Price drop on HVX and all cameras once RED is released?

Jack_Felis said:
True, David, but remember, Jim tested the RED with still lenses and if that made Mike at HDForIndies and Jarred excited, then that's a good indication that there's an alternative for those who can just barely afford the RED when it comes out.
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A new lense for the XLH1 cots 3k minumum. A new lense for the HD100 costs 8k minimum. I really don't understand how a camera with far more resolution and needing to resolve far more detail can make do wtih a $500 lense. It just doesn't make sense.
 
A theory

A theory

Here's a theory about the release of the Red camera lowering the price of the HVX.

Assumption: When the Red camera comes out, it proves to be everything it's now claiming to be -- and it's essentially claiming to be significantly better than the Varicam and CineAlta.

Therefore, subsequent to the confirmed success of Red, the Varicam and CineAlta must be priced significantly lower than the Red camera in order to compete.

That would place the VariCam, for example, somewhere south of $15K. (It can't just be slightly lower than the Red if the Red is truly what it is purported to be.)

And if a Varicam is under $15K, who would buy an HVX with P2 cards for $8-10K? The price would have to come down for the camera to remain marketable.

Theoretically, that's how the Red could exert downward pressure on the price of the HVX . Of course, this theory depends on a huge assumption, and I have no idea what I'm talking about.
 
BrianF said:
That would place the VariCam, for example, somewhere south of $15K. (It can't just be slightly lower than the Red if the Red is truly what it is purported to be.)
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This is wishful thinking and just will not happen. We cannot make them that cheaply. Remember there is an on-board recording device and a number of other things. Best to say when the Red delivers it will serve another portion of the market.

Best,

jan
 
^
A fine argument Brian but let me present another.

If the average Red package does what it should for $35k (I think that was a reasonible assumption), then yes prices would go down (though perhaps not as drastically as you suggest). I'd guess that a CineAlta package would drop to roughly 25k which would give us a Varicam at about 15k. And HVX with two 8 gig P2 cards or a Cineporter runs about 8k now. By the time RED is released and prices drop even further, it'll probably be about 7k. I've seen one Vari vs. HVX comparison and it was interesting but the HVX200 didn't look quite properly tweaked and it also performs much better from what I've heard if you start at 1080p and downRez for an even better 720p. I'd love for someone to do a test as such (aside from the first shootout in which case niether looked too hot). Still, lets just pretend that the Varicam is twice as good as the HVX. If the HVX200 is only half as good the I do think people will still buy it at half as much. There's also still the matter of size and usability. For pros, no one would bother decking out an HVX200 with a mattebox, 35mm adapater, follow focus, ect. However, as a camera that you can just pick up and use without a lot of hassle, the HVX200 will still be a very viable alternative. Look an consumer camcorders. People are willing to pay more for same thing if it's smaller and less combursome. I think such will be the case for the HVX if the Varicam becomes cheap.
 
A drop in the price of a Maserati has little effect on the price of a Lexus.

Both are good transportation, but for a different target.
 
Red will have zero affect on HVX200 pricing.

Red will have an effect on HVX900 pricing, however. Can't charge 26k when you are getting blown out of the ballpark for 17.5.

However, Red still has to deliver NLE and product support right from the get-go. No easy task.
 
maybe by then the cinemek will be out for our HVX's... Red might have an affect on the price of Oakley sunglasses though.
 
Where?

Where?

Jan, exactly where are the HVX's made?



Jan_Crittenden said:
This is wishful thinking and just will not happen. We cannot make them that cheaply. Remember there is an on-board recording device and a number of other things. Best to say when the Red delivers it will serve another portion of the market.

Best,

jan
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David S. said:
A drop in the price of a Maserati has little effect on the price of a Lexus.

Both are good transportation, but for a different target.
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Well, this happens because people are looking at the car design and not at the performance. I don't care if my camera looks like crap if it outperforms the very posh looking "Ferrari" that costs 200% more...
 
Zig_Zigman said:
Red will have zero affect on HVX200 pricing.

Red will have an effect on HVX900 pricing, however. Can't charge 26k when you are getting blown out of the ballpark for 17.5.
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And HDX900 lower price will affect HVX price.
Or if you dont like this then Z1 or H1 or HD100 lower price will affect HVX price.
 
DavidBeier said:
A Red with a decent recording device and lense is probably going to cost around 20k-25k.

An HVX200 with a FS-100 can be found for around 7k.

They're not in the same price range. They aren't bought by the same groups of people.
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Be careful of blanket statements like these. I can tell you already that what you've said is false, because I own an HVX and I'm fully intent on purchasing a Red One.

There is a decent discrepancy in the price, but up until very recently there hasn't been any alternative in this range. When I bought the HVX in January, my choice for HD production with variable framerates was a $6,000 HVX or a $65,000 Varicam. Well, that's a HUGE differencial. If I had $17,500 to spend it didn't matter - I still only had one option.

