Steve Castle
Well-known member
Some interesting things, NHK, Japan's national broadcaster, is skipping 4K entirely and going straight to 8K for broadcast: they expect it in 7 years, and expect 'roll-able'/felxible displays so that large display can fit in small homes. They expect this technology to offer larger screens in people's homes to give that panoramic viewpoint which will make 3D irrelevant. They want to mate this 8K tVs to a 22.2 speaker setup.
Pie in the sky? Maybe. But they've sure sunk a lot of money and R&D into this.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/click_online/9774380.stm
UPDATED:
Looking into this a bit more. There are several long-term trends that NHK seems to be predicting:
TV screen sizes will become much larger: This is natural. When TV screens were first released they were merely 10" large in the 1930s, grew to 14" during the 1950s, then gradually 17, 19, 21" during the 1970s. By the 1990s, screen sizes grew to an average of 17" and then above 30" as the CRT approached its maximum size [Source, DOC file]. Today the average screen size topping 4-", and 60" screens are becoming dirt cheap (a few weeks ago they were in the $600 range [source]. Larger screens are becoming cheaper. 4K TV sets are coming out on 84", but eventually we should expect 100"+ screens to become approachable financially over the next couple decades. As presumably, they want 8K to be a broadcast standard to last decades, they clearly want to make a standard that can accommodate massive screen sizes (the 8K demos have been shown on a 145" screen).
Flexible displays will facilitate cheaper and larger displays: NHK seems to think that flexible displays will be the next great display technology. Instead of having massive screens made of glass, a roll-able screens, more like a retractable projection screen can be installed in the house. The benefits being a larger screen can fit in your living room, it can be hidden away when not used, and more importantly they will be cheaper to make, stock, and transport. Flexible displays mean that heavy & expensive glass substrates can be replaced by economical polymer-based substrates. Cheaper plastic screens, not flexibility, is why Samsung plans to release one within the next year. Then there are logistics, right now, large screens that can weigh dozens of pounds are shipped from Asia, stocked in a warehouse and shipped to a retail location like Best Buy, Costco, Walmart, etc and then have to be transported to your home. A significant undertaking as size and weight increases, however, having a large screen rolled up like a projection screen means the display can be affordably shipped and stocked.
NHK wants 8K TVs to have 100° horizontal viewing angles: Currently, 1080p HDTV is around 30° viewing angle, and 4K will be 55° viewing angle . The prediction is as the access to larger screens increase, audiences viewing distance will remain the same as the dimensions of your home isn't as easily changed as a TV. Meaning that audiences will be better positioned to tell resolution differences. 8K by default is designed with cinema-style viewing angles in mind.
NHK believes that 8K/super-high resolution gives a 3-dimensional quality to an image: In many respects, its a large-screen version of Apple's Retina Display. Already, we have 5" screens with 1080p hitting the market (431 PPI). The same company has made an extreme version of this to test if you you can notice the difference of even finer resolution (651 PPI). NHK's logic is that super-high resolution imparts a 3D quality to an image, when mated with a 100° viewing angle will be more immersive than 3D, which is why they aren't working on a 3D broadcasting standard. AVSforum has a non-scientific simulation of 2K vs 4K vs 8K, it might be worth a look.
10/12-bit 8K@120fps is now a ITU standard: [Source]Several weeks ago, ITU made 8K a standard, rec.2020. MPEGLA will also make their next codec, H.265 HEVC codec, supports 8K resolutions and should be finalized in the next couple months. This new codec should also fit larger amounts of data in a smaller file size. NHK predicts this will mean 8K can be delivered in around 100 Mbps to the consumer. The current wired/wireless goal is 1Gbps for most homes by 2020. LTE Advanced has the goal-post of 1Gpbs as well (LTE means long-term evolution). Meaning, 8K video should be realistically deliverable in the next decade.
2020 and Beyond: NHK wants 8K to be the be-all end-all of standards. They want it to be a standard that can last not years, but DECADES. They don't want to be upgrading all the fundamental equipment some point in the future. Technology will get better, and they want the standard to not be outgrown by the technology itself. Which is why we have some pretty crazy specs, like 22.2 surround sound. They want these pie-in-the-sky standards to be the end-point, a goal post, for entertainment technology.
