Writer's Guild Going on Strike

Tom Roper said:
A hit on earnings is not the same thing as a loss. WBD is still forecasting earnings of $10.5-11.0B for 2023.
Click to expand...

the argument you made before was that the strikes would be reported in quarterly filings as a net positive for cash flow because of fewer outlays, which would help studios hold the line. I don't know if this regulatory filing is the same thing as a quarterly report, but they are now publicly stating that they will earn less money this year because of the strikes, not more. it's no longer possible to delude anyone that the strikes will help their financial picture, even in the near term.
 
ahalpert said:
the argument you made before was that the strikes would be reported in quarterly filings as a net positive for cash flow because of fewer outlays, which would help studios hold the line. I don't know if this regulatory filing is the same thing as a quarterly report, but they are now publicly stating that they will earn less money this year because of the strikes, not more.
Click to expand...

I said, quoting Warner Bros. CEO David Zaslav that "the Hollywood writers and actors’ ongoing work stoppage had brought the company savings in the low $100 million range during its Q2 earnings results call Thursday, and that should the strike run through the end of the year there could be several $100 million upside to our free cash flow guidance and some incremental downside for adjusted EBITDA."

it's no longer possible to delude anyone that the strikes will help their financial picture, even in the near term.
Click to expand...

David is referring to the work stoppage having saved $100M in payouts, not earnings and acknowledged the downside for earnings in that statement. Cash flow and statements of working capital are financial instruments accounted for separately from income because they measure a company's solvency, its liquidity. It indicates that a company has enough money coming in to reinvest in the business, pay down debt, return money to shareholders, and withstand financial challenges. Separately, it is the purpose of the income statement is to display the company’s financial performance in a given period.

Income statements and working capital/cash flow statements form different parts of the financial picture. It is not deluding anyone who understands financial statements.
 
Tom Roper said:
I said, quoting Warner Bros. CEO David Zaslav that "the Hollywood writers and actors’ ongoing work stoppage had brought the company savings in the low $100 million range during its Q2 earnings results call Thursday, and that should the strike run through the end of the year there could be several $100 million upside to our free cash flow guidance and some incremental downside for adjusted EBITDA."



David is referring to the work stoppage having saved $100M in payouts, not earnings and acknowledged the downside for earnings in that statement. Cash flow and statements of working capital are financial instruments accounted for separately from income because they measure a company's solvency, its liquidity. It indicates that a company has enough money coming in to reinvest in the business, pay down debt, return money to shareholders, and withstand financial challenges. Separately, it is the purpose of the income statement is to display the company’s financial performance in a given period.

Income statements and working capital/cash flow statements form different parts of the financial picture. It is not deluding anyone who understands financial statements.
Click to expand...

This is a silly analysis. I'm not trying to imply that WB is at risk of imminent bankruptcy. The point is that they're losing more money due to the strikes than they're saving from not paying people. So much more that they could more than fund the entire incremental contract cost increase for the whole industry with their foregone earnings. And it could get much, much worse for them if the strikes go on any longer. Their earnings are currently buttressed by stuff they made last year, namely Barbie. The earnings hit they're taking right now is just the tip of the iceberg.

Ergo they are running out of leverage fast. The strikers may be as well but it's a battle of wills. Unless you think they're actually willing to burn through all their working capital before they'll make a deal.
 
My observation is that corporate America is very sensitive to share price, which is very sensitive to earnings and future expected earnings. If you want to see stock growth, it's not enough to stay solvent. Wall Street wants you to maximize your earnings. And share price is essentially how CEOs make their money.

The US lost in Vietnam even though only 58k American soldiers died vs 1M North Vietnamese. But we were less willing to tolerate the bloodshed. (And shouldn't have been there in the first place, but that's beside the point here.)

Furthermore -- and I think this is a crucial point -- consumer trends that are altered by the strikes may last for years and have a decisive impact on market share. People who cut the cord are not going to come back. People who stop going to the theater may not come back either. I think that the losses of theatrical box office and linear TV are generally good for streamers. But most streamers are struggling to gain a foothold. Only Netflix and the FASTs are truly guaranteed to live to fight another day. Max and Disney+ have already declined from their subscriber peaks and that was before the strikes happened. Their future is uncertain.

Netflix share price was at $324 on May 1, the day before the WGA strike started. Now they're at $445. WBD was at $13.29. Now they're at $11.58. Disney was at $102. Now they're at $82.

The WBD SEC filing predicts the strikes will end before 2024. They're practically announcing when they'll fold. (Not really, but almost.) Conversely, Drescher said they would strike for as long as it takes. And yes, strikers are hurting. But this is also an exceptionally strong labor market. It's going to be far easier for strikers to find alternative sources of income than it will be for corporations if it comes to that.
 
It will end the same as any labor strike, the union declares victory, the corporations will say it is a good deal for both sides.

But the problem here is solidarity, or rather lack of it. The WGA in particular is garnering a reputation for incompetence. The WGA has rejected offers of mediation help from outside the industry, politicians and business figures. "They don't want help from anyone," said the individual, who was frustrated that there's no active negotiation happening. "They think everyone is complicit."

Moreover, the WGA is arguing with its top showrunners that are having their deals with the studios suspended, or cancelled. The guild is accused of holding out indefinitely for its first ask. The showrunners want a deal negotiated soon, are considering leaving the union and working independently, a sign of how the trust is beginning to fray between leadership and influential members.

