Academy Awards Best Picture - Know These New Rules Before You Start Production

NorBro said:
You have like this little complex/syndrome where you take bits & pieces and jump all over the place trying to frantically prove your points. Usually with links to graphs. Wasn't even finished talking about guns and I get sucked into New York's gentrification status.
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Try and keep up, NorBro. I don't have my crayons with me.

I didn't joke about the rappers so you can throw them back into my face as if I was saying they are more accurate than data.
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Right. You joked about rappers so you could pretend you were making a counterargument.


lol
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I did not invent the idea that death statistics are particularly reliable. This is what ChatGPT says about death statistics:

Death statistics are considered relatively accurate due to several reasons:
  1. Vital registration systems: Many countries have well-established vital registration systems that record births, deaths, and other vital events. These systems are often overseen by government agencies and require death certificates to be issued for each registered death. This process helps ensure that deaths are properly documented and recorded.
  2. Legal requirements: In many jurisdictions, it is a legal requirement to register deaths and obtain death certificates. This ensures that deaths are officially documented and accounted for. Failure to comply with these requirements can result in penalties, which encourages accurate reporting.
  3. Medical certification: When a person dies, a medical professional, such as a doctor, is typically responsible for certifying the cause of death. They examine the circumstances and medical history of the deceased to determine the cause and contribute to the accuracy of death statistics. Medical certifications undergo scrutiny and can be reviewed by other medical professionals for accuracy and consistency.
  4. Cause of death classification: International systems, such as the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD), provide standardized guidelines for classifying the cause of death. This uniformity helps ensure consistency and comparability in death statistics across different regions and countries.
  5. Epidemiological surveillance: Public health authorities and agencies often monitor death statistics as part of their surveillance systems. They analyze trends, patterns, and causes of death to identify public health issues, track disease outbreaks, and develop appropriate interventions. The importance of accurate data in this context encourages efforts to maintain the accuracy of death statistics.
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ha, I'm always up, baby boy!

Not a counterargument...those were song lyrics but you of course wouldn't have known that.

That's all I had for you after your corny Jay-Z reference because you are most definitively the softest crayon in the box and would crumble even in 2023 Bed-Stuy.
 
ahalpert said:
Was Matthew McConaughey full of **** then? I have no idea.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehil...be-identified-by-green-converse-sneakers/amp/
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If someone is shot in the face/head, then extensive outward physical damage can be done. But there are many factors involved, including the caliber, distance, angle/direction fired from, number of rounds hit, etc.

I’m not trying to cover every scenario that can happen or even specific scenarios. I’m just saying that most gunshot wounds don’t look like what people expect and are conditioned to expect from movies and TV. The same as how gunfire is portrayed to sound on movies and TV.
 
The last thing I'll say about it is that I think it's a huge quality of life issue. Like now we have active shooter drills in high schools. Never used to have those before. It used to just be fire drills.

Doug's sheriff is telling the citizens to arm themselves and maybe he thinks he's deputizing them or something but it's almost more like being in an arms race with your neighbors where you might be at a disadvantage if you're the only one without a gun, especially with the way Florida's stand your ground laws work which I think encourage escalation.

It's like terrorism, which never killed that many Americans but caused us to make major changes and spend big bucks.

3,066 Americans have been killed in terrorist attacks from 9/11/2001 through 12/31/2014,
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https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...8QFnoECBwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3JGkVLja-ZJsfwRAukPXe9

The US made several policy changes to combat terrorism following the 9/11 attacks. Most notably, it created the Department of Homeland Security, increased airport security, and went to war in Afghanistan.
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https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-americans-have-died-from-terrorist-attacks-since-911/
 
ahalpert said:
The last thing I'll say about it is that I think it's a huge quality of life issue. Like now we have active shooter drills in high schools. Never used to have those before. It used to just be fire drills.

