Educated Guesses

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Based on past releases, when do you guys think Panasonic will be coming out with the follow-up to the DVX100a? I'm assuming this will be HD, is this correct? I know Panasonic is pretty tight-lipped about all that, but do you guys have any idea? Or an educated guess?

Thanks.
 
Re: Educated Guesses

Panasonic has made no statement on consumer-level HD, except to say that they are not (currently) part of the HDV coalition. So either they will ignore consumer HD, or they will develop their own proprietary HD format, or they will join the HDV coalition, but as of right now they're not saying.

The only future direction they've given us is that they seem very attached to the idea of developing solid-state memory recording, instead of tape (i.e., recording to P2 cards instead of on tape).
 
Re: Educated Guesses

It would be nice to know if there is any added benefit to using solid-state memory other than simply being tapeless. Sure digitizing and drops outs can be a drag but I don’t consider them much of barrier to successful production of quality content. :-*
 
Re: Educated Guesses

Bandwidth is a benefit. Solid state is much faster then tape right now, even if it's no where neer the raw storage capacity. As we're seeing in this whole Juan 4:4:4 hack, with the right storage backbone, panasonic could easily market an uncompressed version of their current camcorders and make an exponential gain in image quality simply by changing the recording medium.

Yeah, solid state is the absolute future. It's not close enough to be viable right now, but it is eventually going to be the only method we use. I'm confident in that.
 
Re: Educated Guesses

[quote author=ChuckS link=board=nws;num=1097866720;start=0#2 date=10/15/04 at 12:32:18]It would be nice to know if there is any added benefit to using solid-state memory other than simply being tapeless.   Sure digitizing and drops outs can be a drag but I don’t consider them much of barrier to successful production of quality content. :-*[/quote]

Durability. No digitization necessary. Lighter weight. Far less to go wrong.
 
Re: Educated Guesses

Anything is possible, but there are opportunity costs and not to say that these are mutually exclusive, but if I’m given the choice between HD on tape or standard def on P2 – I’m choosing the HD.

Solid-state memory is cool; I do a lot of digital photography and use it all the time; however, I learned a hard lesson. I kept purchasing larger and larger memory cards (1GB) until one day when I plugged the card into a reader to download, something happened and it scrambled the bit order, I lost almost two thirds of the images from that card – it makes the prospect of the occasional drop out not so bad.
 
Re: Educated Guesses

[quote author=J_Barnes link=board=nws;num=1097866720;start=0#4 date=10/15/04 at 12:37:48]Yeah, solid state is the absolute future.  It's not close enough to be viable right now, but it is eventually going to be the only method we use.  I'm confident in that.[/quote]

Unless it's some kind of organic/liquid/ethereal medium. Is human memory considered 'solid state'? :D

I agree in principle (the future is tapeless), but with nano/biotechnologies just getting their feet wet in what's possible, I seriously think that even the solid state as we know today will one day be superseeded.
 
Re: Educated Guesses

[quote author=ChuckS link=board=nws;num=1097866720;start=0#6 date=10/15/04 at 12:45:38]I kept purchasing larger and larger memory cards (1GB) until one day when I plugged the card into a reader to download, something happened and it scrambled the bit order, I lost almost two thirds of the images from that card – it makes the prospect of the occasional drop out not so bad.  
[/quote]
I also do a lot of still digital photography. The larges card I have is 256MB because most everyone I have spoken to thinks that it's better to have four 256MB cards than one 1GB. Not only it's cheaper, it's also safer - as you've learned. It's rare that a memory card goes all bad, usually only a small part, but that small part can be a lot more images on a large capacity card than a smaller one.

But I agree that an occasional dropout on a tape is more tolerable than losing even as little as 5% of a solid state memory. That's why I think the future is going to be vastly redundant memory arrays that will be something entirely different than what we know today.
 
Re: Educated Guesses

Well, here's the thing with tape of any kind...there's a fixed amount of information you can put on that tape at a given point in time. With solid state (or other non linear storage mediums) you're not necessarily limited by the same physical constraints.

If you're not limited with how much raw data you can capture at any given moment, there's a lot more freedom in what methods of capture and compression you use to get your image. Obviously this is really all moot because of the current costs of solid state storage, but in the future those costs will be marginal.

We're close to a jump in broadband speed, our televisions are more and more being built with resolution and cycle-variable LCD technology, and our PVRs are converging with our network PCs.

Realistically, we can’t even count on HD being a standard because we can’t count on broadcast to remain a standard.

If the internet fully converges with our home entertainment systems, we’re not going to be limited to arbitrary standards of resolution, frame rate and aspect ratios.

I don’t know where I was going with that. I think I was trying to say that a non-linear processing method really opens the door for a lot of other user definable features and leaps in image quality.

Yeah…sure, that’s what I was trying to say.
 
Re: Educated Guesses

Solid state memory recording is available today. Digital Still cameras have been using it for quite a while, and Panasonic is using it in the new SPX800, which stores DVCPRO50 4:2:2 on P2 memory cards.

It's expensive currently, I think a 15-minute P2 card costs something like $2,000, but as production ramps up those prices will of course plummet.

I HATE dropouts. I hate sparklies and venetian blinds. I hate having to rewind and log and capture. DV Rack is a great first step, but on-board solid-state would be a heavenly solution.
 
Re: Educated Guesses

and not to mention... solid state is a hell of alot more efficient power wise so the batteries will last longer.
 
Re: Educated Guesses

If i had to choose between HD/tape and SD/solid state, i would go anytime for HD/tape, no doubt in my mind.

...maybe i am very very lucky...but i never had serious trouble with droupouts in 250 shooting hrs with my old VX1000 and DVX100A...I just keep it clean and NEVER use cleaning tape.


...but if the next Panasonic is HD (HDV or HDsomething...) AND solid state, then it could be very interesting.
 
Re: Educated Guesses

[quote author=Mark Brandon link=board=nws;num=1097866720;start=0#0 date=10/15/04 at 11:58:39]
Based on past releases, when do you guys think Panasonic will be coming out with the follow-up to the DVX100a?[/quote]

based on my highly reliable sources, they said w/in 5 years.  ;) my educational guess, w/in 2 years. :D my wet dream guess, by nab 2005. :P
 
Re: Educated Guesses

4000~6000 dollar 24P HDV+ cinegamma control?
my guess is another 2years for that.
 
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