There are a few new cameras now out/soon coming out that will bridge the gap some, but Red is the only one anywhere near the price range that offers all that it does. The HDX900 is a cool camera, but still doesn't have variable framerates, maxes out at 1080i, and is thousands of dollars more than Red. The higher-end of the two XDCAM HD models has 1/2" chips (!) and loses half the resolution when VFR at certain speeds are selected. And they're both priced to protect the upper end catalog items (the F900 and the Varicam) by not eating into the "upper end" features (in this case, 2/3" chips, variable framerates across the board, higher total resolution).

If it weren't for Red, the price of the F900 and Varicam could probably stay where they're at now. Obviously Sony and Panasonic weren't planning on a third party coming in from out of nowhere and shaking things up (and so soon). And Jan is probably right - with a DVCPRO HD tape mechanism and other complex parts, there is no way they could sell the Varicam for $15K. But that won't change the fact that they aren't going to be able to command $65,000 for a 720p-only camera with 2/3" chips after Red drops. Panasonic and Sony have a lot of thinking to do.

Red won't affect HVX pricing (there's no reason it should), but it will affect everything priced higher that does heaps less. And it's a good thing, too, because it's going to force some of the "big guys" to finally start being realistic about what they're charging.
 
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Laco said:
I'm affraid that Panasonic and Sony are thinking how to buy RED company :-)
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Well I know that we are not going to buy Red, why would we? We already know how to make cameras, chip sets and recording devices, plus we have a world wide network set up of repair and service and sales. Don't see that they have much to sell that we don't already have.

Best,

Jan
 
Laco said:
Panasonic know how to make great cameras but what about cheaper ones :-)
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Show me another camera that utilizes a professional codec, designed from the ground up for the Professional production industry, namely DVCPRO HD, and have it sell for under $10,000. Frankly there isn't one and so in that respect we do offer cheaper cameras and great ones.

Take a look at the SDX900, does DVCPRO50 for the same price as the Sony DSR-450 DVCAM. Take a look at the HDX900, 2/3" DVCPRO HD up against the XDCAM HDV product with 1/2" chipsets. Again, a bargain. Take a look at the VariCam, up against the CineAlta, the VariCam currently has a $14,000 rebate and it is $30,000 less than the CineAlta to start with.

So what will happen with the intro of the Red? Who knows? Fact is, that it is not a camera today, and once it is, it has to hit certain standards of performance, recording, reliability, serviceability, and flexibility. There is more to being a manufacturer than just saying i want to make something. There has to be something there that says you are in the business to stay and will be standing behind your product for years to come, long after the whim has settled into the cold reality of making a product.

As an example, people have pointed out the support for MII to me over the last year; crying that we do not support it any longer. Well, we stopped making the boards, yet there is still service being done by independents. Point is MII went out of production in 1997. We stopped taking the machines in for service in 2004, that is a good 7 years after we stopped making money in the selling stages. ;-) We are in the business to stay and we will be here for our customers for a very long time.

Best,

Jan
 
Service? One sensor and one chip? No problem - take sensor an send it by mail. Or download and upgrade firmware. There are no moving parts, no rotating heads, no tapes, ... less parts to break or clean.
 
Jan, I like you. You've been very responsive to this community over the past few years and I don't think there's any question that your willingness to particpate, listen, and respond to the community has been an immense asset to lot of people (myself included). I'd go so far as to say that your interaction with individual members - on a public discussion forum, no less - has created a model and set a new presidence for companies like Red, who are thriving off of user input to make their products the best they can be for the people who use them. And I for one am extremely grateful for that.

There are a few problems however with the offerings that the established companies have made in the realm of professional video acquisition as of late, and I think that the approach that is being taken is having an adverse affect on the progress of the equipment itself.

You mentioned that as far as price is concerned, what you are selling now could be considered a "bargain." When I look at through the list of current products from your company (and others), however, I'm left feeling more confused than overjoyed. The AJ-SPC700 looks to be a great SD camera - DVCPRO 50, 2/3" chips, that nice shoulder mount form factor that a lot of people appreciate having. But wait, where's the 24p? Looks like to step up to that, you need the AJ-SPX800 at a cost of $6,500 more. Considering that the DVX can do it for under three grand, you can't honestly expect me to believe that it costs $6,500 to implement 24p in the SPX. In fact, we aren't even talking about physical parts or any new machinery at all... just a tweak of the software. So why create two models where one is crippled when they both cost the same to make and a single, inclusive unit would present a better value to the customer? Well, the answer of course is profit.

Sony is playing this silly game too by stripping the variable framerate function from their "higher end" XDCAM HD - so anyone who wants a full feature set has to shell out thousands more in cash to get it. But besides a pair of HD-SDI jacks, that's the only difference between the two cameras! Do the companies really think we aren't noticing this stuff?

What's even more frustrating is that as we're moving toward solid state (P2) or optical media (Professional Disc) acquisition and away from the costly tape mechanisms and hardware, the manufacturers are actually charging more in some cases for the products that don't have the expensive parts in them! The P2-based SPX costs a cool $19,500 while it's tape-based cousin, the SDX, can be had for $3,000 less! We KNOW the technology to use P2 and 24p and variable frame rates doesn't incur some great expense, because you have a 1/3" camera (the HVX) that does all of that and more for only $6,000! Now you can see how it almost becomes insulting to the customer at some point.