Doug's sheriff is telling the citizens to arm themselves and maybe he thinks he's deputizing them or something but it's almost more like being in an arms race with your neighbors where you might be at a disadvantage if you're the only one without a gun, especially with the way Florida's stand your ground laws work which I think encourage escalation.

It's like terrorism, which never killed that many Americans but caused us to make major changes and spend big bucks.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...-ZJsfwRAukPXe9


https://usafacts.org/articles/how-ma...cks-since-911/
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Don’t forget Duck & Cover drills. What was the quality of life when you were taught that nuclear missiles could rain down from Russia at any minute?
 
Run&Gun said:
Don’t forget Duck & Cover drills. What was the quality of life when you were taught that nuclear missiles could rain down from Russia at any minute?
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I'm not sure how to process that analogy... but we spent a lot of money and effort on the cold war and rightly celebrated the fall of the USSR
 
Run&Gun said:
Don’t forget Duck & Cover drills. What was the quality of life when you were taught that nuclear missiles could rain down from Russia at any minute?
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Lol..ROFL, besides possibly you, I am probably the only one that lived through those drills, or retreated into the fallout shelters.
 
Tom Roper said:
Lol..ROFL, besides possibly you, I am probably the only one that lived through those drills, or retreated into the fallout shelters.
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I'm not sure of R&G's exact vintage, but I feel like he's younger Gen X and didn’t duck & cover drills peter out going into the 80s if not earlier? I mean, it's not like they were particularly useful... maybe they'd help if the bomb were far off and the shockwave was just breaking your windows and collapsing your roof

Thinking about nuclear scares and quality of life...can you imagine living through the Cuban missile crisis? The next time you take a breath, give thanks to "Vasili Arkhipov, who prevented escalation of the cold war by refusing to launch a nuclear torpedo against US forces." The 2 other senior officers in his sub wanted to launch their nuke when they mistakenly thought the Americans were attacking. But all 3 officers had to agree, and on that day Arkhipov may well have saved humanity by dissenting.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...-of-life-prize
 
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Duck and cover drills were over by the early sixties, and yes I lived through the Cuban missle crisis. I was too young to be in fear of it. All we knew was from the live televised presidential broadcast when JFK revealed pictures and warned the Soviet Union of full retaliation for any missle fired from Cuba. There was no Moscow hotline. It's known now that the only option available to JFK was full scale retaliation. America was not in panic, but fully resolved. Americans had enough of the bluster that was Krushchev beating his fists on the table at the United Nations, threatening to bury us and boasting they were producing nuclear tipped rockets like from a sausage making machine. But Krushchev was not a madman, may even have been a decent human but consumed with hubris and a peasant past. Both sides negotiated through back channels and the world stepped back from the brink. I would say America was a lot better prepared for the consequences then than now.
 
And lastly this, regarding the Florida sheriff advising residents to own a gun; this from the U.S. Census data and FBI UCR (Uniform Crime Reporting), comparing Florida to NY state, roughly similar land mass and population, i.e. similar population density, gun murder rate for FL is 1.26x greater than NY but gun ownership is 3.16x NY, so deaths per gun in NY is 2.48x FL.

Possible conclusions:
1.) NY shooters are more skillful marksmen
2.) NY percentage of bad people who own guns more than FLA
2.) More guns in FL (3.2x) doesn't translate to more gun deaths at scale.
 
Run&Gun said:
Honest question. Does this include deaths by police shootings or just civilians pulling the trigger?
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Police death by shooting by country.

Japan. A country where there's plenty of bad guys with guns. Hey Yakuza. It was two for 2018 (most recent I could find)

UK, where there are bad guys with guns too. It was 3 for 2019. Looks like it didn't help having most UK police not armed with guns. They still killed an extra person.

OK Australia, most often compared for how they totally changed their gun regs from US style after they had a big massacre in the 90's. It's four for 2017.

Norway, Sweden, both countries with liberal easy-ish gun laws. Police killed a single person in each country in 2017.

Then we look at the US. In 2020 it was nine hundred and forty six people. Pretty statistically big difference.

