Panasonic 4K at NAB?

[Kholi]

At the moment - unfortunately, no. There isn't a viable 4K acquisition platform less than $15K. I mean, there's the JVC handycam, but I don't know if that 4-stream solution is really viable. Makes me a bit nervous, at least. Bayer interpolation needs to use a lot of power, and the more pixels, the more processing, right?

Maybe a C300 type sensor that doesn't need to interpolate for 4K would do it, then record raw data via an on-board media ala Ikonoskop DII. But even still, you've got to do some processing in cam if you want to have HD-SDI or 3G-SDI out. It all adds up. The more data, the more work that has to be done, and the more expensive the solution is going to be.

In technology, I think more equals more in a lot of cases - at least right now.

I mean more like RED less like FS. But RED stll uses bayer, just alot of the real heavy lifting for processing is in post.

Right one the price isn't there, that doesn't mean it's more expensive though, just that the marketing tool is strong enough to charge more for it.

I am curious though. Wonder if someone like Barry could comment on that idea.

(disclaimer: this is just me theory, not fact. Which is why I want someone with more tech based knowledge to chime in)

 

[Kholi]

Thinking about it, cheaper wasn't the right word. It should be the same cost as something like scarlet.

Which would be the fs700 with whatever solution Sony drops. Or the same price as the current c300. In that range.

Unless panasonic has something else up their sleeves, which is what this threads speculation has already created seven pages on. xD

 

[Emanuel]

Portugal is not rule but neither B side !

Portugal is not rule but neither B side !

[...] it will be streamed via optic fibre, not broadcast. (even in Portugal, we can now get 200MB connections) [...]

Even in...?!!

Well, Jay, my friend : ) in just a few countries (e.g. scandinavia) other than Portugal you'll have people speaking your own native language as 2nd/foreign language so spread allover especially among young people. In Germany where I lived for 8 months and a half, people thought I was brit (!) and out of major big towns as for instance Hamburg (but not Munich!), nobody was able to speak the language of Queen Elizabeth as same as in my born land. Portugal has much wider internet access (and computer ratio per inhabitant) than countries like Italy where I've lived for example.

Well, you live in a sort of luso-brit paradise called Algarve, so you must know it!



http://www.google.com/search?q=untr....,cf.osb&fp=cd6cee318f6a5de9&biw=1366&bih=638

 

[roxics]

Paradigm shifts don't happen with spec bumps. Look at the evidence throughout history.

VHS to DVD
Gamepad to Wii remote
Qwerty Smartphone to iPhone
CRT to Plasma/LCD
3CCD to Single large sensor
Gas to Electric cars
Film to Digital

All of these represent a paradigm shift. They weren't just spec bumps, they did something fundamentally different. 2K to 4K is a spec bump.

We got lucky that HD was ushered in with plasma/LCD TVs and a switch to digital broadcasting. Like a perfect storm of multiple technologies coming all at once. Otherwise I'm not sure we would have the HD penetration we have today. A lot of people didn't buy HD flat panels because they were HD, they bought them because they were flat panels. HD was a bonus.

The next paradigm shift is not going to be 4K. If content creators like us are already arguing that people can't tell the difference between 2K and 4K, what is the average Joe going to see? Hell we argue about moire and aliasing in the brick pattern of a wall in the far background. The average viewer will never notice it.

The next paradigm shift in cinema will come with augmented reality eyewear. So if you want to future proof your films now, shoot them in 3D. Because 15 years from now people aren't going to carry cell phones, those will be replaced with AR glasses. Which means 3D will be super easy, portable and everywhere.

 

[adkimery]

All of these represent a paradigm shift. They weren't just spec bumps, they did something fundamentally different. 2K to 4K is a spec bump.

Is anyone in this thread arguing that it is a paradigm shift? I don't think the move to 4k is going to happen because everyone and their brother is clamoring for it. I think the move to 4k is going to happen because consumer electronics companies are going to convince the masses that 4k is the greatest thing since sliced bread while at the same time slowly phasing out HD products. It's going to happen because companies need newer, 'better' products to sell. 3D has too many technological hurdles right now so they are throwing 4k against the wall to see if it sticks.

 

[Noel Evans]

I can tell you straight up Australia will not be going to 4k broadcast for at min. 10-15 years. The networks arent that big here, well big enough - but they arent about to shell for another upgrade anytime soon (echoing what Barry said - but Aus specific). 4K projectors in theatres? Sure. No doubt they'll be the norm in about 5 years - but they are still a projection system i.e. that doesnt mean the image needs to be acquired or even projected at 4k. Projection is essentially reflecting light through a lens onto a surface - naturally whatever is in the air between the screen and the projector will soften the image. Thats one of the reasons I still love the cinema.

