NVIDIA is the new bitcoin
- Thread starter Tom Roper
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You are so right. Economics was always the driver. The only thing new is that it's crept into more places, and now art. Automation has been advancing since the industrial age. Robots replaced manufacturing labor long ago. It made better quality products, reduced costs and made our lives generally better, until the point that it made our occupations replaceable. Consider we mandate a minimum wage of $20/hr. That incentivizes replacing those jobs too. At McDonalds, somebody used to be paid to pour drinks. We got rid of those people and made it self serve. That had some drawbacks. McDonalds installs a machine that automatically pours drinks now. No one is needed at the counter to take orders because they installed order kiosks. Currency is electronic. You don't even need the kiosk, just order with your phone app. Your credit card is touch free. Your phone is a voice activated supercomputer with facial recognition and its own AI photo editing. They pay someone to flip hamburger patties. Want to wager how long before THAT job gets replaced by automation too? I bet not long at all. In Europe you pay to use a public restroom. Add it on the menu and app. Japan has the self cleaning bathrooms. We've asked for all of this, whether we intended to or not. We support it, we use it. Cars self drive. Planes fly themselves. We converse with chat bots. Buy some Nvidia. Buy some lithium mining royalties. Diversify but don't get caught behind it, get out in front. It seems like about 25% of the people I see at the fast food counter are picking up for uber, grub hub, door dash.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
I meant by Paul Thomas Anderson. Like The Master or Phantom Thread (which also has Daniel Day-Lewis)
ahalpert
Major Contributor
It's a sensible move to pause a billion-dollar investment but I don't think it's going to work out quite like that
ahalpert
Major Contributor
It's funny to me that so many people say this looks photorealistic when it looks more like a video game. Which is still an accomplishment. Maybe they just need cataract surgery. But based on what we know about how Dalle works, Sora is probably regurgitating the closest-matching sample in its dataset, with alterations. Which is why different models from different companies produce such similar-looking output and also why I think they have massive copyright exposure. If courts rule that these models need permission from and compensation to the original content creators, then the advantage of AI largely evaporates. It's only valuable if it lets you legally rip people off.
Here's a good example, from a different model and application, illustrating how the current AI can't actually think or innovate and fails miserably when tasked with novelty: https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/sta...yyax1MtAw&s=19
For hints at the future impact of Sora, we should look to the impact of Dalle. Thus far, impactful but not as much as it was supposed to be
ahalpert
Major Contributor
They will try to automate those jobs regardless of the minimum wage. They already did, and nobody passed $20/hour minimum
ahalpert
Major Contributor
? I already own an FS7. Anyway, nothing you or I say matters. What will be will be and I'll adapt as needed
ahalpert
Major Contributor
ah, I get the analogy now. I disliked the FS7 so I passed on it and then later regretted not being an early adopter because it was very popular for its first few years. and now I dislike the idea of AI. I'm not sure what would be analogously embracing it though...
I mean, I am embracing it. I've used generative AI background expansion on still images numerous times. I've tried using generative AI to create stock footage b-roll on a few different projects, but it never worked well enough. on a recent project, it might have worked to transform some stock footage I got from getty into japanese woodblock print style. but my producer said we didn't want to confuse people into thinking that such woodblock prints existed for sale, since we're selling other prints (by the artist Hokusai). but otherwise it might have worked and done something cool, although it may have been a bad idea creatively anyway, at least for this project.
Peter C.
Veteran
Oh no. Are you one of those day traders?
No, I'm buy and hold. Short term capital gains (held less than 1 yr) are taxed at a higher rate. I think NVDA is a reasonably safe long term play as in the next year or two, for the amounts I'm willing to invest, with a promising upside potential, but trading at the historical high that it is, I would expect it could drop from here. It would have been better to have purchased it before now if I could have known, but the risk of not buying it now is to potentially miss out on a continued run up. I have generally avoided most common stocks in favor of no load mutual funds that appreciate slower but spread the risk. Most of the market gains happen across 2 or 3 big days during the year, so whatever you do you have to be "in" for those days. There are big drop days too but the market generally recovers and you only lose if you sell during one of those plunges. You could say I'm a day "watcher" with regrets I missed out on some like Tesla, Apple, although my mutual fund portfolios include some amounts of those too.
This chap seems to have had pretty good luck with his timing:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...1&cvid=23a67082314840c4a52ce6c424519cbd&ei=19
Peter C.
Veteran
Yes I've heard about this years ago that it's not illegal for government officials and politicians to have their spouse make trades on companies that are effected by the legislation they're working on. Basically if you want to make money you need some sort of "edge". It's insider trading but since there's no way to prove she gave her husband a tip, nothing is going to happen.
Generative AI is all the buzz, and some real high flyers on Wall Street, right now, AMD up big, Dell up monstrously big, Nvidia still rising fast, even Intel is up, and Meta. Sorry Apple, you're not included, not you Tesla, nor Google and Amazon. I've opened my checkbook. All good things come to an end, but end is not in sight for AI. The big banks and funds are buying, J.P. Morgan, Vanguard, Blackrock.
Bassman2003
Veteran
I think the AI thing has legs because it is kind of the only/best game in town right now. Although the broader market had a nice day on Friday. Nvidia will run until it stumbles and it met and exceeded some expectations not too long ago. The hype will continue until people start realizing that the equities get so high that they can never do that much business to justify the run up. Then it will be musical chairs. So obvious but it happens over and over. Just try to be on the lookout for cracks appearing and then sell Nvidia. But that might not happen for a while as Wall Street is very good at defying logic until it is abundantly obvious that logically, things are unsustainable. Then there might be a sell-off but odds are even after the sell-off Nvidia will still be a decent level. Why? because unlike past bubbles, Nvidia is actually making crazy money, so the speculation is not about their finances like in the dot com bubble. The stock will not 're-rate' unless they stop making money. So this is not an $800 down to $100 dollar situation.
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