The US is below El Salvador at 1087 and above Nigeria at 841. There are only 5 countries above the US that have more and they are all third world countries.

I won't bother posting the links because apparently gun violence statistics are made up. We Americans don't want to accept the terrible price we pay every day for our love of firearms, especially the more lethal ones.

I dare someone to say it's because we have more bad guys / it's just mental health / we need more guns for good guys / arm the teachers / you can't compare America because we're different to everywhere else on the planet blah blah blah. Any excuse you can to not acknowledge the fact that America has a lot more guns than anywhere else on the planet by a huge margin and we often use them on each other and no-one wants to do anything to change that. It's farcical to argue the stats between NY and FL when BOTH numbers are so out of whack to anywhere else that isn't a literal war zone.
 
Tom Roper said:
Lol..ROFL, besides possibly you, I am probably the only one that lived through those drills, or retreated into the fallout shelters.
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I was just throwing it out there. I started elementary school in the early 80's. I don't think we ever had a Duck & Cover drill for nuclear attack, but I remember the constant similar drills for tornado's.
 
Same here. I grew up in Utah and the Chicago suburbs in the 1970s. Never had a nuclear drill, but once-a-year tornado drills were normal in Illinois.
 
Tom Roper said:
And lastly this, regarding the Florida sheriff advising residents to own a gun; this from the U.S. Census data and FBI UCR (Uniform Crime Reporting), comparing Florida to NY state, roughly similar land mass and population, i.e. similar population density, gun murder rate for FL is 1.26x greater than NY but gun ownership is 3.16x NY, so deaths per gun in NY is 2.48x FL.

Possible conclusions:
1.) NY shooters are more skillful marksmen
2.) NY percentage of bad people who own guns more than FLA
2.) More guns in FL (3.2x) doesn't translate to more gun deaths at scale.
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I had trouble verifying these numbers and I saw some conflicting data which, if I can clarify, I will bring to the table.

But I'd just say for starters that I thought the thesis was that increased gun ownership would lead to a safer community in absolute terms (and not in terms of homicides per gun owner). So, if there is a positive correlation between gun ownership and gun homicides, it would undermine the case for universal gun ownership.
 
I haven't said that. NY only has 32% as much gun ownership as FLA but 79% as many gun murders, per capita.

- Population - Gun Murders - Gun Ownership - Gun Murders per 100,000

FLA - 19,687,653 - 669 - 32.5% - 3.4
NY - 19,378,102 - 517 -10.3% - 2.7
 
Tom Roper said:
I haven't said that. NY only has 32% as much gun ownership as FLA but 79% as many gun murders, per capita.

- Population - Gun Murders - Gun Ownership - Gun Murders per 100,000

FLA - 19,687,653 - 669 - 32.5% - 3.4
NY - 19,378,102 - 517 -10.3% - 2.7
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The numbers I see are 19.9% gun ownership in NY and 35.3% in FL. So, 1.77x as many gun owners in FL.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/st...rship-by-state

And according to the CDC, there are an average of 1,057 gun homicides in FL annually, a rate of 5.5 per 100k people (averaged from 2016-2020).

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...hZCuozLb8YTI3H

402 gun homicides in NY on average annually, a rate of 2.1 per 100k people. Figures also from the CDC, also averaged from 2016-2020.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...B53bFanh6Z-nvn

Ergo Florida has 2.62x as many gun homicides per 100k people per year despite having only 1.77x as many gun owners.
 
One thing I think we could, at least should agree on, is that more than 50-62% gun deaths nationally are the result of suicide. You seem unwilling to acknowledge a mental health crisis at the root of it. And even if we agreed that a legal determination of mentally ill is a high standard to meet, red flag laws are not and many states have them.
 
Mental health crisis?

It is same all over the planet. Mental health is no worse in the USA. It is just that guns are everywhere so it is easier and more lethal to kill yourself on a whim.
 
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