The High-Def DVD future

B

Barry_Green

Moderator
One big question mark we all face is: how do we distribute our high-def content to the end user? Amid some predictions I've read on other boards (such as "DVD will be extinct in a year"), Kagan Research is a media research firm, and they have done a study on where they believe home video revenues and formats are headed. According to them:

In 2006, the standard-def DVD market will account for $16.8 billion of the $16.9 billion pie.

By 2009 high-def DVD will begin to make its move, accounting for $2.6 billion of the market.

By 2015 high-def DVDs will be the major market share with $18.3 billion in revenue.

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/?epi_menuItemID=989a6827590d7dda9cdf6023a0908a0c&epi_menuID=c791260db682611740b28e347a808a0c&epi_baseMenuID=384979e8cc48c441ef0130f5c6908a0c&ndmViewId=news_view&newsLang=en&div=564050909&newsId=20061009005800
 
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so we all won't be buying movies through download by then?

I thought physical media was soon to go by the wayside...
 
There is still a couple of setbacks for HD.

2 formats. Most buyers will not invest a lot of money in something that could be the new Beta.

How much better is it gonna be for the avarage viewer? If you watch something on a 100inch TV of course resolution counts.

But on a 32inch TV the diference is not that obvious.


If HD gonna come in strong, I think it will happen in 2 ways.

1. Its gonna create a hype, so everyone gonna go in to HD.

2. They release tripple layer HD-DVD were one or two layer is HD-DVD and one or two layer is ordinary DVDs. Then people buy a lot of HD-DVDs and in a couple of years they decide to change there DVD players for cheap HD-DVD players.
 
Weston said:
so we all won't be buying movies through download by then?

I thought physical media was soon to go by the wayside...
Click to expand...


I think they shouldnt stop selling physical mediums for movies.

Not everyone likes the idea of having to watch their movies on their computers. I know I would for one because the couch is always nicer than a chair. Plus...you cant bring it with you everywhere you go. But then people would say..well you got hard drives that are cheap and portable. But its still not the same unpacking your movie and putting in the disc tray.
I hope they dont decide to stop with physical discs..that would be a real bummer..
 
blckhawk542 said:
I think they shouldnt stop selling physical mediums for movies.

Not everyone likes the idea of having to watch their movies on their computers. I know I would for one because the couch is always nicer than a chair. Plus...you cant bring it with you everywhere you go. But then people would say..well you got hard drives that are cheap and portable. But its still not the same unpacking your movie and putting in the disc tray.
I hope they dont decide to stop with physical discs..that would be a real bummer..
Click to expand...

I agree with you that I wouldnt like for them to stop selling physical media...dvds and what not. For me its mostly the nerd value...of being able to buy a nicely packaged dvd set...with nerd memorbilia collectible stuff.

If it was to go toward all download...which I think it eventually will I dont think that means just having to do it through your computer. The direction its heading is to have one media center type thing with all your internet, movie, music, and gaming needs in one. From there you could sit from your more comfortable couch in your living room and flick through an online store and buy any movie....ever....and have it saved on your media center.

George Lucas was talking about it. He seemed to think the whole cd/dvd thing wasnt going to last much longer. But...hes kind of a delusioned old man sometimes...so he could be wrong.

Still....within 10 to 20 years I dont see how DVDs could still be around. Apple movie downloadng just started...I dont see how others won't be far behind. As far as convenience.....downloading from your all in one media jobby in your living room sounds like a nice idea. Though I'd dearly miss all the cool collectible dvd packaging and whatnot.
 
YIKES!

I was hoping we could finally get away from spinning disks that are far to scratch sensitive.
The move to solid-state will take a little longer then...what a shame.
 
A great predictor of future trends in consumer formats can be found by looking at disc capacity on a world wide basis. The capital investment to setup up a new line is considerable and the replicators base their major capital expenditures upon strong indicators form their customer base (content providers).

Of our authoring customers, only a very small percentage are yet even considering hi def content. Most are worried by the consumer confusion that has arisen out of the competing formats. These highly political battles seem to serve no purpose other than to delay the progress that might have otherwise begun.

One of the best publications that I read on this subject is Replication News:

http://www.medialinenews.com/
 
Weston said:
so we all won't be buying movies through download by then?

