Does The Economic Upswing in Movies Mean Anything to the Indy Filmmaker?

F

FrankC

Well-known member
I'm asking this question from the "business" stand point of independent moviemaking. Hollywood is now in a boom cycle of the business. Happens all the time during a Economic downswing. The Question is, does this Hollywood boom mean anything at all to the independent filmmaking community... or is just a Hollywood thing benefiting only the big studio business? And will it have no meaningful effect on those that make movies that will probably never see the inside of a theatre?
The big screen winners right now are comedies ( Let's forget our troubles ). If we as independents ramp up making comedies, will we sell more DVDs too? Or are the comedies that are winning simply "big studio comedies" shown in a theatre because more people want to go to a theatre to... a) hide from the world, or... b) hang out with other people who also want to hang out with other people? Does a movie like "Slumdog", with NO stars, means the public accepts movies with NO stars but has a great story...more than the distributors do? Or is Slumdog simply this years "Blair Witch" an aberation. Not indicative of any trend to us independent moviemakers? Whaddaya think?
 
I think it's possible that some of the product clogging the pipe could thin a little, on account of indies (already economically disadvantaged) finding it even harder than normal to find cash and crew willing to work for cheap/free (and for little to no financial return).

As a result, this could possibly create a small window for some indies gearing up for production now to find a place in the market it might not have a year ago.

I don't think anyone can really know for sure, though.
 
shutterspeedfilms said:
I think it's possible that some of the product clogging the pipe could thin a little, on account of indies (already economically disadvantaged) finding it even harder than normal to find cash and crew willing to work for cheap/free (and for little to no financial return).

As a result, this could possibly create a small window for some indies gearing up for production now to find a place in the market it might not have a year ago.

I don't think anyone can really know for sure, though.
Click to expand...

You think so? I mean, honestly I think now is the best time to hire crew for cheap or free, because a lot of people I know are sitting around without work and would rather do something than nothing. Especially if it's a feature with deferred pay, even if they figure they are unlikely to see any money, if it's that or sit home for two weeks still not working, a lot of people would rather do something and feel that somehow they are making progress or adding to their resumes in a downswing. At least, that's my experience.

I know a lot of really professional people struggling to get work right now. I don't think the indie world is helped that much by the bad economy / Hollywood upswing.

I think it's proof, however, that I'm in the right business, because I just think, sweet, so if I make it one day I am not only in the most fun, most famous business in the world, but also one that is completely immune to economic recessions and depressions (historically has always been the case). So that's encouraging. ;)
 
Do You Think an Indy Comedy Would Have a Better Chance NOW?

Do You Think an Indy Comedy Would Have a Better Chance NOW?

Jonathan... I echo you sentiments about being in the biz... even with all its uncertainties. My Question goes more to the challenges of distribution for the indy movie making entreprenuer. Is the fact that the big guys are having a very good time, bode good for us? or is it completely irrelevant?
Obviously, I would LIKE to think a door is opening for more indy produced comedies since it seems comedy is in demand...at least in theatres.
 
Hollywood boom? Which hollywood are you thinking of?

I don't mean to be harsh, but do you read variety? Or the Hollywood Reporter? Hollywood is downsizing. 40% less greenlights this year. Sony Pictures just slashed 300 jobs. ABC TV slashed 400. Warner Brothers slashed 800. Viacom eliminated 7% of its workplace. Paramount will eliminate 100 positions. NBC is knocking off around 500.

There isn't a Hollywood boom. Boxoffice this year is up 17%. But that doesn't translate into positive times in the entertainment world.

Slumdog took a huge bump in BO sales because of its wins and its nominations. Look at the charts for it. Slumdog came out at the right time, it was an endearing story, and something we have never really seen before. Which is why it did so well.

Distribution doesn't really happen anymore. Acquisitions at sundance this year (many films that are hitting the big screen - like Adventureland) ranged between mid-six figure and two million. Indie films that are in the 1 - 4 million range are hard to sell and recoup investment.

