Worst Virus in History.

[JBurkey]

You want some good/interesting/comical reading, search John Titor. Read some of his "stories" on the internet. Good stuff. It gets you thinking.

I admit I am an avid consumer of doomsday prophecies and information, and trained in wilderness survivial techniques, but... wow. Good read on John Titor. I couldn't get any work done this morning, because I was reading about him. Very, very interesting about the IBM computer bit, and some of his other predictions...

 

[Shaw]

Certainly an interesting, if not amusing, read

 

[MattC]

I would like to point out something. The world is not coming to an end, at least not until the sun explodes (we still have some time)...

However, WE might come to an end. The difference is subtle but important I think. That said, even if millions and millions of us die, we still haven't come to an end. We've survived quite a bit, us humans: plagues, massive wars, ice ages, etc... The planet has survived even more than we have.

Sometimes nature decides that the herd has to be thinned....

 

[Isaac_Brody]

I like your perspective MattC. :beer:

 

[Isaac_Brody]

The plot thickens...

From the New York Times.

October 8, 2005
U.S. Not Ready for Deadly Flu, Bush Plan Shows
By GARDINER HARRIS

WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.

A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says that a large outbreak that began in Asia would, because of modern travel patterns, likely reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."

If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed; riots would engulf vaccination clinics; and even power and food would be in short supply, the plan, obtained by The New York Times, says.

The 381-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that such measures "are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two."

The plan's 10 supplements suggest specific ways that local and state governments, and hospitals and healthcare workers should prepare now for an eventual pandemic by, for instance, drafting legal documents now that would justify quarantining thousands.

The plan outlines a worst-case scenario in which more than 1.9 million Americans would die and 8.5 million would be hospitalized with costs exceeding $450 billion.

It also calls for a domestic vaccine production capacity of 600 million doses within 6 months, more than 10 times the country's present capacity.

On Friday, President Bush asked the leaders of the nation's top six vaccine producers to the White House to cajole them into increasing their domestic vaccine capacity, and the flu plan demonstrates just how monumental a task these companies have before them.

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the Bush Administration's efforts to plan for a possible pandemic flu have become controversial, with many Democrats in Congress charging that the administration has not done enough. Many have pointed to the lengthy writing process of the flu plan as evidence of this. Delays by the Administration have meant that antiviral medications that are an important part of pandemic preparations are now in short supply.

But while the administration's flu plan, officially called the Pandemic Influenza Strategic Plan, closely outlines how the Health and Human Services Department might react during a pandemic, it skirts many essential decisions, such as how the military might be deployed.

"The real shortcoming of the plan is that it doesn't say who's in charge," said a top health official who provided the plan to The New York Times. "We don't want to have a FEMA-like response, where it's not clear who's running what."

The official asked for anonymity because the plan is not supposed to be distributed. The draft provided to The Times is dated Sept. 30, and is stamped "for internal H.H.S. use only." The plan asks government officials to clear it by Oct. 6.

Christina Pearson, a spokeswoman for Health and Human Services Secretary Michael O. Leavitt, responded, "We recognize that the H.H.S. plan will be a foundation for a government-wide plan, and that process has already begun."

Ms. Pearson said that Mr. Leavitt has already had one-on-one meetings with other cabinet secretaries to begin the coordination process across the federal government. But she emphasized that the plan given to The Times is a draft and has not been finalized.

Mr. Leavitt is leaving Saturday for a 10-day trip to at least four Asian nations, where he will meet with health and agriculture officials to discuss planning for a pandemic flu. He said at a briefing Friday that the administration's flu plan would officially be released soon. And he emphasized that the chances of the virus now killing birds in Asia becoming a human pandemic are low. A pandemic is global epidemic of disease.

"It may be a while longer, but pandemic will likely occur in the future," he said.

And he said that the administration's plan is an essential starting point for planning for state and local officials.

"It will require school districts to have a plan on how they will deal with school opening and closing," he said. "It will require the mayor to have a plan on whether or not they're going to ask the theaters not to have a movie."

"Over the next couple of months you will see a great deal of activity asking metropolitan areas, 'Are you ready.' If not, here is what must be done," he said.

A key point of contention if an epidemic strikes is who will get vaccines first. The administration's plan suggests a triage scenario for these essential medicines. Groups like the military, national guard and other national security groups were left out.

Beyond the military, however, the first in line for essential medicines are workers in plants making the vaccines and drugs as well as medical personnel working directly with those sickened by the disease. Next are the elderly and severely ill. Then come pregnant women, transplant and AIDS patients, and parents of infants. Finally, police, firefighters and government leaders are next.

The plan also calls for a national stockpile of 133 million courses of antiviral treatment. Presently the administration has purchased 4.3 million.

