting off the camera packages and starting to shoot and edit again, just to have another income stream.

I’m not entirely optimistic about the series work I used to do, coming back anywhere close to what it was… if at all. I think I’m going to be taking on anything I can, whenever I can. Hopefully, I can shift more toward commercials and documentaries if the cable network stuff all but dries up. The anomaly for me is that I’ve booked a few days in January, normally the dead season here, at a fantastic rate on a true crime docu-series. That starts my 2025 off on a good foot, but I have no idea which feet will follow. And then there’s film.

The movie industry is not just in a shifting tide: it’s in a whirlpool. Productions are playing musical chairs, both in the US and abroad. LA’s at a fraction of the productions levels it used to see. Atlanta has built up, but is starting to see attrition. Studios are being built outside the NY/LA/ATL hubs. But a lot of films are moving overseas. I have no idea what it’s going to look like when the music stops and everyone grabs a chair… or who will be left without a chair.

There are indie films galore, but if things in your neck of the woods are anything like they are here, most of them are incredibly low-budget operations with unsustainable (read: basically minimum wage) rates as far as full-time freelance. I have a couple of irons in those fires with some decent rates negotiated, but whether they end up bearing fruit remains to be seen.

None of this really answers your question, but that’s kind of the point. Can you diversify your income and keep doing what you’re doing? Or is it time for a full career shift?
 
My pessimistic answer is, what's going to happen is that from all the elite directors and actors who are prominent in this Hollywood system, there are going to be a select few given the technology they have, and given that select few fit selling the creative image the boardroom of producers want, are going to constantly be pumping out films nonstop to make movies like its candy with just that select few while 99% of the leftovers, which is us here, are going to just be stuck on either lucking out on freelancing, which you have to be extremely lucky on, or stuck with dead-end roles, behind the scenes in film or on the scenes. The very thing us low budget independent filmmakers are wanting, Hollywood is frighteningly maximizing on it to the point of it preventing ourselves from having a decent future.
 
@ NorBro - I had a contract with a nonprofit, and did great work for them for a couple of years. Then, suddenly, they just canceled it. Pretty sure it had to do with severe mismanagement from the board and highers-up, but it left me adrift, as I was doing the work for a fraction of my normal rate (40%), thinking I was working for a cause I believed in. Yeah... that didn't turn out so hot.

But most of my work is in commercials, and that's the thing: clients, agencies, prod companies I used to work with are all in the same boat. And they're the ones saying "JANUARY!!!" Wishful thinking? No idea.

For me, though, the shock came from the fact that I've never had to "apply" for a job. Ever. I've always gotten work from word of mouth, network, etc. But when all the prodcos and agencies are in dire straits, that doesn't work anymore.

Now, applying for gigs on LinkedIn... It's either a scam, or you literally get hundreds, if not thousands of people applying for the same thing. It's insane.

Staying optimistic for now...
 
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@ Paul - Thanks for those stats. I have a feeling that also has to do with a huge drop in quality. I genuinely haven't been excited or interested in a series or film since... Game of Thrones?
 
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Zachadoodle said:
My pessimistic answer is, what's going to happen is that from all the elite directors and actors who are prominent in this Hollywood system, there are going to be a select few given the technology they have, and given that select few fit selling the creative image the boardroom of producers want, are going to constantly be pumping out films nonstop to make movies like its candy with just that select few while 99% of the leftovers, which is us here, are going to just be stuck on either lucking out on freelancing, which you have to be extremely lucky on, or stuck with dead-end roles, behind the scenes in film or on the scenes. The very thing us low budget independent filmmakers are wanting, Hollywood is frighteningly maximizing on it to the point of it preventing ourselves from having a decent future.
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You don’t have to be lucky with freelancing. You have to be good, and you have to be good at networking and marketing yourself.

