profit potential of an indie feature?

[Randall_Oelerich]

Have not made an indie yet. So yes I am attempting to find out the risk and reward (financial and non-financial) BEFORE committing $100k (no small chunk of change, at least for me). If everyone looks at my OP, I did qualify my question with an assumption that the film would have good acting (not the crap arse acting often seen in $25k or even many $100k cheap horror indies), good cinematography, and most importantly a great story (as judged by unbiased highly rated consultants, etc); the final product should look like a big budget film, etc. So yeah, just trying to get some feedback, lessons learned from those that have gone down the path or already researched it. And in the meantime learning screenwriting and making shorts.

So back to the OP. Can this hypothetical film make at least $100k in the pocket?...No offense, but isn't that something you should find out BEFORE committing that kind of money? Maybe you are, but I was under the impression that you already made the movie.

 

[Ted Spencer]

- story, lighting, art direction, casting, performance, costume, makeup, score, foley, mix, editing, etc.

Jeez...you mean I gotta learn *all those things too*? What are you, nuts? I got a RED!!!

j/k...

Yep...'fraid it's everywhere in our 'democratized' media production world: get [insert buzzword product here] and you can make a great [insert medium here]. Movies, music...it's lke an ideological communicable disease.

It's almost funny sometimes when the simple fact that a type of product (like 1/3" camcorders) has a specific limitation (long DOF) begets an entire 'holy grail' mentality around the solution to said 'problem' (35mm adapters/lenses). Suddenly, in the fertile young minds of all too many, that becomes not only the sine-qua-non, but the very ticket itself (to cinematic greatness).

Please...

 

[Mark Harris]

Have not made an indie yet. So yes I am attempting to find out the risk and reward (financial and non-financial) BEFORE committing $100k (no small chunk of change, at least for me). If everyone looks at my OP, I did qualify my question with an assumption that the film would have good acting (not the crap arse acting often seen in $25k or even many $100k cheap horror indies), good cinematography, and most importantly a great story (as judged by unbiased highly rated consultants, etc); the final product should look like a big budget film, etc. So yeah, just trying to get some feedback, lessons learned from those that have gone down the path or already researched it. And in the meantime learning screenwriting and making shorts.

This is really a question you cannot answer with a post like this. Because the answer is nobody knows. You're really going to need to spend a lot of time researching to answer this.

I am developing a feature now. We worked on the story for about a year. Now, we have been working on figuring out where the audience is, sales strategy etc for about 6 months. That's research on sites like Stacy's(and honestly, if you're not willing to put out a couple of bucks on something like her site, you just are not very serious about the whole thing and would be better off just saving your money, or putting it into something that can actually make money, like land mines or something.)

But the only answer is going to be from you doing a lot of research and figuring out an approach that will maximize your chances.

One thing we are dead-set on though, is making it with money you do not have to pay back, and with money you can afford to lose, or at least lose for a while. Those are the real mantras we have, because whatever happens, you're looking at a journey of a few years here.

No one is going to pop up and buy your film for lots of money at Sundance. No one. That will never ever ever ever ever happen. So you need to rid yourself of any such fantasy right now. NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER HAPPEN.

So make it for as little as possible and make it with money you do not have to pay back and be ready for the long haul.

M

 

[Ted Spencer]

Well...it does happen ("Paranormal Activity")...but it also happens that people win the Powerball, sink basketballs thrown behind them at 150', find garbage bags with $500K cash in them, etc...

But that'll never happen to me. Or you. Or anyone either of us has ever met...

 

[Randall_Oelerich]

Hey! Speak for yourself! I found $20 in one of my old coats just the other day, a sign that I am going to make a fortune on an indie! LOL.

Well...it does happen ("Paranormal Activity")...but it also happens that people win the Powerball, sink basketballs thrown behind them at 150', find garbage bags with $500K cash in them, etc... But that'll never happen to me. Or you. Or anyone either of us has ever met...

 

[Randall_Oelerich]

I could and would be willing to lay down $50k in a few years to make a $50k ultra-low budget indie, *if* the story was great (hence my emphasis right now on learning the craft of story). If I lost it all, it would be an adventure that money can not buy; er, uh, wait a minute, I guess money can buy that life adventure, for a mere $50k. Seriously, I would risk that, even if I lost it all.

 

[Mark Harris]

Well...it does happen ("Paranormal Activity")...but it also happens that people win the Powerball, sink basketballs thrown behind them at 150', find garbage bags with $500K cash in them, etc...

But that'll never happen to me. Or you. Or anyone either of us has ever met...

Well, the point is that you cannot make a business plan on that basis. And you have to proceed as if it will never ever ever happen. If you count on it, it's bad bad business.

 

[Mark Harris]

I could and would be willing to lay down $50k in a few years to make a $50k ultra-low budget indie, *if* the story was great (hence my emphasis right now on learning the craft of story). If I lost it all, it would be an adventure that money can not buy; er, uh, wait a minute, I guess money can buy that life adventure, for a mere $50k. Seriously, I would risk that, even if I lost it all.

Well if that's the case, then you can spend the time from now until then researching so you are ready.

 

[Chamber005]

Well if that's the case, then you can spend the time from now until then researching so you are ready.

Yeah, now I'm all confused by this thread. I thought the person already had the 100K and was just looking to see if it would be profitable...

Or maybe I'm confusing it with the guy who said 25k is toilet paper to him...

Anyway, if you're doing any of what you're doing to make MONEY, chances are you'll fail miserably in the arts.

If you want to make money, go get into high finance. You don't need to "know" anyone to strike it rich, you don't need much talent and you can get the same hookers in Vegas that Tiger Woods gets except that the bad press won't matter to you.

But seriously, most people who are artists commit their entire LIVES to LIVING as artists. Some of them end up making a bunch of money randomly, some end up working in video stores their whole lives or even living on the street. Obviously if you have friends in marketing or are strong in marketing yourself you'll have a better chance of being the former. But we're talking about YOUR ENTIRE LIFE. That means you will live and you will die having lived for something that gives potentially NOTHING back to you except for its own existence. Whereas most people live for friends, family, experiences and collecting STUFF, the artist lives a lot of his/her life in pursuit of something ethereal...which is wholly depressing to anyone who is not the artist. That's the reality of being an artist, any kind of artist. It's not profits and margins, it's sacrifice and commitment. There's millions of people who would like to be professional baseball players, basketball players, football players -- you can multiply that number by 10 when you're talking about the arts. Thus you can multiply by 10 the level of COMMITMENT an artist must have in order to become "professional".

If money is even a 5th of your REASON for moving forward on an artistic venture then you will absolutely, undoubtedly fail miserably as will your attempt at creating anything that matters in any regard to anyone.

Epic fail.

Just sayin'

:nads:

 

[Ted Spencer]

Well, the point is that you cannot make a business plan on that basis. And you have to proceed as if it will never ever ever happen. If you count on it, it's bad bad business.

Agreed, 100%. But you also need to keep your dreams alive in a life as an artist. If you ever let them die, you will probably not be able to continue as such.

Balance, as they say, in all things...

And hard to believe though it may be for some (and of course I don't mean you, JDS), it's possible to live the life of an artist and still have that. I've been doing it for [an almost embarrassingly large number of] years...

 

[mainstreetprod]

What do you guys think about doing an ultra ultra low budget horror film for like $25,000 with no-name actors and good equipment? I mean it's low risk anyway, $25K is not much to me, if I lost it I would shrug it off basically as annoying but no biggie. Let's say you have the equipment like lighting equipment, camera package, editing you're going to do yourself and maybe hire a finishing editor to do this or that, and you got the location for free, small crew for cheap... what would you guys say?

My dad's house is 20,000 sq. feet, he just added this amazing pond, the fog rolls in during the winter and it's flat-out creepy. It's old style architecture and every time I think about this house I can't help but think it'd be great for some horror film. But reality is I can't find a really great story idea




You'd have to really think out of the box- but, what if the amazing pond had it's own little loch ness monster yanking anyone who dares put a toe in to the depths? Make the house a sorority house and there's your blockbuster!!

 

[Tim Joy]

No one is going to pop up and buy your film for lots of money at Sundance. No one. That will never ever ever ever ever happen. So you need to rid yourself of any such fantasy right now. NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER HAPPEN.

Even if it's a mind-blowingly awesome film* that nobody has ever seen anything like before, but yet it is still accessible and enjoyable to a wide audience?


* with a few name actors, of course.

 

[Barry_Green]

No one is going to pop up and buy your film for lots of money at Sundance. No one. That will never ever ever ever ever happen. So you need to rid yourself of any such fantasy right now. NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER HAPPEN.

Film is an always fascinating discussion, because filmmakers seem to always think they're the exception to the rule. As soon as they find out there are rules, they want to break them. If 99,999 filmmakers make an indie film and fail to sell it for a million dollars at Sundance, they'll always, without exception, point to "Blair Witch" being bought for a million dollars at Sundance (even though that was over a decade ago) or "Paranormal Activity." In the face of overwhelming evidence, their determined spirits will overlook it all, and instead focus on the occasional needle that gets found in the haystack. It reminds me very much of this scene:

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I AGREE

You have to admire the determination and the faith it takes to persevere. But there's a gulf of difference between having faith in yourself, and in being delusional. I think Mark Harris is trying to wake up folks from the "I'm the exception" delusion that too many folks fall into.

He's not being mean, he's ... well, actually, I can't speak for Mark, but I know that when I've said the same things, I'm certainly not being mean, I'm trying to make sure that folks don't get in over their heads, get themselves way into debt, and then find out that "oh yeah, the reason it's a rule is because it applies to everyone." The exceptions to the rule are very few, very far between.

If you're spending money you don't have, going into debt, racking up credit card debt and you don't have a track record and you haven't ever done this before, and your whole plan is that some distributor is going to be so blown away by how totally awesome your film is that he'll buy it from you with a big cash advance... that's just plain delusional.

There were 9800 submissions to Sundance this year. How many times do you hear of an indie film being bought at Sundance for big bucks? Once every five years or so? Those stats right there would mean that the odds against you are, what, 50,000 to 1?

So don't go thinking that your film is going to be a big breakout hit at Sundance. It might be, but you have about equal odds of hitting the lottery, and lottery tickets are a lot easier to buy than a film is to make, and they cost a lot less too.

There are ways to make some money with film. Counting on the big cash advance and Sundance deal is probably the most unrealistic option.

If you're spending your own money to make a film, and your distribution plan is "we'll show it at festivals" -- that's not a realistic approach and you will probably be one of the 49,999 who don't make it.

 

[ChipG]

Your video won't play.

 

[Luis Caffesse]

Plays fine for me

 

[ChipG]

Ok, there it goes. Ha ha ha, yea, that is one of my favorite movies I also like it when they buy the Lamborhini with an IOU for $252K and say they are good for it. Kinda like making a movie on credit cards

 

[gi-jones]

If you're spending your own money to make a film, and your distribution plan is "we'll show it at festivals" -- that's not a realistic approach and you will probably be one of the 49,999 who don't make it.

So, why don't we talk a little about what the realistic approach might be, as this was originally what the thread was about. Instead of discussing the few needles, that made it out the haystack, I would love to hear some examples of people who actually had a good plan and made their money back. Anyone?

 

[JonathanLB]

So, why don't we talk a little about what the realistic approach might be, as this was originally what the thread was about. Instead of discussing the few needles, that made it out the haystack, I would love to hear some examples of people who actually had a good plan and made their money back. Anyone?

I think he's talking about the fact that very few will be BIG hits sold for a ton of money (though I don't consider $1M a ton of money, I consider that idiots without a good lawyer to negotiate a share of the future profits, so even the biggest hits are usually not that great of success stories in the sense there are a lot of people who think $1M is a lot of money, which it isn't). I don't think he's talking about 1 in 50,000 makes their money back.

If so, we obviously have different experiences, as everyone I know who has done this before has either made their money back, come very close, or made a profit. That sample size is only about 15 features, but people I know who work in the indie film industry are shooting films for $100K to $200K and making their money back no problem. I've said it before and I'll say it again -- there's clearly a contrast between the DVX User forum where apparently everyone believes the odds of making your money back are 1 in a million and the real world where people I know in person are doing this regularly. So I'm really not sure what's up with that. My guess is the reality lies somewhere in between and that probably MOST films do not make their money back, but that a lot of good indie films with pro results do.

Until I do it myself, though, I won't really know how tough that is. To be fair Barry is just trying to protect people from making stupid moves. It's not smart to risk money you don't have on what is frankly a pretty bad business plan. If you have the money, though, and you can make a great film, I say give it a shot because "fortune favors the bold." If your solution to making it in Hollywood is sitting around on a forum complaining about how it's impossible to make it and indie features never make money, well, I think my plan is still about 100 times better than yours

 

[Tim Joy]

Jonathan-

How many of those 15 features you're talking about were the directors' first features? I suspect not many, if any. And how many were sold because a distributor came up to them at a festival and said, "I'll buy it"?
I think it's a big difference for somebody with a track record and a relationship with a distributor to sell a film than it is for a nooB, which many here are, including me, (and you too, apparently?).

I also think that the myriad opportunities and avenues of selling a film need to be cultured long before that festival screening, to just get a shot at that 1 in a million chance. (More realistically- to sell the film at ALL)

I agree with you, Barry that it is delusional to rely on entering Sundance with expectations of winning the lottery. I would like to know how it happened for Paranormal Activity, because I seriously doubt they simply submitted their film and waited for the offers to come rolling in. I'm guessing they had the indie-PR machine going at it from all angles. ??

 

[Mickey Munday]

I mean it's low risk anyway, $25K is not much to me, if I lost it I would shrug it off basically as annoying but no biggie.

I think he's talking about the fact that very few will be BIG hits sold for a ton of money (though I don't consider $1M a ton of money, I consider that idiots without a good lawyer to negotiate a share of the future profits, so even the biggest hits are usually not that great of success stories in the sense there are a lot of people who think $1M is a lot of money, which it isn't). I don't think he's talking about 1 in 50,000 makes their money back.

If so, we obviously have different experiences, as everyone I know who has done this before has either made their money back, come very close, or made a profit. That sample size is only about 15 features, but people I know who work in the indie film industry are shooting films for $100K to $200K and making their money back no problem. I've said it before and I'll say it again -- there's clearly a contrast between the DVX User forum where apparently everyone believes the odds of making your money back are 1 in a million and the real world where people I know in person are doing this regularly. So I'm really not sure what's up with that.

i don't get it....if you know so many people who make profit from indie film making (apparently in the real world) and that people on the dvxuser forum apparently believe that when making a profit the chances are 1 and a million - why are you asking hypothetical questions here versus the people you claim are actually out doing these shoots and making bank?