We are however rolling out a national broadband network based on fibre optic cable - which should be fully rolled out in around 5 years. This offers a 4k possibility if that can come through direct to your TV. People want a box that channels up and down and no need to screw around however - and as someone else mentioned if you need to buffer etc or wait then its dead in the water. I do see a possibility for the games market to move to 4k before mainstream TV.

Now back to Panasonic and pure speculation - S35 sensor / AVC Ultra @ 1080 4:4:4 log recording - about $15k RRP. My prediction... but when? Thatd be a nice camera though.

 

[Jay Birch]

Even in...?!!

Yep, sounds like Portugal is actually far forward in internet tech... Although my father in law has 100MB fibre optic in UK too.

Someone further back mentioned bandwidth costs... again, that is becoming much cheaper and spread on the cloud. Once you strip away costs for producing DVDs, distribution, % for store sales etc... I can't see the server price would be unattainable. Finding uncapped usage on the consumer side might be different, but the 200MB packages I have been looking at are completely unthrottled.

Anyway, just a thought.

 

[Zephyrnoid]

At the moment - unfortunately, no. There isn't a viable 4K acquisition platform less than $15K. I mean, there's the JVC handycam, but I don't know if that 4-stream solution is really viable. Makes me a bit nervous, at least. Bayer interpolation needs to use a lot of power, and the more pixels, the more processing, right?

Maybe a C300 type sensor that doesn't need to interpolate for 4K would do it, then record raw data via an on-board media ala Ikonoskop DII. But even still, you've got to do some processing in cam if you want to have HD-SDI or 3G-SDI out. It all adds up. The more data, the more work that has to be done, and the more expensive the solution is going to be.

In technology, I think more equals more in a lot of cases - at least right now.

Very eloquently put, if i may say so.
"you've got to do some processing in cam if you want to have HD-SDI or 3G-SDI out"
suggests that there is no interface fast/wide enough to transfer 4k. Is that what you are saying?

 

[Zephyrnoid]

Is anyone in this thread arguing that it is a paradigm shift? I don't think the move to 4k is going to happen because everyone and their brother is clamoring for it. I think the move to 4k is going to happen because consumer electronics companies are going to convince the masses that 4k is the greatest thing since sliced bread while at the same time slowly phasing out HD products. It's going to happen because companies need newer, 'better' products to sell. 3D has too many technological hurdles right now so they are throwing 4k against the wall to see if it sticks.

A very astute line of logic and fine observations.The sad part is that said "consumer electronics companies" are really pushing too hard too fast at the wrong time for US economically.
I would say, ignore the incessant spec bumps and focus on the key delivery platforms. Way too much emphasis is being put on theater projection as it is. I just got numbers back from Gartner and theater attendance is on a logarithmically falling slope. TV is still king but that's a shaky platform to hang your hat on unless all you want to deliver is sports and news. When I retire and become and old sedentary man, I'll be using a tablet not a TV.
So, I really think if you work the math backwards from Tablet Domination of the market, that should tell you that 1080p is the best bet as a ubiquitous format for the next 5 years and then probably 4K starting in 2017 onwards.
Having grown up in multimedia during the tech bubble, I learned that the stakeholders tend to exaggerate the future in a big way.
The smart money is on holding back a bit.

 

[Steve Castle]

Yep, sounds like Portugal is actually far forward in internet tech... Although my father in law has 100MB fibre optic in UK too.

Someone further back mentioned bandwidth costs... again, that is becoming much cheaper and spread on the cloud. Once you strip away costs for producing DVDs, distribution, % for store sales etc... I can't see the server price would be unattainable. Finding uncapped usage on the consumer side might be different, but the 200MB packages I have been looking at are completely unthrottled.

Anyway, just a thought.

Digital distribution does have a future, a big one, but digital distribution is exactly what's is going to hold 4K back. Let's put it this way, Neflix alone consumes 1/3rd of ALL internet peak traffic int he US. That's with mostly SD footage. Just SD off of Netflix uses 1GB/hr of bandwidth. This is already a lot when you have ~25 million subscribers to serve.

I'm typing this on a fiber-optic internet line, 150 Mbps is available to my home (though I'm on a cheaper lower speed plan), but walk a block down you're stuck with DSL because the building complex can't run new lines through it. Digital distribution isn't about the highest common denominator, its about the lowest common denominator. Getting your product to as many consumers as possible.

