Consumer demand for 3D TV not so good - same fate for 4K?

L

lonewolf2koc@hotmail.com

Well-known member
http://entertainment.msn.com/news/article.aspx?news=812928
http://www.studiodaily.com/2013/06/espn-pulls-the-plug-on-3d-channel/

OK. 3D is not so hot now. But what about 4K? My speculations:
Going to take efforts of biblical proportion to get the mass consumer paying $5K for a 4K 55" display.
For certain I'm not going to be paying $25K for their 84" UHD.

After looking closely at the floor demo on Sony 4K 55", I only see small-moderate resolution advantage when
viewing about a foot away from the display. As soon as I move back to 10-15 ft, extremely hard to discern
from 1080p source. I'd say the display would have to be at least 80-120" to take advantage of 4K.

Similarly, I use the Mac Book Pro 15" with Retina display. Virtually identical to the non-retina display on 15"-17".
Only if you pay close attention to the small text or need full 100% 1080p display on FCPX, there's an advantage. Otherwise it's
literally not much difference in perceived resolution.


http://www.studiodaily.com/2013/06/six-hollywood-studios-now-have-agreements-with-kodak/

Traditional film is still the preferred format for most major studios. Apparently they don't
think 4K is good enough. Probably when 8K is out, they may reconsider.

Realistically, producing a long-form doc in the AVC-I 100 codec is already cutting a lot of
profits for data archiving all of the raw P2 media. LTO-6 drive and media, double hdds interims storage,
RAID 50, and so forth. One can buy a new HPX-250 or PMW-200 with 4K data archive every month. These
things add up quickly.

Very hard to predict the final outcome of this 4K craze. I hope someday 4K will be as cheap as 1080p video.
In the meantime, I'll let early adopters accrue huge equipment debt w/ little return on investment for 4K gear
for the next 5 years or so. I'll definitely will focus on the script and content itself. 4K=huge debt hole.
 
Last edited:
lonewolf2koc@hotmail.com said:
http://entertainment.msn.com/news/article.aspx?news=812928
http://www.studiodaily.com/2013/06/espn-pulls-the-plug-on-3d-channel/

OK. 3D is not so hot now. But what about 4K? My speculations:
Going to take efforts of biblical proportion to get the mass consumer paying $5K for a 4K 55" display.
For certain I'm not going to be paying $25K for their 84" UHD.

After looking closely at the floor demo on Sony 4K 55", I only see small-moderate resolution advantage when
viewing about a foot away from the display. As soon as I move back to 10-15 ft, extremely hard to discern
from 1080p source. I'd say the display would have to be at least 80-120" to take advantage of 4K.

Similarly, I use the Mac Book Pro 15" with Retina display. Virtually identical to the non-retina display on 15"-17".
Only if you pay close attention to the small text or need full 100% 1080p display on FCPX, there's an advantage. Otherwise it's
literally not much difference in perceived resolution.


http://www.studiodaily.com/2013/06/six-hollywood-studios-now-have-agreements-with-kodak/

Traditional film is still the preferred format for most major studios. Apparently they don't
think 4K is good enough. Probably when 8K is out, they may reconsider.

Realistically, producing a long-form doc in the AVC-I 100 codec is already cutting a lot of
profits for data archiving all of the raw P2 media. LTO-6 drive and media, double hdds interims storage,
RAID 50, and so forth. One can buy a new HPX-250 or PMW-200 with 4K data archive every month. These
things add up quickly.

Very hard to predict the final outcome of this 4K craze. I hope someday 4K will be as cheap as 1080p video.
In the meantime, I'll let early adopters accrue huge equipment debt w/ little return on investment for 4K gear
for the next 5 years or so. I'll definitely will focus on the script and content itself. 4K=huge debt hole.
Click to expand...

I didn't get from that article that they want film for acquisition. I think the film is for 35mm prints.

For example a recent release from 20th Century Fox, The Internship, was shot on the Arri Alexa which is not even 4k. But they will make a film print for the theaters that are not digital yet, and film prints are still very good for archival purposes.

All of the studios mentioned in that article have major movies released that were shot on 4k, or less than 4k. None of them are waiting on 8k.
 
Last edited:
lonewolf2koc@hotmail.com said:
Going to take efforts of biblical proportion to get the mass consumer paying $5K for a 4K 55" display. For certain I'm not going to be paying $25K for their 84" UHD.
Click to expand...

I remember when the first 1080 HD plasma sets from Pioneer first hit the consumer market at $15K for a 50 inch display.

The same thing will happen with 4K sets, where they will be selling for $500 in less than 5 years, and most people will still be watching their "low rez" 1080 HD blu-ray discs on them.
 
Prices will come way down, it will happen slowly. I see it is being more on a "need" basis except for the hardcore. IE, "I need a new TV... 4K prices are the norm now and price is right, ok..." vs "I need better image quality"

I remember when HD Blu-Ray was out and a lot of people were saying DVD was still "good enough." I was never in that camp, however, Blu-Ray on HD looks phenomenal and even as a videophile I can see myself saying "HDTV Blu-Ray looks good enough."

