BobDiaz
The Professor
I got to thinking about the product life of the DVX-100 and realized that it first started shipping in October 2002; about 6 years ago. Interestingly enough, it's still being sold, but with the HMC-150 out, the DVX-100b must be reaching the end of its product life.
Now there's no law that says that Panasonic HAS to introduce a replacement camera every 6 years or that an "A" model comes out 2 years later ("B" in another 2 years) , but humor me and assume that they will follow that pattern with the HMC-150.
That would mean that the HMC-150a should start shipping around the end of 2010. However, with the poor economy, maybe this could delay things to late 2011.
By NAB 2014, we'll all be talking about the new "xxx-xxx" camera that should be replacing the HMC-150. Hard to say what the higher end cameras will do, but I'll bet that 12 bit (or higher) recording will be common by then. So, maybe the lower end will be pushing 10 bit recording.
The price per GB will continue to drop for HCSD cards. In 3 years, 2012, the price for a 32GB HCSC card will be about the same as an 8GB card today and the price for an 8GB card in 2012 will be around the same price as a 2GB card today.
In 3 years, with memory cards so cheap, it will be hard to justify using tape. Which is why I think that in 3 years, tape will do a slow fade to black. It won't go away overnight, but over the years its use will dimish.
I think that most know that the upcoming Full Power Analog Shutdown on February 17, 2009 is not going to go well with some people. However, once we get through the mess, more and more people are going to be watching HD. Not that the Analog shutdown forces any station to broadcast in HD, but more and more stations seem to be switching to HD.
Blu-ray prices have already dropped and I see no reason why they won't drop even more in 2009. Maybe 2010 will be the year that most people buying a player will buy Blu-ray....
Well that's my guess for the future... If only I could see what the S&P500 would look like during that time period, I'd be a happy camper...
Bob Diaz
Now there's no law that says that Panasonic HAS to introduce a replacement camera every 6 years or that an "A" model comes out 2 years later ("B" in another 2 years) , but humor me and assume that they will follow that pattern with the HMC-150.
That would mean that the HMC-150a should start shipping around the end of 2010. However, with the poor economy, maybe this could delay things to late 2011.
By NAB 2014, we'll all be talking about the new "xxx-xxx" camera that should be replacing the HMC-150. Hard to say what the higher end cameras will do, but I'll bet that 12 bit (or higher) recording will be common by then. So, maybe the lower end will be pushing 10 bit recording.
The price per GB will continue to drop for HCSD cards. In 3 years, 2012, the price for a 32GB HCSC card will be about the same as an 8GB card today and the price for an 8GB card in 2012 will be around the same price as a 2GB card today.
In 3 years, with memory cards so cheap, it will be hard to justify using tape. Which is why I think that in 3 years, tape will do a slow fade to black. It won't go away overnight, but over the years its use will dimish.
I think that most know that the upcoming Full Power Analog Shutdown on February 17, 2009 is not going to go well with some people. However, once we get through the mess, more and more people are going to be watching HD. Not that the Analog shutdown forces any station to broadcast in HD, but more and more stations seem to be switching to HD.
Blu-ray prices have already dropped and I see no reason why they won't drop even more in 2009. Maybe 2010 will be the year that most people buying a player will buy Blu-ray....
Well that's my guess for the future... If only I could see what the S&P500 would look like during that time period, I'd be a happy camper...
Bob Diaz