True indies are next to impossible to sell without a bulletproof plan. You need to look outside of the traditional realms of distribution. Since you are unlikely to make back any money even if you get a distribution deal.

Take a look at the charts. There are a lot more action, drama, adventure, and horror films on the charts than comedy.

Even the argument for a window opening can be killed off with historical data. Look at the writers strike. People (indie film makers) were all betting on a massive window opening for them...that year, sundance (and other major film festivals) acquisitions were down.

In this economy and these times - when the models of distribution are changing, you need to look at what is financially viable and what can be marketed. Or self-distribute. Like a lot of people are starting to do.

But this isn't a boom for anyone.

-Matt
 
Mattykins said:
Hollywood boom? Which hollywood are you thinking of?

I don't mean to be harsh, but do you read variety? Or the Hollywood Reporter? Hollywood is downsizing. 40% less greenlights this year. Sony Pictures just slashed 300 jobs. ABC TV slashed 400. Warner Brothers slashed 800. Viacom eliminated 7% of its workplace. Paramount will eliminate 100 positions. NBC is knocking off around 500.

There isn't a Hollywood boom. Boxoffice this year is up 17%. But that doesn't translate into positive times in the entertainment world.

Slumdog took a huge bump in BO sales because of its wins and its nominations. Look at the charts for it. Slumdog came out at the right time, it was an endearing story, and something we have never really seen before. Which is why it did so well.

Distribution doesn't really happen anymore. Acquisitions at sundance this year (many films that are hitting the big screen - like Adventureland) ranged between mid-six figure and two million. Indie films that are in the 1 - 4 million range are hard to sell and recoup investment.

True indies are next to impossible to sell without a bulletproof plan. You need to look outside of the traditional realms of distribution. Since you are unlikely to make back any money even if you get a distribution deal.

Take a look at the charts. There are a lot more action, drama, adventure, and horror films on the charts than comedy.

Even the argument for a window opening can be killed off with historical data. Look at the writers strike. People (indie film makers) were all betting on a massive window opening for them...that year, sundance (and other major film festivals) acquisitions were down.

In this economy and these times - when the models of distribution are changing, you need to look at what is financially viable and what can be marketed. Or self-distribute. Like a lot of people are starting to do.

But this isn't a boom for anyone.

-Matt
Click to expand...

I'd ask you the same thing -- do YOU read Variety?! I'm a subscriber and I follow the business carefully, this is a banner year for Hollywood, it will probably be an all-time record at the box office. Business IS fantastic. You are talking about media companies owned by large conglomerates with numerous arms to them, only a few of which are entertainment related. It's only natural they are going to downsize in some areas to compensate for losses in others. It is irrelevant how many movies are made to the state of the industry. That's only relevant to film workers, not to the actual state of business in Hollywood, which is fantastic. During any economic crisis Hollywood has always done superb and this year is no exception. Many analysts believe this will be the best year in history, as far as money goes.

Also television is doing fantastic, viewing is at an all-time high of 151 hours per American per month, that's incredible! It is spread out over more networks now than it ever was before, but that isn't a reason to say that somehow TV viewership is in the crapper. It's actually fantastic, it just isn't as concentrated on the four major networks as it was in times past. I think that's a good thing, personally. They are making more television shows on more stations than ever before -- now I personally follow shows on the WB (Smallville, Supernatural), USA Network (Burn Notice), Showtime (Dexter, Californication, Weeds), HBO (Entourage; in the past Deadwood, Six Feet Under, etc.), Fox (House, Prison Break), CBS (CSI, Two and a Half Men), ABC (Lost, Scrubs), and NBC (Heroes). It's a great time to be a fan of good TV.

You can cite layoffs and cutbacks all you want but that won't change the bottom line -- Hollywood is doing very well.
 
