Stock Market burning down!

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Not the harbinger of a depression, but they do tell how the economy is functioning and how people are feeling about the market.

No one can predict the market. But we can make educated decisions. Which is why I love using software to track the markets progression. Basically seeing the ticker isn't anything compared to getting level II quotes live. Tracking the market tick by tick is certainly almost scary.

Since one minute you are up the next second even you are dropping like a rock. It's unpredictable. But you can make guesses on trends.
 
Mattykins said:
Not the harbinger of a depression, but they do tell how the economy is functioning and how people are feeling about the market.

\ds.
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The second part is definitely true. It's a psychological metric.

But with regards to the first part I'm not so sure. I'm saying it's not an accurate indicator. Economists aren't beholden to it to the extent Financial Advisors are. I heard a Princeton economist refer to the Dow as an "Imperfect reflection of a Platonic truth". But for the here and now, a lot of us, myself included, not to mention pension funds all over America and the rest of the world are getting our butts kicked right now.
 
Financial gobbly-gook is so not my thing, but as a casual and uninformed observer, there seems to be a discomforting consolidation of banks, much like during the Depression.

More are predicted to fail. What will be left is a few mega-banks controlling the lion's share of the world's money. Maybe I'm being paranoid.

I think once a few more biggies collapse, the market will right itself and begin the long road to recovery, flowing credit will once again get business as usual rolling, and this will all be in the history books - only to happen again when the market needs another major valve adjustment.

For the 30-somethings, this is a major bump in the road. For the 60-somethings, it a lifetime of planning out the window.

Glad I was never an investor. Not one farthing ever. Cash kinda guy.


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alex whitmer said:
I think once a few more biggies collapse, the market will right itself and begin the long road to recovery, flowing credit will once again get business as usual rolling, and this will all be in the history books - only to happen again when the market needs another major valve adjustment.



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You may be 100% right, however the conventional wisdom holds that governments, not other banks will take control and ownership over some of these big institutions. That's what the bailout was all about.
Who knows what's next.
 
Warren Buffet, the Oracle of Omaha, recently said the US economy is "Like a great athlete, and right now that athlete is in cardiac arrest."
 
I never thought I'd say this.... but I agree with Brian.
:)

Okay - seriously though - this isn't even a discussion we should be having on this board.
What happened to "keep it civil, upbeat and friendly"?

But - as long as you can keep politics out of it, we should be okay.
This is a friendly reminder - but next time the thread will have to go.
 
okay, give me some numbers...

what would the Dow have to drop to for you to feel comfortable investing again? 8000, 7000, 6000... i'm really interested in hearing some opinions on the matter.
 
I would be sad to see this close...

But personally I'd be investing now. Especially after the drop today. You can sell short and make a good deal of money. If you invested in the Ultrashort ETFs you would have pulled a 53% return since the slide two weeks back.

16% if you invested in POT three days ago.

I was thinking the market would level out at 8000. Though I must say - I was surprised today. I did not see today coming at all.

Tomorrow will open lower. The international indices won't look favorably upon today.
 
Why is this bad? I don't get it. A lot of the run up in the indexes over the last 10 years or so, was the result of bubbles (first internet, then financials). So what is coming down is what HAD to come down. It's not like some undeserved loss of value. It was paper values which got brought down to reality. So why cry? Yeah, I get that many 401K and retirement funds got hit, but that's what happens when you have institutions invest irresponsibly. So again, what's so bad here? If you say that the values are going below what they should be objectively (based on economic performance), then that is good news - it means you can buy low... and the whole point of investing is to buy low. So again what's bad here? I dunno, the lower it goes, the happier I get. It was a long overdue correction, needed to squeeze out all the excesses. And in fact there will be benefits from this. When the dust settles, we'll get much better regulation (and that fraud, Greenspan's reputation will be the sh|t it deserves to be - always hated the man :)). All in all, I see mostly positives. As far as I'm concerned, it would be best if the DOW went to 6500 and Nasdaq to 1200 - that would bring things in line with true valuation (based on economic value). I'm afraid however, that won't be allowed to happen (much as it needs that medicine), because the meddling politicians will prop this whole carcass up, setting us up for the next bubble that will cause much more damage down the road.
 
Corpse,

It doesn't matter if you had a low risk account or not. People didn't invest irresponsibility. Everything is dropping. Since everything is dropping. Your mutual funds are dropping. For the Dow to get to 6500 - it would be terrible.

It's not good at all. It will be next to impossible to get loans because of this. People retiring in 5 years or less - they are done for. College will be harder to pay for. There is nothing positive about it.

Japan's Nikkei lost 10.64% since yesterday. Which is a huge intraday drop. Which is a 64% drop from August. So yes - that's bad. Which means - since every global indice is down. We should open lower tomorrow. My guess. Dunno what will happen tomorrow. I didn't see today coming.
 
my wife and i are in a good position because we don't have much invested. yes, the 401k is taking a hit, but we don't have enough in there to affect us long term. we're saving up money to start investing once this thing bottoms out.

i really feel sorry for people like my parents that are a lot closer to retirement age; they are getting hammered.
 
OldCorpse, in a perfect world you'd be right -- this would be a good opportunity. But the problem is people have lost confidence in the market and banking, and that tends to have a snowball effect. It's the kind of mentality that causes disastrous runs on banks. The farther down the market goes, the more people bail out of it -- which makes it tank even more.

You're right, buying low is a great thing. But who knows where 'low' will be? What if the company you buy now goes bankrupt next week? It's a formidable challenge, even for investment professionals -- which most of us aren't.

If I were buying in the market now, I'd buy things like Microsoft and Wal-Mart. I feel fairly confident they will weather the storm and come out the other end, however long that takes. Maybe some oil company stock too.

But I can't afford to do that. Right now I'm pouring all of my extra money into stockpiling three things -- food, fuel and ammo.

I hope things turn around soon. If they don't, God help us all.
 
TimurCivan said:
Buy gold.....
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I can't eat gold.

If society collapses and the only way to get what you need is to barter, people are going to be desperate for food, fuel, clothes, blankets, candles, bottled water, medicines. Gold is only good if you can find someone to buy it or trade for it. If we're all in the same boat, that's going to be hard.
 
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