Its the economics of it. The real issue is that internet users may be high-volume consumers, but they aren't high-paying consumers. These are consumers that want to pay $8 a month and want to watch unlimited movies at their leisure 24 hours a day, the alternative for them is to download it illegally.

The more technical issue is that internet distribution for 4K would mean incredibly high compression for videos that would largely diminish the image quality bump of going to 4K in the first place. For Blu-ray, the plan is to use BDXL disks for 4K which can store up to 128GBs of data, compared to 50GBs currently used for BD to store 1080p. For 4K that needs to get compressed down to a bitrate that would better represent stable internet speeds that can be economically viable for internet distribution. If anything, digital distribution will work on getting better bitrates/higher-quality on 720/1080p video rather than move to 4K.

 

[ATL Media Group]

The next paradigm shift in cinema will come with augmented reality eyewear. So if you want to future proof your films now, shoot them in 3D. Because 15 years from now people aren't going to carry cell phones, those will be replaced with AR glasses. Which means 3D will be super easy, portable and everywhere.

15 years? No way.. much sooner than that. http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/04/04/google-begins-testing-terminator-style-smartphone-glasses/
Now in fact.... or by next year at least.

 

[Jay Birch]

Neflix alone consumes 1/3rd of ALL internet peak traffic int he US. That's with mostly SD footage. Just SD off of Netflix uses 1GB/hr of bandwidth. This is already a lot when you have ~25 million subscribers to serve.

Wow, that is insane. I certainly see your point that the providers will be in no rush to upgrade to 4K (much like the broadcasters).

My initial point was that 4K monitors will be here very soon (iMac, this year, so i'm led to believe). People will be hungry for 4K content, so if a company is brave enough to step into the market, they might just succeed.

 

[mdg]

I wonder if competition from Panasonic & Sony (but not looking like Canon) will force RED to lower the price on the Scarlet. If they can move the base Scarlet package to 10-12k, I think they'd kill it.

 

[vincent thomas]

Canon should be the first to lower the price of the C300. Then they should be smart and also offer a rebate to customer who have already bought the c300 for the original selling price...

Now im afraid they will not do that...

__________________________________________________________
Vincent Thomas
Artist for Film / Photograph & Creative Director
http://www.stranger-than-paradise.book.fr/
http://fr.linkedin.com/in/vincentthomas

I wonder if competition from Panasonic & Sony (but not looking like Canon) will force RED to lower the price on the Scarlet. If they can move the base Scarlet package to 10-12k, I think they'd kill it.

 

[Tzedekh]

I wonder if competition from Panasonic & Sony (but not looking like Canon) will force RED to lower the price on the Scarlet. If they can move the base Scarlet package to 10-12k, I think they'd kill it.

For what Epic and Scarlet do, there still is no competition, even with new 4K products from Sony and Panasonic. Red's products are rugged, field-tested cameras that shoot raw. The whole workflow is relatively mature. Sony's FS700 is plastic, and its future 4K raw is a big question mark. If the firmware upgrade and recording solution cost, say, significantly less than $5K, bringing the total to $13-14K, then it might compete against Scarlet-X. But if the upgrade is costs anywhere near what Sony originally charged for the F3's S-log 4:4:4 firmware, that'll be an additional $3K; and if the 4K recorder is anything like the SR-R1 or SR-R4, you're looking at another $15K or more, and that doesn't include recording media.

Red, on the other hand, once it actually releases its products, keeps improving them, and firmware upgrades are free. Scarlet-X's shortcomings will probably be largely fixed by the time Sony releases its 4K solution for the FS700.

Panasonic may release a 4K camera, but unless it can keep it under $15K or so (that is, no expensive add-ons are required to make it work) or provide an exceptional feature set, then it will be waging an uphill battle against Red. Regardless, I don't see Red dropping its prices, especially since it just raised them in January. The only thing that will make working with Scarlet less costly is, possibly, cheaper third-party consumables (e.g., cheap SSDs that get Red's imprimatur).

 

[roxics]

15 years? No way.. much sooner than that. http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/04/04/google-begins-testing-terminator-style-smartphone-glasses/
Now in fact.... or by next year at least.

I still think it's going to take about 15 years before these glasses are small enough and powerful enough to really make AR a reality for the majority of the population. To the point where they look like sunglasses or eye glasses and don't require any wires coming off of them. Battery built into the frames or getting power from the heat of your body. People won't wear them if it makes them look dorky.