Nothing that Hollywood does, is doing, or has done, inhibits low-budget, independent filmmaking. On the contrary, indie film is the only way to get many stories told that are too unique and too meaningful for the Hollywood factory. While monetizing indie film is a challenge, that is absolutely nothing new. That said, I’ve made a good chunk of income over the years from indie films, everything from shorts to features.

You certainly have a pretty dark opinion on something for which you have no direct, professional experience.
 
@ Alex - Thank you for your reply, good sir! You write so clearly! I'd be surprised if writing wasn't something you do as well as all your other skills!

I'm glad they're keeping you busy, even if it's for a bit less money and a bit less prestige. I'm in Utah (I think you're in Nashville maybe?), moving here from Los Angeles right before covid hit. A lot of my clients / connections are back in LA or in NY, so I don't know if it's my location or not given how poorly they're all doing.

A lot of my work is in commercials, and there's a bizarrely high number of Hallmark movies that are filmed here. There's a strong startup culture in Utah, so I've been hoping to hook up with some of these companies.

I even tried the Uber thing for a couple of months, but it basically netted out to $15 / hour, and it's exhausting. I do have some other thoughts / ideas, but this whole thing just caught me out, so I was pretty unprepared for it. Kept thinking it was only going to be a month, maybe two... and here we are.

Who knows? Maybe January will be magical, and your anomalous gig will prove to be a harbinger!

Fingers cross, sage burned, prayers sent.
 
@ Zach - Exactly what Alex just said. That's how the entire world works. If you're doing it out of love, as a hobby, out of wanting to learn, this is absolutely the best time to do so. The tools to make a film have never been so available to the common man. That "technology" is there for the taking.

Heck, you can even distribute it yourself to the entire world with the click of a button!

If anything, I'm actually getting the feeling that independent cinema is slowly making a comeback after all the formulaic, forgettable Hollywood output we've gotten the past several years has run its course.

Learn by doing, amigo. Even at my age, with all of my experience, I spend every single day learning something new, whether it's a new level in Photoshop, getting my brain wrapped around Blender, practicing color grading in Resolve... All of it!
 
Arash Ayrom said:
@ Alex - Thank you for your reply, good sir! You write so clearly! I'd be surprised if writing wasn't something you do as well as all your other skills!
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Much appreciated!

Arash Ayrom said:
I'm glad they're keeping you busy, even if it's for a bit less money and a bit less prestige. I'm in Utah (I think you're in Nashville maybe?), moving here from Los Angeles right before covid hit. A lot of my clients / connections are back in LA or in NY, so I don't know if it's my location or not given how poorly they're all doing.
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Funny thing is that I’ve actually been able to get my rates this year on most things. I’m not changing my rates for 2025, though. I know others who are increasing, but I’m not entirely sure I can push it much this year.

Which part of Utah? I know some production folks in Salt Lake City. I’m actually in Knoxville, the original home of HGTV.

Arash Ayrom said:
A lot of my work is in commercials, and there's a bizarrely high number of Hallmark movies that are filmed here. There's a strong startup culture in Utah, so I've been hoping to hook up with some of these companies.

I even tried the Uber thing for a couple of months, but it basically netted out to $15 / hour, and it's exhausting. I do have some other thoughts / ideas, but this whole thing just caught me out, so I was pretty unprepared for it. Kept thinking it was only going to be a month, maybe two... and here we are.
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Hallmark movies. Been there, done that. Low-budget (and freelance rate) machines. But, I guess if you can get in on them in volume, it can be sustainable.

Commercials are still where the good rates are to be found, but ad sales for linear have been plummeting and ad sales for streaming don’t command the rates that linear used to. Oddly, though, my last booking for this year was on a full-rate commercial. So… who knows?

I know quite a few folks who have adopted side hustles, including Uber/Lyft, with varying degrees of success. It certainly isn’t for everyone.

Arash Ayrom said:
Who knows? Maybe January will be magical, and your anomalous gig will prove to be a harbinger!

