Price drop on HVX and all cameras once RED is released?

rgdfilms

rgdfilms

Wet poodle
Do you guys think it will happen? My cheap friend is telling my other cheap friend to wait for the RED release because he thinks the price on the HVX will drop some 20-35% - I told him that they're two different markets... I could see cameras such as the XDCAM coming down a little, but I don't know..
 
Haha. Direct to Market? No.

Second-hand?

Tell your cheap friends to keep an eye on Ebay and Craigslist from October on...

=D
 
I agree that they are totally different markets. Even at the low price for RED there are other things you will need to purchase. I think the HVX will hold its price. I DO believe that the P2 cards will continually drop in price, though.
 
Nope. Red is still gonna cost you above 20k with a lense and recording device. It may well cause a price drop in stuff like the HDX900 but the under 10k crowd probably won't be affected.
 
Jack_Felis said:
Well, if you stick to Nikon still lenses, you can indeed make it under $20,000.
Click to expand...
But how long do you really think it'll be before you "need" the "good glass"?
 
Supply and demand affect pricing. If everyone quit buying HVXs and all bought REDs instead, then yes you can presume it would have an effect on pricing. But if the HVX buyer and the RED buyer are two different customers, and as such won't be impacting each others' sales, then the pricing wouldn't change.

If RED delivers, I do expect the CineAlta and VariCam price to plummet though, or for it to be replaced. Presuming that it delivers all that it says it will, then the other cams will have a hard time commanding their current price levels.
 
Assuming a business structure that places profits as an important criteria, then market competition would only effect a portion of the selling price of a tangible item. The fixed costs (BOM, overhead, marketing, distribution, etc) are not a part of the equation that would change.

Selling price = profit + manufacturing price

therefore

minimum selling price = manufacturing price

If a camera like RED actually reaches the market it will likely have little effect on products priced much lower (other than to slightly reduce the number of items sold), but as others have stated, will place additional price pressure on its price contemporaries.
 
I think that RED price will affect HVX price too.
If it will affect CineAlta and Varicam then it must affect HVX too.
 
Laco said:
I think that RED price will affect HVX price too.
If it will affect CineAlta and Varicam then it must affect HVX too.
Click to expand...

Why?

A Red with a decent recording device and lense is probably going to cost around 20k-25k.

An HVX200 with a FS-100 can be found for around 7k.

They're not in the same price range. They aren't bought by the same groups of people.

If the RED does what it says it does, it'll certainly doom cameras in a similar price range like the SDX900 or HDX900. It'll also mean very bad things for the far more expesive CineAlta and Varicams.
 
DavidBeier said:
Why?

A Red with a decent recording device and lense is probably going to cost around 20k-25k.
Click to expand...

If the body is $17,500... and to be honest I haven't read much about the camera lately... but my guess lets say a Red zoom might go for around $7... now you're at $24,500... plus recording device... can't seem to think of the price talked about at NAB... but I thought someone said it might bring up the camera another $5k (I could be wrong).... plus matte box... follow focus... I figure the camera really costs about $35,000...

So once the camera is out... in a in a year or two it should start driving down the prices of the bigger cameras... but that would be if all the rental houses purchase them for the big boys to use...

Just my .02... nothing against anyone here or anywhere etc...
 
Actually, last time I checked, the RED lens was going for $5,000 or so. Still, there's the option of using still lenses, which I mentioned earlier, so you could just be paying $500 on top of the RED for a lens and an external 100gb hard drive for recording (assuming you have a laptop already, if not, add $2,000 minimum). Still could be under or at $20,000 depending how you handle it.

Also, I too can't wait to see what will happen to cameras above the RED's price, will they go 3D? Beyond 4K? RED copycat cams? Interesting times.
 
Jack_Felis said:
Actually, last time I checked, the RED lens was going for $5,000 or so. Still, there's the option of using still lenses, which I mentioned earlier, so you could just be paying $500 on top of the RED for a lens and an external 100gb hard drive for recording (assuming you have a laptop already, if not, add $2,000 minimum). Still could be under or at $20,000 depending how you handle it.
Click to expand...

A FS-100 costs about 2k. That's only 100 gigs. With RED's 4k resolution you'd need something much bigger and perhaps faster. I imagine it'd be at least 5k. As for the lense, you guys say that still camera lenses will work but, untill we've seen some picks, I can't imagine any film guys willing to stick a $500 lense on a camera capible of 4k resolution. Mattebox and a follow focus are almost a must for a higher range camera but, for the sake of comparing it to the HVX, I won't include them.

The bottom line is that a barebones HVX200 with a standard lense and recording device will run you around 7k. A barebones RED on the other hand looks to ru you at least 28k. That's four times as much. Even if it was somehow only 20k (which simply isn't reasonible as many have pointed out), it's still three times as much. IT'S NOT IN THE SAME PRICE RANGE.

Don't get me wrong. Red looks like it could be a gift from the Gods. I was really excited about it and I even held off buying an HVX200 for a while. But at NAB2006, a few things became clear.

1. RED is still a ways off.
2. Even though it's way cheaper than it should be, it's still in another price range than the HVX.

At the end of the day, I wanted to have my HVX now because I've seen the images from it, it's small, portible, and does what I need a camera to do, and I realized that even when RED would be released, it wouldn't be making my camera obsolete. It would be making the HDX900, Varicam, Viper, and CineAlta obsolete (if it does what it's supposed to do).

We all really have been taking the under 10k cameras for granted to some respect and forget how great a deal they are. The 6k HVX200 can produce an image amazingly close to the 65k Varicam (most can't tell the difference). The 9k XLH1 can apparently produce resolutions close to a 115k CineAlta (or so the Canon guys claim). I'm less impressed with the 6k JVC HD100 but it's still far more impressive and powerful than I would have though possible for a 6k camera back when we were working with the DVX and XL1. The Sony FX1 and Z1's are pieces of crap but nobody's perfect :D

The bottom line is that, the under 10k HD cameras are cool little devices for people who want to do things not only cheaper but smaller. Coppola, Cameron, Soddenberg, and Jackson didn't get these things because they couldn't afford film (come on now). They most likely got an HVX200 because they like this little camera that they can take anywhere and produce an image that is on par with Super 16mm film. That's cool! A RED is something for a bigger production. It may way kill it's professional competitors but it should be clear after NAB that's it's not really going to be in the same range as the "prosumer" cameras.
 
DavidBeier said:
The 6k HVX200 can produce an image amazingly close to the 65k Varicam (most can't tell the difference).
Click to expand...

Those who can't tell the difference are not using a large enough screen to compare them. Try projecting Varicam side by side with HVX footage on an 82" Stewart Filmscreen and the difference is (painfully) obvious.

Joe Murray
 
^
I'm not gonna argue that the HVX200 as good as a Varicam. I just know numerous people who have said that, when using both, they really can't tell much of a difference. I think I recall in the inital shootout Barry or Adam Wilt made the comment that the under 10k cameras looked about half as good as the Varicam or CineAlta. Considering that the Varicam costs 65k and the CineAlta costs 115k, this is still a pretty amazing thing.
 
True, David, but remember, Jim tested the RED with still lenses and if that made Mike at HDForIndies and Jarred excited, then that's a good indication that there's an alternative for those who can just barely afford the RED when it comes out.
 
Hi,

I know it has been said, but I feel I needed to say that the Red and the HVX are not even in the same ballpark and as such, one will not impact the other in any way, price or form.

Best,

Jan
 
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