What Google is previewing is a low res web 2.0ish overlay. A good start, but a little novel. What I envision is something more cinematic. Where you can play war games in the woods with your friends and it looks like the trees around you are blowing up and aliens are actually flying down from the sky. As if you are IN the environment. This would require a lot of GPU power to match virtual objects with surrounding light as well as mask real objects and composite virtual objects in their place.

But at the very least these glasses will need to be able to handle 1080p in each eye to simulate 3D HD movies the way we see them in the cinema today.

If anything 4K or higher is better suited for what I'm going to coin as "AR Cinema." Which will be productions that are more like watching a stage play or a flash mob than a traditional style film. More like reality. Where everything starts as a master shot and the viewers themselves choose if they want to see more by changing their distance and viewing angle. But even then traditional shooting styles will need to be augmented. You'll no longer be forcing the audience to see the scene the way the director wants them to see it. No longer about close-ups, mediums shots, selective focus and so on. It will be more like 180 degree master shots in high resolution requiring multiple 3D cameras. Final product stitched into a curved panoramic surrounding the scene.

Which is not to say that traditional cinema will die. I just think we've reached our apex with it. Obviously 2K is good enough for theatrical distribution. The question becomes "will theaters spend the money to upgrade if very few of their patrons could actually tell the difference?" They already dropped a load of money just to go digital a few years ago. Theater attendance keeps dropping. Most people aren't going to be able to see 4K in their living room if they can barely tell the difference between 720p and 1080p.
Which is why I'm insisting that a paradigm shift needs to happen to really make 4K viable. 4K is not the shift itself, it will be the supporting spec of a new kind of cinema. Just like HD was the support spec of flat panel TVs and digital cinema conversion. In and of itself 4K is a fruitless spec bump.

As for companies releasing 4K tv's. Sure it's bound to happen. But very few people will buy them to watch 4K movies. If anything they'll buy them for video games. But even if then, most people won't be able to tell the difference when watching movies. So I don't see why that is a valid reason for us shooting 4K either. The only valid reason for shooting 4K traditional cinema is better 2K.

 

[Jim Martin]

No, Canon is not going to lower the price nor give rebates to current C300 owners....Canon can not make them fast enough and I'm taking orders every day!

Jim Martin
Filmtools.com

 

[Michael Olsen]

I wonder if competition from Panasonic & Sony (but not looking like Canon) will force RED to lower the price on the Scarlet. If they can move the base Scarlet package to 10-12k, I think they'd kill it.

If history along with plenty of direct quotes from the folks behind RED have taught us anything, it's that RED isn't about lowering prices on existing products.

They are, however, about making existing products better, for a very reasonably sum, if not free, offering an upgrade path that has been rarely matched, and then offering the same update in their cameras for sale.

Look at what happened with Mysterium (the original RED ONE imager) and then Mysterium-X. RED ONE owners were all given the option to upgrade their existing cameras to the new sensor at a fantastic price; far less than the price of purchasing a brand new M-X RED ONE. And then the M-X rolled out on the RED ONE, then EPIC, then Scarlet.

Now, RED is preparing Dragon, their newest sensor. We can expect to see the same; current RED owners (I'm thinking EPIC and Scarlet only, but we'll have to see) will be given an upgrade option. Keep your current camera, pay a small portion of a new camera price, and get the new sensor installed. Or you can wait and buy a totally new camera with the new sensor. That is a part of the RED "deal".

 

[adkimery]

So, I really think if you work the math backwards from Tablet Domination of the market, that should tell you that 1080p is the best bet as a ubiquitous format for the next 5 years and then probably 4K starting in 2017 onwards.
Having grown up in multimedia during the tech bubble, I learned that the stakeholders tend to exaggerate the future in a big way.
The smart money is on holding back a bit.

5-10 yrs was the timetable I was thinking about for 4k on the consumer end to become common. Not necessarily everywhere, but common. The costs of manufacturing of displays has to come way down, codecs need to get more efficient, etc.,. Considering how much has changed since 2002 I can barely imagine what the landscape is going to look like in 2022. I mean, YouTube is less than 10yrs old, Netflix didn't start streaming until late in '08, TVs are now coming internet ready with pre-installed apps... the IP delivery model as more than just a novelty is still in it's infancy.

