Nobody knows anything!

Batutta

Batutta

Major Contributor
An amusing post from screenwriter John Rogers--

TRUE STORY:
Movie Exec: They're insane. His last movie made a nickel. There's not a single star in the thing, the whole project's going to cost something like two hundred million dollars, they're shooting in New Zealand so the studio can't be down there and maintain control -- they're ruined. What the hell were they thinking?
Me: The Lord of the Rings is the most popular set of books in HISTORY.
Movie Exec: Eh. Elves. Please.

http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com/2009/12/reruns-adaptation-pt-1-2.html
 
Not to nitpick but this only proves that this particular movie exec doesn't know anything :) not that nobody knows anything :) and $200M is an awful lot of money to bet on *any* movie, nothing is guaranteed, the Lord of the Rings stuff was a success on so many levels, but only because they got just about every aspect of doing the films right - it easily could have been a financial disaster...but it wasn't by a long shot, all I mean to say is that the perspective of the man who has to write the $200M check is very different from anyone else's and with good reason, doesn't make them always right or wrong, but it's a whole different set of concerns.
 
That was a lot of money for each movie, and it's not the case of being able to make one movie and if it hits making the other 2... it's all one story! And a story that had been made before in an animated version and made $13m - which might have given this exec an idea of what kind of audience there was for this movie. And I have no idea what the actual most popular series of novels off all time are, but I doubt it's LOTR... more likely Sherlock Holmes (though there are only 2 novels and a bunch of short stories - they have always been in print and always been popular and Holmes is the most filmed character of all time).

An exec is a businessman, and when they decide to buy a script or fund a film it's a business decision based on *information*. They look at *facts*. How much money have films in this genre made in the recent past? Where is the actor on the Ulmer Scale? How much money did the director's last film make? The star's last film? How does a story like this do around the world? Just like in any other business, you look at past information to make decisions on what is likely to happen in the near future...

Though 95% of the time you can predict what a film will make (there are at least 2 consulting companies that accurately predict what kind of business a movie will make based on script and elements before the film has been financed... used to get films financed), 5% of the time things are completely unpredictable. Some movie that no one thinks will make any money becomes a hit. A movie everyone knows will be a hit flops big time. But usually things are predictable - check out the BOMojo feature where they compare similar films. That always amazes me. Similar films make similar amounts of money - often no matter how much is spent to make the film.

So, people *do* know things. They just can't predict the exceptions.

- Bill
 
This thread is on the LORD OF THE RINGS movies...

But Box Office Mojo has a feature where they compare 5 similar films - you can call it up for almost every movie, but they probably call it "showdown" on the website menu.

So, if you want to look at how well 1980s horror remakes do at the box office, you can look at that "showdown" and it shows everything from budget to opening weekends to weekly BO to the total cinema BO. What is interesting is that they all make about the same amount of money... no mater what the budget.

There is a predictable box office amount for a specific type of film.

Indie dramatic Oscar nominees without a big star? They all make the same amount. Add a star, they make $10m more.

You *can* know how much a movie will make. Sure, there are the flukes, but these charts show how close similar films are at the box office.

- Bill
 
Thanks Bill, I'll check that out.

As far as the original topic, I think the exec was just like all the other execs out there who have avoided movies like this for years. I think most people make movies that they want to see more of. And many execs pass on financing certain movies because it's a movie they really don't care to see. Like that exec even said, "Eh. Elves. Please."

So it's possible that if you're looking for financing that you might not necessarily have a bad story/script but you just haven't gotten it to someone who enjoys those types of movies yet. Just my thoughts.
 
I have read the same thing, though no practical first hand knowledge. But that is why I have heard that distributors can predict quite well what a movie will make, in order to negotiate negative pick up and other deals with filmmakers.
 
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