Ms. Drescher can say they will hold out for as long as it takes, along with chief negotiator Ellen Stutzman and committee co-chairs Chris Keyser and David A. Goodman but their leadership is toxic and ineffectual.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/w...e&cvid=57a53d92d11a4e858c2fc5e68f9848e1&ei=62
 
Tom Roper said:
It will end the same as any labor strike, the union declares victory, the corporations will say it is a good deal for both sides.

But the problem here is solidarity, or rather lack of it. The WGA in particular is garnering a reputation for incompetence. The WGA has rejected offers of mediation help from outside the industry, politicians and business figures. "They don't want help from anyone," said the individual, who was frustrated that there's no active negotiation happening. "They think everyone is complicit."

Moreover, the WGA is arguing with its top showrunners that are having their deals with the studios suspended, or cancelled. The guild is accused of holding out indefinitely for its first ask. The showrunners want a deal negotiated soon, are considering leaving the union and working independently, a sign of how the trust is beginning to fray between leadership and influential members.

Ms. Drescher can say they will hold out for as long as it takes, along with chief negotiator Ellen Stutzman and committee co-chairs Chris Keyser and David A. Goodman but their leadership is toxic and ineffectual.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/w...e&cvid=57a53d92d11a4e858c2fc5e68f9848e1&ei=62
Click to expand...

Just like always, money talks and bull$h!t walks...
 
Tom Roper said:
It will end the same as any labor strike, the union declares victory, the corporations will say it is a good deal for both sides.

But the problem here is solidarity, or rather lack of it. The WGA in particular is garnering a reputation for incompetence. The WGA has rejected offers of mediation help from outside the industry, politicians and business figures. "They don't want help from anyone," said the individual, who was frustrated that there's no active negotiation happening. "They think everyone is complicit."

Moreover, the WGA is arguing with its top showrunners that are having their deals with the studios suspended, or cancelled. The guild is accused of holding out indefinitely for its first ask. The showrunners want a deal negotiated soon, are considering leaving the union and working independently, a sign of how the trust is beginning to fray between leadership and influential members.

Ms. Drescher can say they will hold out for as long as it takes, along with chief negotiator Ellen Stutzman and committee co-chairs Chris Keyser and David A. Goodman but their leadership is toxic and ineffectual.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/w...e&cvid=57a53d92d11a4e858c2fc5e68f9848e1&ei=62
Click to expand...

I mean, people have said they should take the recent offer from AMPTP because it's better than their previous contract. People also said they should just swallow their previous contract. I think there's no doubt that the strike has moved the needle. If they get an even better deal than the last offer, then it's definitely a victory.

But I talked to a high-profile DP a little while ago who said he thought some of the WGA demands were excessive, specifically how many weeks (was it 8?) that they wanted to hire a writer through the post-production process in order to train them as a showrunner. I don't think anyone expects either union to get all of their asks. But I do think that the AMPTP is still playing games when you look at the specifics of what they're offering.

As for influential members, their incentives are different from the rank and file. By the time they're in hot demand, I don't think they really need the protection of a union anyway.
 
ahalpert said:
But I do think that the AMPTP is still playing games when you look at the specifics of what they're offering.
Click to expand...

No doubt, but they hold all the chips. The unions have tried to damage them or have damaged them. I wouldn't expect them to play nice now. Rather than negotiate line by line with the sharks, the most meaningful concession they could make would be to accept an offer of 3rd party mediation.
 
Tom Roper said:
No doubt, but they hold all the chips. The unions have tried to damage them or have damaged them. I wouldn't expect them to play nice now. Rather than negotiate line by line with the sharks, the most meaningful concession they could make would be to accept an offer of 3rd party mediation.
Click to expand...

They don't hold all the chips. They can't even make anything without writers.

The studios were never playing nice. But mostly they're just going to make calculations about profits and losses.

Sooner or later they can hash this out at a negotiating table. But it sure looks to me like AMPTP has used its recent meetings as PR opportunities rather than earnest bargaining.

The article you linked is entirely based on quotes from a single anonymous source who is clearly trying to undermine the WGA. Who knows what's really going on. WGA claims in an update to that article that the showrunners canceled the meeting, not them.

And it's true what WGA says there -- AMPTP members have disparate business interests. Netflix stock is riding high. Why would Netflix want this to end. There's a monopoly at the end of the rainbow for them.
 
ahalpert said:
Yeah, advertisers love that. Also, not a great sign that his fans don't know how his name is spelled
Click to expand...

Ah, you got me on that one!! I had a friend in high school that spelled it without the e.
What advertisers are you referring to? He's on HBO.
 
ahalpert said:
Oh yeah good point. Well, hopefully they'll picket him to hell
Click to expand...

He won't care. He is untouchable even if HBO cancels him. FU money.
If the writers want to strike, fine. I hope it works out for them. But the rest of the world need not come to a halt.
 
Doug Jensen said:
He won't care. He is untouchable even if HBO cancels him. FU money.
If the writers want to strike, fine. I hope it works out for them. But the rest of the world need not come to a halt.
Click to expand...

All the hosts have FU money. All the more reason he doesn't need to scab. He's undermining the living standards of the rank and file in the industry

He knows what the right thing to do is or he never would have suspended his show to begin with
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top