They want it so that every generation of displays, of cameras, of sound systems still can't catch the quality of 8K. By making the bar high, this actually helps device makers as each new device should have a noticeable leap in quality as the video itself should surpass the ability of new devices for a long time to come. It gives a very clear upgrade path which they hope will spur consumer spending on new devices.
Pie in the sky? Maybe. But they've sure sunk a lot of money and R&D into this.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/click_online/9774380.stm
UPDATED:
Looking into this a bit more. There are several long-term trends that NHK seems to be predicting:
TV screen sizes will become much larger: This is natural. When TV screens were first released they were merely 10" large in the 1930s, grew to 14" during the 1950s, then gradually 17, 19, 21" during the 1970s. By the 1990s, screen sizes grew to an average of 17" and then above 30" as the CRT approached its maximum size [Source, DOC file]. Today the average screen size topping 4-", and 60" screens are becoming dirt cheap (a few weeks ago they were in the $600 range [source]. Larger screens are becoming cheaper. 4K TV sets are coming out on 84", but eventually we should expect 100"+ screens to become approachable financially over the next couple decades. As presumably, they want 8K to be a broadcast standard to last decades, they clearly want to make a standard that can accommodate massive screen sizes (the 8K demos have been shown on a 145" screen).
Flexible displays will facilitate cheaper and larger displays: NHK seems to think that flexible displays will be the next great display technology. Instead of having massive screens made of glass, a roll-able screens, more like a retractable projection screen can be installed in the house. The benefits being a larger screen can fit in your living room, it can be hidden away when not used, and more importantly they will be cheaper to make, stock, and transport. Flexible displays mean that heavy & expensive glass substrates can be replaced by economical polymer-based substrates. Cheaper plastic screens, not flexibility, is why Samsung plans to release one within the next year. Then there are logistics, right now, large screens that can weigh dozens of pounds are shipped from Asia, stocked in a warehouse and shipped to a retail location like Best Buy, Costco, Walmart, etc and then have to be transported to your home. A significant undertaking as size and weight increases, however, having a large screen rolled up like a projection screen means the display can be affordably shipped and stocked.
NHK wants 8K TVs to have 100° horizontal viewing angles: Currently, 1080p HDTV is around 30° viewing angle, and 4K will be 55° viewing angle . The prediction is as the access to larger screens increase, audiences viewing distance will remain the same as the dimensions of your home isn't as easily changed as a TV. Meaning that audiences will be better positioned to tell resolution differences. 8K by default is designed with cinema-style viewing angles in mind.
NHK believes that 8K/super-high resolution gives a 3-dimensional quality to an image: In many respects, its a large-screen version of Apple's Retina Display. Already, we have 5" screens with 1080p hitting the market (431 PPI). The same company has made an extreme version of this to test if you you can notice the difference of even finer resolution (651 PPI). NHK's logic is that super-high resolution imparts a 3D quality to an image, when mated with a 100° viewing angle will be more immersive than 3D, which is why they aren't working on a 3D broadcasting standard. AVSforum has a non-scientific simulation of 2K vs 4K vs 8K, it might be worth a look.
10/12-bit 8K@120fps is now a ITU standard: [Source]Several weeks ago, ITU made 8K a standard, rec.2020. MPEGLA will also make their next codec, H.265 HEVC codec, supports 8K resolutions and should be finalized in the next couple months. This new codec should also fit larger amounts of data in a smaller file size. NHK predicts this will mean 8K can be delivered in around 100 Mbps to the consumer. The current wired/wireless goal is 1Gbps for most homes by 2020. LTE Advanced has the goal-post of 1Gpbs as well (LTE means long-term evolution). Meaning, 8K video should be realistically deliverable in the next decade.
2020 and Beyond: NHK wants 8K to be the be-all end-all of standards. They want it to be a standard that can last not years, but DECADES. They don't want to be upgrading all the fundamental equipment some point in the future. Technology will get better, and they want the standard to not be outgrown by the technology itself. Which is why we have some pretty crazy specs, like 22.2 surround sound. They want these pie-in-the-sky standards to be the end-point, a goal post, for entertainment technology.
They want it so that every generation of displays, of cameras, of sound systems still can't catch the quality of 8K. By making the bar high, this actually helps device makers as each new device should have a noticeable leap in quality as the video itself should surpass the ability of new devices for a long time to come. It gives a very clear upgrade path which they hope will spur consumer spending on new devices.
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They better make it wireless then 