I thought physical media was soon to go by the wayside...
Click to expand...

How long did it take you to download the (relatively) small files for the horror fest?

See anyone laying highspeed cable/fiber in your neighborhood lately? Launching new satellites?

Me, either.

Now imagine 10 million people wanting to download the latest release at the same time.
 
Weston said:
so we all won't be buying movies through download by then?

I thought physical media was soon to go by the wayside...
Click to expand...

I for one will never buy a movie online via a download service as long as it comes loaded with DRM. I'd gladly pay twice as much for a hard copy DVD disc that I know will work for the rest of my life (or at least as long as I own a functional DVD player, anyway).
 
TwistedLincoln said:
...that I know will work for the rest of my life (or at least as long as I own a functional DVD player, anyway).
Click to expand...

...or you scratch it.

(signed: not a DVD fan)
:)
 
GenJerDan said:
How long did it take you to download the (relatively) small files for the horror fest?

See anyone laying highspeed cable/fiber in your neighborhood lately? Launching new satellites?

Me, either.

Now imagine 10 million people wanting to download the latest release at the same time.
Click to expand...

Ten years is an awfully long time for technology. I doubt stuff like that will be a problem at that point. To think that DVDs will still be the dominant format 15 to 20 years from now sounds wierd to me.
 
vidled said:
...or you scratch it.

(signed: not a DVD fan)
:)
Click to expand...

Just be more careful with your DVDs...its not that hard to maintain them...you finish watching...leave it in the player or back in the case..no hangin out for the dust to get to it.
 
Weston said:
Ten years is an awfully long time for technology. I doubt stuff like that will be a problem at that point. To think that DVDs will still be the dominant format 15 to 20 years from now sounds wierd to me.
Click to expand...

It's not about the technology, it's about money. Most of the existing stuff can't handle higher datarates/higher bandwidth, and would have to be replaced.

I doubt anyone will do it just for movies.

They should, however, replace with "better" as it becomes necessary because of normal wear-and-tear. That'll take a longass time, though.

Now, whether or not it's a plastic disk is up for grabs. But it's still more likely to be a physical medium than an ephemeral download.

(Maybe a system where you take your media to a store and load it up with what you want to rent/buy. That, I could see.)
 
yeah I agree that a different form of solid state media would be better. Like i said I would miss the geek packaging that comes with all my favorite movies. The whole downloading future was something George Lucas brought up in some interview awhile ago..he seemed to think that was the definate future....but he could be wrong.

But there could be a ton of different ways to sell movies using a physical medium other than dvds.
 
GenJerDan said:
See anyone laying highspeed cable/fiber in your neighborhood lately? Launching new satellites?
Click to expand...
I have fiber to my home.

That's not the only piece of the puzzle, of course, but it may not be long before enough homes have that kind of connectivity to make the economics of internet distribution work.

I agree with the anti-DRM sentiments, but as a substitute for renting movies I wouldn't mind downloading. Of course, there would have to be a way for me to watch the movie on my projector rather than on my computer.
 
iain.bason said:
That's not the only piece of the puzzle, of course, but it may not be long before enough homes have that kind of connectivity to make the economics of internet distribution work.
Click to expand...

A coworker is still on 56K dialup. "Oh, your area will get DSL....maybe next year."

(Just so there's no misunderstanding. He lives in a section of a city with a population of a little over 100,000. Not a matter of stringing wire out into the boonies.)
 
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MovieSwede said:
There is still a couple of setbacks for HD.

2 formats. Most buyers will not invest a lot of money in something that could be the new Beta.

How much better is it gonna be for the avarage viewer? If you watch something on a 100inch TV of course resolution counts.

But on a 32inch TV the diference is not that obvious.


If HD gonna come in strong, I think it will happen in 2 ways.

1. Its gonna create a hype, so everyone gonna go in to HD.

2. They release tripple layer HD-DVD were one or two layer is HD-DVD and one or two layer is ordinary DVDs. Then people buy a lot of HD-DVDs and in a couple of years they decide to change there DVD players for cheap HD-DVD players.
Click to expand...

#2 is a sweet idea........
 
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