Fingers cross, sage burned, prayers sent.
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Yes. All those things.
 
Arash Ayrom said:
@ Zach - Exactly what Alex just said. That's how the entire world works. If you're doing it out of love, as a hobby, out of wanting to learn, this is absolutely the best time to do so. The tools to make a film have never been so available to the common man. That "technology" is there for the taking.

Heck, you can even distribute it yourself to the entire world with the click of a button!

If anything, I'm actually getting the feeling that independent cinema is slowly making a comeback after all the formulaic, forgettable Hollywood output we've gotten the past several years has run its course.

Learn by doing, amigo. Even at my age, with all of my experience, I spend every single day learning something new, whether it's a new level in Photoshop, getting my brain wrapped around Blender, practicing color grading in Resolve... All of it!
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I hope I'm wrong, but there has to be flaws in an artform that relies heavily on the opinion of others in the process of making it, and the result of it.
 
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Zachadoodle said:
It's going to take a lot to turn me over on that theory. Hopefully Alex isn't too irritated by what I say, but there obviously has to be flaws in an artform that relies heavily on the opinion of others in the process of making it, and the result of it. You need something to fall back on when you make an awful gamble on a movie and it sets you back financially.
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Zach, there’s not a single industry that doesn’t have flaws, or rely in some way on how other people see it. Hell, even Wall Street is pretty much based on the opinions of others.

And art has always been about two things: the intent of the artist, and the opinions of the audience. It’s strictly the latter that determines market value of the art.

What’s your point? Yeah, there are films that work and films that don’t. On the indie film level, the first challenge is getting funding. I’d wager that many of the contributors who put up money for indie films, know damn well they aren’t going to see much return, if any, on that investment. Indie films are often made with a hope to find distribution, but more as a way to get bigger projects funded. Make a good festival run and bank some street cred, possibly meet with the right producers and distributors along the way.

But here’s the thing: unless you are producing/directing and having to deal with the financing yourself, none of that matters. There’s still work out there for crew, whether in film or in TV/streaming. But you haven’t even gotten there yet. You were given advice on that in THIS THREAD. Did you ever follow any of that? Have you gotten connected to any film groups in your area? Have you set foot on even one set - paid or not - as a PA?
 
I signed up for volunteering for a news outlet at my university. I'll see what I can do with it when I get to the university. Guy was surprised I knew every camera brand out there.
 
I don’t expect macro-level headwinds to change significantly in the near future, with one possible exception: interest rates. While Trump has expressed a desire to lower interest rates, the Federal Reserve, which operates independently, has already signaled that rates are unlikely to shift much in 2025.

One of the key factors behind streamers scaling back production was the spike in interest rates, which made financing production through debt considerably more expensive. In theory, if borrowing costs decrease, we could see an uptick in production. However, it’s also possible that the era of aggressive spending in the streaming market has ended. If parent companies are no longer willing to accumulate debt to chase market share, then interest rates become a non-factor.

Another challenge is the ongoing shift in viewership habits. Linear TV is in decline, but where that audience goes is critical. If they’re migrating to streamers, production demand may remain steady. However, if they’re gravitating toward user-generated social videos, it could spell trouble for production. While there are signs that social video consumption growth is plateauing, the broader trend is worth monitoring.

Finally, AI isn't going to be good for anyone but post-production. And even there, it may lead to a decrease in job opportunities. Personally, I don't think AI will be as impactful as predicted. But if it has any impact at all, it will be to reduce shoot days.

There are some winners from this whole transition. A friend of mine made 2 viral videos of his own initiative for Instagram. The first was about how smartphones are brainwashing you. The second was about how social media is brainwashing you. Now he has a growing business from clients who saw his viral videos and want him to produce ads of a similar style. Here they are:


Although his projects operate on modest budgets, he handles everything—from shooting to editing—which makes his situation enviable. He’s now hiring me to help edit some of the overflow work. He also uses AI to generate stills and then add a bit of motion animation. I’m experimenting with Sora for one of his upcoming projects, but the results are decidedly mixed.

