candle to watts

Seriously, you could use a light meter or your camera and then test bulbs beside a candle and see for yourself.

My guess is 1-4 watts.

I've got a selection of low watt bulbs I keep in my kit for swapping out practicals, and 4 is the lowest I've got. Without testing (It's morning in here) I'd say a normal candle looks like a 4 watt bulb possibly dimmed down.
 
Are you curious of the intensity in regards to matching candle light with a fixture, or are you trying to predict the footcandle output of the candle, as in, lighting a shot with a candle? Which can be done with some film stocks, but most DV and HD systems will need a lot more light, it's all about sensitivity as you know.
 
I obviously don't know the subject matter or scenario that you are working with in simulating candle light, but the most important thing that I have encountered to properly create is the flickering of the flame, and sort of "washing" of light, meaning that the air flow around the flame causes it to bend all around, which in turn affects the emitted light.

You can use such devices as a Flickermaster or a Variac or hand dimmer if you need something very cheap. However, Flickermasters allow you to add flicker to a tungsten source, as well as strobe and intensity controls. A very low flicker setting, almost turned off works well to simulate an open candle. This can be raised if you are creating a bigger source of fire like a campfire, etc. but for a calm flame, subtlety is best. This technique is what I used for the candle motivation in the below shot. It is a 300W fresnel with opal diffusion, and 1/4 straw attached to a flickermaster with close to the above settings.

Shack.jpg
 
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