I can and do cite layoffs and cutbacks. There is more to it than simply a box-office rise.

Funding isn't being had anymore. It's hard for even hollywood players to get funding. Because of the economic structure. Looking simply at the percentage of viewers doesn't translate into good business internally.

If hollywood was doing great - then why are studios folding? Why are divisions being slashed? Showbiz market share took a huge turn down this week amid fears of bankruptcy. We both read variety. Awesome. But you are interpreting this much different that I.

There is a larger picture to deal with. And the original poster is asking about indie films. To answer his question. No.

And where did I say TV viewship was down? I actually only said BO was up 17%. Which to you equates to awesome. To others, not-so-much. And "good" is kinda subjective. I would say that the writers strike wave is finally passing. And a lot of shows really took a hit in quality and story. But that is personal perspective.

And almost every year is a banner year. But it isn't worth taking my time to post anymore. I've been around here long enough to know when it isn't worth making note of the industry. If you look at one side, you could infer things are going well (BO ticket sales). If you look at the larger picture. Things aren't doing so hot. Depends on how selective you want to be. And how you want to interpret numbers.
 
Excellent Points!

Excellent Points!

You both make very good points. I think Matt hit on one thing... a lot is how one interprets the data. Money is up for big studio Hollywood, but Jobs are down for those that work IN Hollywood. How does this relates to the Independent low-funded movie maker?... Matt says "it doesn't". I think he's right. Perhaps what happens to Big Money Hollywood has absolutely no effect on micro budget indies. HOWEVER, do we see any trends developing here in potentially successful genres in this marketplace, i.e. Comedies? Are comedies getting bigger because of hard times? If so, can indies capitalize on this? Personally, I would like the answer to be yes since I have a couple of micro-budget comedies ready to go, but I don't want to proceed if I end up saying, "ya know, I shoulda made that Kung Fu movie instead because it would be sold by now!".
 
I think that any difference either way is negligible.

Perhaps distribution chances would improve in 18 months if less films are greenlit from Hollywood or large indies. But for micro-budget indies...that window will enlarge by 1% possibly for major distribution and 5% for minor distribution avenues.

Revenue will surely be down as well if there is no general economic recovery. Just as Crew might work cheaper now (and why not, I know plenty of people in the general workforce who are lucky to keep jobs but are taking 20% pay reductions to do so), so too must producers be willing to take less on deals because people are going to be looking to take less and less risk (particularly financially).

However, for folks who are able to maintain their financial status and produce "something" it may be just slightly better in the end game. However, I doubt that it will be noticable in any real sense.

Any way you look though. I don't think that the "Film Biz" is recession proof.

-M
 
Is Self Distribution a better deal now?

Is Self Distribution a better deal now?

I agree. The Film Biz would not be "recession proof", but you gotta admit history shows it to do well during down times. Perhaps today may be different, however the financial news says box office is up! TV viewing is up. Does that mean "escapism" is in demand as one might think during down times? If so, would that mean I have a better chance of selling my DVD ( self distributing ) than to work for a distribution deal... especially if the distribution guys are hurting as you have pointed out?
 
I tend to agree with most of what Matt says, though it's impossible to know how on a micro level what's going to happen to a position any of us might find ourselves in, in a few short months. Most of all though, what he said here really hits home to me:

True indies are next to impossible to sell without a bulletproof plan. You need to look outside of the traditional realms of distribution. Since you are unlikely to make back any money even if you get a distribution deal.
Click to expand...
That's been the problem for a while, but by everything I've seen, it's definitely even more accurate than a few years ago, and not likely to change to make things easier anytime soon. There are now more "filmmakers" than ever before, and very quickly the arena is flooded with people trying to succeed in the same way. This is why you do indeed need a serious plan, and serious focus that is outside the box. I recommend the book Blue Ocean Strategy, which discusses out to sell your business outside traditional means, and very applicable to our times, and industry on this level.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top