I think it'll be a slow burn before mass adoption, but as The Dingo mentioned, it will happen as prices drop and no one produces standard HD sets anymore. As for 4K versions of movies... I have quite the Blu-Ray library now, and judging on how good a job DVD upconversion can do sometimes, I think 1080p upconversion will fare well. I don't see myself replacing the majority of my Blu Ray discs for a 4K set, and I'm anal on quality. Besides, by the time 4K is mainstream perhaps everything will be digitally streaming anyway... especially with bandwidth improvements:

http://www.itnews.com.au/News/344589,fibre-optic-breakthrough-a-win-for-enterprise.aspx
 
the playstation 3 brought blu-ray to a lot of people and the next generation of consoles will bring 4k. it's only a matter of time before we have more content.

btw, you can buy a 4k television for $1298 on amazon right now.
 
I think that higher-resolution TVs (4K, 8K, etc) are not as gimmicky a concept as 3D, so they have a better chance of catching on than 3D, but then I have seen the 84" Sony 4K TV playing back 4K material, and it does not look that much better than a high-end 1080p TV of similar size when watched from a normal viewing distance.
 
agcohn said:
I think that higher-resolution TVs (4K, 8K, etc) are not as gimmicky a concept as 3D, so they have a better chance of catching on than 3D, but then I have seen the 84" Sony 4K TV playing back 4K material, and it does not look that much better than a high-end 1080p TV of similar size when watched from a normal viewing distance.
Click to expand...

There's a definite law of diminishing returns at work. At some point you need a microscope to see the difference and we don't watch TV with a microscope.
 
Gillvane said:
There's a definite law of diminishing returns at work. At some point you need a microscope to see the difference and we don't watch TV with a microscope.
Click to expand...

well and also, 4K is full film resolution, so 4K content would have to be up-rezed to 8K which would be less than ideal.
 
Gillvane said:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Seiki-SE50U...0932217337?pt=Televisions&hash=item4d0d18e5f9

[h=1]Seiki SE50UY04 50 inch 4K Ultra HD 2160p LED LCD television[/h]
Click to expand...

I feel a bit repetitive on this topic however, that unit lacks one of the basic functions "the others" offer. And that function is what WILL bring in buyers to the 4k TV market and no I don't believe it means I need to shoot 4K - in fact I'll be using that function to my own benefit.

When the 4k screens hit the stores they'll be running blurays pretty much as they do on the 1080 models. Will it look better? - scenario 55" latest 1080 oled v new 4k, same manufacturer - let's say its a Sony, who is actually most likely to have them in store the fastest (next 3-4 weeks). So, again, will it look better? Yes, it will. Forget viewing distance for a moment as most will simply stand in front of the units at the stores and go wow this is much sharper. Its not the same 1080 just straight laid across the screens 4k of pixels such as will be the case Im assuming in that Seiki model (or worse still being a cheapo unit - does it window 1080 down on the screen?) Either way theres no benefit with that unit.

That function is a serious piece of hardware these manufacturers have developed and it "upresses 1080 to 4k". Much better than our computers do with software upressing, which yields little of anything IMO. Back in the day DVX100 footage to HD wasnt to bad with the Red giant plugin (another story). OT, the hardware upres is incredibly impressive. Go look for yourself when its possible to do so.

Back a little, these consumers will stand in front of the units at the store play a 1080 blue ray and the experience is going to be much more immersive from that 'stand point' - pardon the pun. They will look at units side by side and see a BIG difference. The sales guys will be able to demonstrate a vast visual difference. Its tough out there right now and manufacturers already know the numbers game theyve been playing is working less and less i.e. That ones 200 Mhz this ones BETTER its 1000 Mhz. They have to be able to show a JUMP. And the tech is / will let them do that.

Where I can benefit - I'll be dumping a Sony 4K screen into my edit suite. I wont need to actually run any 4K material, I wont need any 4K hardware (outside the TV itself) - but Ill have a unit that will impress the pants off anyone watching any of my material here - read my clients.
 
Sony has a number of 4k tvs rolling out, asus just announced a 4k monitor a few days ago under 4k in price. They are all rolling them out now, 4k is about to take off I think. Some have said that since asus rolled out their 4k monitor, gamers will push the 4k technology forward. Honestly it comes down to graphics cards as well, and there are a few that are popping up that handle 4k really well that aren't too expensive for gamers.
 
I'm still waiting for a new satellite in orbit. It will take many years for major broadcasters to fight out their bandwidth allocation fr the FCC. H.265 on new broadcast gear. Sports and concerts production houses migrate 4K with their existing 2/3" lenses. Probably change the body. The existing 2/3" HD EFP lenses may not be good enough for 4K. Fujinon or Canon will probably introduce UHD grade lenses w/ greater MTF performance. Live production switchers have to be 4K and affordable, not half a million dollars+. At least LTO-7 tape archive with native capacity of 6 Tb. 6 Tb sata-3 hdd@$150/each... and so forth. It probably will be in 2018-2020 when this is more viable. But for some odd reasons, Panasonic's upcoming "Varicam 3" PX5000G is still 1080p. This is a very interesting and puzzling as it'll delay the push 4K for broadcasts. Their 4K Varicam model probably will not be out for 2-3 more years or if ever.
 
The burning question for me... Will 4K demand be greater than 3D demand?

( my gut feeling is that consumers aren't going to give a sh*t about 4K, much like the currently dying 3D market )
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top