Where's the 2/3" camera that combines DVCPRO HD, variable framerates, and P2 into one great package? The technology for all three has been present in your own lineup for a few years now, and just looking at current products on the list it's easy to see that such a camera could be made pretty inexpensively. Given what we know from the HVX that implementing variable framerates and P2 isn't expensive and considering that that the 2/3", 1080-capable HDX900 is available for $26,500, one could deduce that a 2/3" P2 camera with variable framerates (call it Varicam II or whatever you like) could be sold for that same $26,500. Probably less, since the P2 version wouldn't need that costly DVCPRO HD drive. Of course, the Panasonic CEO doesn't want me to point that out because then they could never justify selling one for $65,000 again! And I understand that there is R&D to be figured into the development of new technologies and things aren't quite as cut and dry as that, but you must admit that a $26,500 price tag and a $65,000 pricetag is a pretty big gap. Even more than the price, though, I think most of us just want a camera that isn't crippled and gives us everything we are looking for using the best we can get from today's technology. That's what Red is promising and I think that's the reason they are getting so much attention.

You're right, there isn't a completed Red camera yet. But they've been reporting that things are on schedule, that they're still aiming to show footage at IBC in less than a month, and if all goes according to plan, the engineering models will be ready in just four months. Four months is nothing - and for a lot of us, it's soon enough to hold out and see what happens before we buy anything else. It's true, they are a new company and there will probably be bumps along the way. But it feels really nice for a change to know that a company is giving us all they can at a price that's fair, and they aren't holding anything back. In fact, they're opening the flood gates. To me, that's what defines a "bargain."
 
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Don't treat Jan like a company. Companies don't have morals or feelings, be a bit sensitive. ;)

Basically what's happening here is you have established players (Sony, Panasonic, and others) who have an established business model and are business to make *gasp* profits. Imagine that. We're in the industry to make profits from our work and they're in the industry to make profits off the tools we use to make our work. Now you've got the deep pocket oakley guys who are coming in to offer a camera with insane features at a low low price. These guys are camera and video fan boys who didn't see what they wanted out there in a camera and had the cash and know-how to make their own that does.

How will this affect Sony and Panasonic? It will affect them, but more in an overall sense than a price-drop sense.

Red isn't even finished yet but when it is, how many cameras will they honestly be able to manufacture? We haven't heard anything about their release plans, but I have a feeling there's a lot of us that will be waiting. I can go get an HVX or a Varicam or whatever right now. So if you need a camera right now, then you need to get one that's available right now. Even when the Red is released, if there's a wait time to receive yours and you need it right then, you'll have to go grab one of the existing ones off the shelf. It's safe to say that at least initially, Sony and Panasonic will have more manufacturing muscle than the Red guys will.

Also important is NLE support. Right now I can get an HVX and it'll work with the major NLE's along with some smaller ones. From what I've read the Red guys are working right now on prototype support for Final Cut but that's what it is, prototype. Will we have a new release of Final Cut the same day as Red so that anything we shoot in Red will work in the copy of Final Cut we can pick up off the shelf. What about Avid? What if we need to transfer projects from Final Cut to Avid? These are still big questions for people who have to generate content every day of every week of every year and has to have it work. I know DVCPRO HD works because everyone is using it. Right now only a handful of engineers is using whatever prototype Red Codec that will be the basis for what the camera will use, that not enough in the world experience for my liking. Red will do uncompressed of course but I don't have the money to handle an uncompressed workflow, and doing approx. a half hour of finished product every day would make an uncompressed workflow very costly for delivery of content to my editors, editing, and backing up. There's still a lot of workflow questions to be answered, and that'll take a few years beyond the early adopters to get worked out.

So all this gets worked out and Red gets their manufacturing up to snuff. Will it be widely adopted as a standard? Will I be investing in a camera and workflow only to find that a few years later people are abandoning it? DVCPRO HD is getting to be more and more prevalent, Red Codec is... a prototype. As all production transfers over to HD we need to know that whatever we invest in will be able to last us because it's vitally financially important.


Will any of this affect the hobbiest? Or the indie film geek who is the only one who will be shooting and editing his features? Nope. This camera is PERFECT for that, and I have a feeling there's a lot of these hobbiest / indie film individuals who frequent this site. You have to look at the bigger picture with stuff like this. Not at how much things cost, but how much value you're willing to pay for. I don't spend more money on a macintosh vs. a windoze pc for my health. I do it because I know it's a product that will offer me better performance for what I need it to do with limited downtime and when there is downtime I'm back up quick because I don't get phone support that's transferred to india where I can understand anything they say other than "Microsoft". I want the same thing out of my cameras. The P2 workflow and DVCPRO HD codec is out in the wild being used everyday and it's pulling it's weight. I'm all over that. The Red looks promising, but until it delivers on those promises I'm willing to spend more on something that I KNOW will work.

Cheers.
 
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