The plan details the responsibilities of top health officials in each phase of a spreading pandemic, starting with planning and surveillance efforts and ending with coordination with the department of defense.

Much of the plan is a dry recitation of the science and basic bureaucratic steps that must be followed as a virus races around the globe. But the plan has the feel of a television move-of-the-week when it describes a possible pandemic scenario that begins, "In April of the current year, an outbreak of severe respiratory illness is identified in a small village."

"Twenty patients have required hospitalization at the local provincial hospital, five of whom have died from pneumonia and respiratory failure," the plan states.

The flu spreads and begins to make headlines around the world. Top health officials swing into action and isolate the new viral strain in laboratories. The scientists discover that "the vaccine developed previously for the avian strain will only provide partial protection," the plan states.

In June, federal health officials find airline passengers infected with the virus "arriving in four major U.S. cities," the plan states. By July, small outbreaks are being reported around the nation. It spreads. As the outbreak peaks, about a quarter of workers stay home because they are sick or afraid to become sick.

Hospitals are overwhelmed. "Social unrest occurs," the plan states. "Public anxiety heightens mistrust of government, diminishing compliance with public health advisories." Mortuaries and funeral homes are overwhelmed.

Police, fire and transportation services are limited by personnel shortages, the plan states, and even food and power are in short supply. Pig herds are decimated.

Presently, an avian virus has decimated chicken and other bird flocks in 11 countries. It has infected more than 100 people, about 60 of whom have died, but nearly all of these victims got the disease directly from birds. An epidemic is only possible when a virus begins to pass easily among humans.
The plan details the responsibilities of top health officials in each phase of a spreading pandemic, starting with planning and surveillance efforts and ending with coordination with the department of defense.

Much of the plan is a dry recitation of the science and basic bureaucratic steps that must be followed as a virus races around the globe. But the plan has the feel of a television move-of-the-week when it describes a possible pandemic scenario that begins, "In April of the current year, an outbreak of severe respiratory illness is identified in a small village."

"Twenty patients have required hospitalization at the local provincial hospital, five of whom have died from pneumonia and respiratory failure," the plan states.

The flu spreads and begins to make headlines around the world. Top health officials swing into action and isolate the new viral strain in laboratories. The scientists discover that "the vaccine developed previously for the avian strain will only provide partial protection," the plan states.

In June, federal health officials find airline passengers infected with the virus "arriving in four major U.S. cities," the plan states. By July, small outbreaks are being reported around the nation. It spreads. As the outbreak peaks, about a quarter of workers stay home because they are sick or afraid to become sick.

Hospitals are overwhelmed. "Social unrest occurs," the plan states. "Public anxiety heightens mistrust of government, diminishing compliance with public health advisories." Mortuaries and funeral homes are overwhelmed.

Police, fire and transportation services are limited by personnel shortages, the plan states, and even food and power are in short supply. Pig herds are decimated.

Presently, an avian virus has decimated chicken and other bird flocks in 11 countries. It has infected more than 100 people, about 60 of whom have died, but nearly all of these victims got the disease directly from birds. An epidemic is only possible when a virus begins to pass easily among humans.



Lawrence K. Altman contributed reporting for this article.

 

[surf]

I would like to point out something. The world is not coming to an end, at least not until the sun explodes (we still have some time)...

well. the Sun is in his meddle ages.

 

[GenJerDan]

Viral diseases can be prevented...if you have the innoculation...which you won't have unless you have the virus available.

A "pandemic" thingie...not as likely these days, despite the ease of spread with airlines & such. The Spanish Flu killed gazillions of people because it was 1918, for pity's sake. We know how to reduce fevers, prevent dehydration, etc. these days, and can more easily reach the people who need the treatment. Don't have to get Ol' Doc Smith out to the boonies in the horse & buggy.

How about a little Bubonic Plague? Sound scary?

"Here's your penicillin shot. Move along. Next!"

Like the Antrax scare a few years ago. Yawn. Difficult to get. Difficult to spread. Of course, that's all our fault because we bathe regularly.

Matter of fact, a lot of the scary diseases of the past are no hoo-hoo because our personal hygiene approaches ridiculousness. (Well, maybe not everywhere. Been on a bus in Germany in the Summer? Whew! )

Me? I lived on Ft Detrick for 18 months. USAMRIID is such a fun place. We'd go out in wee hours of the morning for a daily run. The smell of burning monkeys is not very pleasant before breakfast. Or jogging around the pens with all the pretty horses...which have been injected with who-knows-what... :grin:

But I never volunteered for the experiments, even though it meant having 6 months off from regular duties. Just go in once in a while, get a shot of...something...then stop in regularly so the docs can check you out, make sure you haven't grown any extra appendages, and the ones you already had still worked and were the proper color. :evil: