Pandemics, Coffee Shops, and Writing

Randall_Oelerich said:
Hmm. News release today hints that World Health Organization may raise their alert level soon to level 5, which implies "imminent pandemic".
http://uk.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUKLS541961
I think I will buy a couple more cases of water and a bit more canned food. I picked up about a hundred N95 masks. Just prudent precautions, and it can all be stored for a decade in the basement no problem. The extra bottled water I can use for on set shooting if this thing fizzles out. The number of cases in the news seems small, but this is exactly how the 1918 pandemic started out; epidemics start out with small numbers of cases, the pandemic does not really 'take off' for about 30-40 days.
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Dude . . . seriously. You are waaaaaaaay overreacting.
 
They reduced it to "only" 7 dead mexicans now.
The rest had nothing to do with swine flu.

There are several reasons to invest in canned food and guns therse days, but the flu is not one of them.

Frank
 
mcgeedigital said:
36k people die from the regular flu EACH YEAR.

Until we surpass that level this is NOTHING.
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This is not a regular influenza virus, this is far different from the regular flu virus that circulates each year. That is why the World Health Organization is so concerned. This new virus has a very deadly pandemic potential far far beyond the normal flu virus. If you wait until 36k people die from this new virus before taking it seriously it will be too late.

Swine Flu Pandemic Declared Imminent as World Alert Raised
By Tom Randall
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization warned the first influenza pandemic since 1968 is “imminent” and urged stepped-up preparations after swine flu was confirmed in at least nine countries and 11 U.S. states. WHO raised the level of its six-tier alert system to 5, indicating little time remains for countries to complete emergency plans....
 
Postmaster said:
They reduced it to "only" 7 dead mexicans now.
The rest had nothing to do with swine flu.
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Going by those confirmed figures off the who.org site, 7 dead out of 26 confirmed cases in Mexico would be a mortality rate of over 20%, which actually is very scary if true. Granted those are "confirmed" cases which can be artificially low since they only represent cases that had 'official' lab samples sent to the CDC.gov or WHO.org The numbers are not large enough a sample to draw any huge statistically significant conclusions.

I think I am done preaching the dangers of this new H1N1 virus here, probably to the glee of some. Unless people (dare I say "sheep"?) have knowledge of why this new virus has an incredible potential to become quite dangerous (such as new viruses very commonly developing antigenic shifts, and doing so rapidly) and cause untold millions of deaths, I think there just is no common ground for discussion. I am dropping the discussion on my end. Back to writing screenplays!
~randall
 
That's a *20%* mortality rate in Mexico. If you look around the world, people aren't dying. They are getting sick and getting better. Same with H5N1 (Avian Flu) - the world bunkered down, and nothing happened.

I mean, it's not to say that a mixing of strains could occur, especially is H5N1 continues to make its appearance in humans. But it's unlikely. But to play to your debate randall, H2N2 (asian flu) had two waves. One with a very high attack rate (many infected) but a low mortality rate. The second wave of the strain was 10 times as lethal.

I really wouldn't worry about it. There have been reported cases in counties around my home, but I'm not too concerned. When people start dropping like flies, then I will be concerned. But as you said, it would be too late. Even if (and they are) the CDC does all they can - PS. CDC is the guys who do most of the testing. The WHO is only a political body.

It won't be enough. It takes months to manufacture vaccines once the substrate is identified. The current vaccine is not effective since it wasn't build around H1N1. So if this does have a huge attack rate and a huge mortality rate - we are all dead anyways.

That's what sucks about diseases. You can predict them and when we see there is a problem - it is too late. I had to do a ton of research on H5N1 back in the day. That and other influenza strains...but statistically speaking - you aren't going to die.

PS. Humans have a basic immunity to H1N1. H5N1, we do not. So if Avian Flu was doing what Swine Flu is now, then there would be cause for alarm.
 
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David Jimerson said:
Dude . . . seriously. You are waaaaaaaay overreacting.
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David it might turn out you are correct. I found this article today on the web, hinting at why our winter flu vaccinations (I got one) might provide some protection against infection or severity of illness for swine flu / H1N1. Could explain why this has been more severe in Mexico, less so in the USA. Why swine could turn out to be moreso an inconvenient flu, put down for the final count in 6 months when we are all vaccinated for it.
http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2009/428/1?rss=1
 
I just got over the worst strain of flu I have ever had over the last 4 days. My body became so dehydrated I felt like offing myself. My fever was so high it temporally damaged the pupils in my eyes.
 
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