Obviously bandwidth/connectivity issues are a concern but that's not stopping everything from becoming cloud this and cloud that. Everything is getting funneled into a single delivery pipe and, IMO, the only two options are for that pipe to keep expanding or for this innovation and new gadget mania to come to a screeching halt and I think there is too much money to be had in selling people new gadgets so companies (and governments) will figure out a way to keep expanding the pipe. I think the next cord that's going to be cut is going to be Internet land line. Once we get up to 8G on mobile devices (or what ever it'll be called) and you can't swing a dead cat w/o hitting a tower (or micro-tower) then many people will ditch their wired internet for a mobile WiFi hotspot. Now I'm just rambling...

I still think it's going to take about 15 years before these glasses are small enough and powerful enough to really make AR a reality for the majority of the population. To the point where they look like sunglasses or eye glasses and don't require any wires coming off of them. Battery built into the frames or getting power from the heat of your body. People won't wear them if it makes them look dorky.

Or if they weigh too much, are uncomfortable or are just more hassle than they are worth (and hopefully they don't give you brain cancer... ) When I first saw videos of AR used in consumer phones (3yrs ago or so) I thought it was going to be the greatest thing ever and take off like wild fire. I was a little wrong w/that guess apparently.

Which is not to say that traditional cinema will die. I just think we've reached our apex with it. Obviously 2K is good enough for theatrical distribution.

I guess that depends on what you're definition of good enough is. More than one movie has been sourced in DV and ended up on the big screen so is DV good enough? I saw 28 Days Later in the theater and never found the quality distractingly bad although I'm sure some people did.

As for companies releasing 4K tv's. Sure it's bound to happen. But very few people will buy them to watch 4K movies. If anything they'll buy them for video games. But even if then, most people won't be able to tell the difference when watching movies. So I don't see why that is a valid reason for us shooting 4K either. The only valid reason for shooting 4K traditional cinema is better 2K.

I think there are a number of valid reasons to shoot 4k. Heck, I saw a video recently of Michael Cioni talking about The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo workflow and how they shot 5k for 4k mastering. For years people shot TV shows on film even though the final destination was an SD broadcast and VHS. Whether or not it's valid for your workflow should be the only thing that matters. For what I'm doing right now it's not practical to do it in 4k, but doesn't mean there aren't practical uses for 4k or 8k or whatever.

As far as distribution goes, since when has been not being able to tell the difference, or utilize the difference, kept them from buying the 'bigger, better' product? I'm sure w/o an A/B comparison most people wouldn't be able to the tell the difference between SD and HD or between a CD and an AAC file from iTunes. In 3-4yrs I think some people will be buying 4k TVs because they like being on the cutting edge and/or they believe they can tell a difference. In 10yrs I think people will be buying 4k TVs because HDTVs will no longer be for sale. And even though it's a 4k display people will still watch SD on it.
I agree though that better quality isn't always enough to get consumers to move to a new format as long as they are happy w/the current format (ex. SACD vs CD).

-Andrew

 

[mik303]

If history along with plenty of direct quotes from the folks behind RED have taught us anything, it's that RED isn't about lowering prices on existing products.

They are, however, about making existing products better, for a very reasonably sum, if not free, offering an upgrade path that has been rarely matched, and then offering the same update in their cameras for sale.

Look at what happened with Mysterium (the original RED ONE imager) and then Mysterium-X. RED ONE owners were all given the option to upgrade their existing cameras to the new sensor at a fantastic price; far less than the price of purchasing a brand new M-X RED ONE. And then the M-X rolled out on the RED ONE, then EPIC, then Scarlet.

Now, RED is preparing Dragon, their newest sensor. We can expect to see the same; current RED owners (I'm thinking EPIC and Scarlet only, but we'll have to see) will be given an upgrade option. Keep your current camera, pay a small portion of a new camera price, and get the new sensor installed. Or you can wait and buy a totally new camera with the new sensor. That is a part of the RED "deal".

RED's modular approach is awesome. From what we have seen so far, Sony, JVC and Canon have not decided to start competing in the modular area. They just keep putting out new cameras, with slight differences. Panasonic could really make a spalsh with a modular approach to an AF-100. This NAB2012 release will be a turning point in my camera career for sure. If Panasonic acts like Sony and has no real update to the AF100, I may just have to jump into a little debt and just join the RED Scarlet Family myself. I have a great set of Nikon Primes, monitor, tripod and other accessories that can all support the Scarlet. I was just hoping that my next camera purchase would be around $6,000 and not $14,000 (Scarlet). That Sony camera FS700 is just not enough of an upgrade, it's kind of disappointing on the surface. (As far as I know, the official specs have not been released.) And the C300 for it's price? Really? Why?

Not to mention ... the Dragon rumors are heating up! I can't afford it, but WOW! The new Epic Big Brother could be SICK!