PS: Most of this post was cleaned up by ChatGPT because I find my prose to be rather clunky.
 
The irony of that same phone, same applications making the guy money/growing the business, lol.

I like them, this style is really popular for YouTube shorts. I'd say it's the most common form of filming and editing these days for short-form (usually with messaging).
 
I have one question: why do some people believe next year will bring improvement? Do they expect studios to become more confident and start greenlighting more projects? Or is it rooted in the belief that the overall economy might improve?

If you think the economy is struggling and has room to grow, I’ve got some bad news: the economy is already performing quite well. Median real household income has almost fully rebounded to its prior peak, unemployment is near historic lows, gas prices are under $3 a gallon, and the stock market has delivered back-to-back years of 20%+ gains—something we haven’t seen since the 1990s. The challenges we’re facing are specific to our industry and industries in a similar position.
 
ahalpert said:
I have one question: why do some people believe next year will bring improvement? Do they expect studios to become more confident and start greenlighting more projects? Or is it rooted in the belief that the overall economy might improve?

If you think the economy is struggling and has room to grow, I’ve got some bad news: the economy is already performing quite well. Median real household income has almost fully rebounded to its prior peak, unemployment is near historic lows, gas prices are under $3 a gallon, and the stock market has delivered back-to-back years of 20%+ gains—something we haven’t seen since the 1990s. The challenges we’re facing are specific to our industry and industries in a similar position.
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I've already sorted out my fears of the economy by majoring in business analytics with a minor in computer science. I believe it'll help me handle that.
 
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@ Abe - My biggest surprise was why commercial production took such a dive. A lot of my work is there (or used to be...), and it seems that companies are still operating, with tons more venues to actually advertise. Might just be a shift in how productions are done (like your friend's viral videos), but I honestly don't know.

People have been saying "January" since early summer, so I don't know if that still has to do with the economy / elections, or if it's something more to do with insider info about our industry. Something like new productions starting up then, or some other shifts that I'm not aware of.
 
In all the conversations I have had with showrunners, EPs, and production company owners, interest rates have never entered the conversation. Yes, it’s a factor… a smaller factor that affects spending in every industry, not just this one. Is it going to have an effect? Sure, inasmuch as it will affect any other business in how much it costs them to carry debt. But this is not the driving factor.

The key issue on the TV/streaming side is this: linear (cable) has been on a marked decline for some time now, with more and more people “cutting the cord”. When Netflix was the only game in town, they were doing quite well, but then everyone else started hopping on the streaming bandwagon and trying to compete for subscribers. Over the last few years, those companies (streaming platforms like Netflix, Amazon, and AppleTV+; and cable networks with their own streaming apps) poured gobs of money into programming for their streaming libraries to try and attract higher shares of the customer base.

The result of all this is that the market was flooded with programming. The supply side was saturated, but the demand side barely budged. Suddenly, all the streaming platforms realized they weren’t making any money. That’s when they stopped buying most programming, so they could reassess and see how they could monetize the industry in the new ecosystem.

For commercial production, well… ad spending is down on linear, and streaming isn’t seeing the ad sales that linear used to.

Arash Ayrom said:
People have been saying "January" since early summer, so I don't know if that still has to do with the economy / elections, or if it's something more to do with insider info about our industry. Something like new productions starting up then, or some other shifts that I'm not aware of.
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On the narrative side, there’s been the anticipation of productions waylaid by this year’s strikes being able to kick back into gear with the strikes resolved. The reason folks said “January” around that was that those projects had to go back to square one on pre-production. Any work they’d done on casting, locations, production design… that all had to be re-evaluated. So, the ends of the strikes meant getting back into pre-pro, not straight into production, so there’s a delay of a few months.

And that’s for the films that don’t up and move overseas.

Time will tell.
 
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