How was business in 2023?

[QuickHitRecord]

As a freelance videographer/DP, 2023 has been an exceptionally weak year in terms of income for me. I think I'll have made about 2/3 of what I took in last year. I'm usually booked solid between September and the end of the year. This year, I've barely had anything. This seems to be a common thread amongst several of my video colleagues across the country, as well as a few working professionals with YouTube channels that I follow. I've also heard from some graphic designer friends that it's also been a disappointing year. I'm curious to know what others here have experienced. Is this a result of the "AI reckoning" that we've all been hearing about? If it's a common thread here as well, maybe we can put our heads together to understand the reasons.

 

[NorBro]

If you're still working in this business as a freelancer and haven't been completely replaced by tech or in-house fresh college grads where "video production" is part of their job description in a job that has nothing to do with video production then I'd say you're doing very well under the universal circumstances (seriously).

I hope it picks up for you in 2024!

 

[Bassman2003]

Things were fine in my world but I see the trends all over the place. The collective wisdom is being programmed into everything media and it is going to cost a lot of jobs and need for us. The amount of processing inside a phone these days for an image is what we the "experts" used to do in Lightroom etc... That is just a small example. This all leads to a plentiful commodity environment where what we do is less special.

So how do we become more special or provide services that are special is what we need to put our heads together on imho.

 

[NorBro]

More advanced computing; anything to do with computers and screens and machines and processes.

I know, I know...not enough life left to start over.

Fortunately holding and moving around a camera will still be viable for current us until expiration, but there is no way this is a career in the future.

The position will have completely run its course like horse-and-wagon in almost all places of life when robots are eventually introduced into society and toddlers are coding by 6 months (that's the post-production part).

 

[Run&Gun]

I can’t really complain about this year as a whole. December has been dead-as-a-doornail with only two days, but a large part of that is because our NFL team is beyond horrible(with no real signs that next season will be any better) and regular season college football ends at the beginning of December. Some of us got hosed with the way the CFP shook out this year. If Georgia or FSU had made it, I was on hold for a couple of days with both of my Arri’s. And had a single day multi-cam that was slated right before Christmas that got bagged about two weeks out. If all of that had happened, I would have called it a good December. But if ‘24 is at least as good as ‘23, I’ll be happy.

 

[CharlesPapert]

My last paid shooting day was in April. Have kept income trickling in via equipment rentals. Selling off large chunks of my camera and support package as well. Changes afoot.

 

[Publimix]

The market is saturated I guess, with 720,000 hours of video are uploaded every day to YouTube. 'Videographers' use their phones, and that works, tiktok and youtube is a goldmine for dropshippers and influencers, cheap and fast.

 

[ahalpert]

As a freelance videographer/DP, 2023 has been an exceptionally weak year in terms of income for me. I think I'll have made about 2/3 of what I took in last year. I'm usually booked solid between September and the end of the year. This year, I've barely had anything. This seems to be a common thread amongst several of my video colleagues across the country, as well as a few working professionals with YouTube channels that I follow. I've also heard from some graphic designer friends that it's also been a disappointing year. I'm curious to know what others here have experienced. Is this a result of the "AI reckoning" that we've all been hearing about? If it's a common thread here as well, maybe we can put our heads together to understand the reasons.

I doubt this is the AI reckoning. At least, I haven't heard of anyone yet doing AI instead of a video shoot. (Photo shoots, yes.) Here's a piece of "stock" I tried to generate for a recent edit, a shot of a long jumper tying his spikes. I did this in RunwayML: https://app.runwayml.com/creation/8d...0-f7f818b86537

My guess is that the biggest reason is the slowdown in ad spending and revenue. But it sort of depends on what work you do.

The strikes were probably another contributing factor because of ripple effects both in terms of labor demand (fewer BTS or event videos) and labor supply (someone on the broadcast crew of a recent christies auction approached me and asked me how to get into freelance camera work. He said he usually works on union commercials (I'm not sure in what role) but that this year was dead.)

Then there are macro level issues such as rising interest rates. Even though we didn't tip into recession, the whole point of raising interest rates is to slow growth and curtail investment. It tends to slow down grown investments. For example, I can get over 5% on a regular savings account right now, totally risk-free.

That's probably the biggest factor to the steep YOY decline in sales revenue at Christie's auction house. (plus the fact that they had a massive sale last year of Paul Allen's collection.) I compared their numbers this year to 2019, adjusted for inflation, and they're only off by about 10%. Nevertheless, I got a smaller raise this year than I wanted and they're talking about tightening their belt next year, probably in the form of working with less crew and shorter shooting and editing schedules.

They already do a segment of their production using iPhone, by the social media department. But I don't see that expanding beyond a certain level because it doesn't look that impressive, and they're running a high end luxury brand. The real savings of using an iPhone comes from hiring an unskilled operator. There's a limit to what you can accomplish that way.

Overall, I voluntarily accepted about 15% less work this year and, due to raises, made about 5% less. (I would have kept work at the same level but my wife wasn't going to let me keep working myself into the ground during the busy season now that now that we own our own home and have reestablished our emergency fund.)

It's easy to see a reduction in revenue next year from Christie's, probably in the 15-20% range. I've heard from wedding studios that there are fewer bookings for next year (though 2022/2023 were a bumper crop due to pandemic postponements, so a decline was inevitable). I work for enough studios and have faced so many scheduling conflicts for weddings that I don't think I'll shoot fewer weddings next year.

As for my other clients -- non-profits, independent producers etc -- I don't think I've seen a decline. Most of those are kind of insulated from the real economy.

I panicked early about AI and I think some of the concern was overblown. I think the primary effect will be marginal decreases in workdays. But my conclusions are still valid: producers will be the big winners.

My general approach now is the same as always. Keep expenses low, save as much as possible, increase my value to the client in every way possible, and don't buy gear I don't really need.

I think you want to try to find out what's going on with your particular clients to see why they've pulled back and plan accordingly.

 

[ahalpert]

My last paid shooting day was in April. Have kept income trickling in via equipment rentals. Selling off large chunks of my camera and support package as well. Changes afoot.

Isn't that partly just because of the strikes? And then, I would think that your line of work would be hit doubly hard by the ad slowdown and by the slowdown in streaming/linear TV. But I would think that some of that is temporary because viewer demand is robust

For example, FASTs are expected to be the big winners in streaming. And they're going to need lots of both main content and ads

 

[ahalpert]

.

So how do we become more special or provide services that are special is what we need to put our heads together on imho.

Dunno, but I feel like basic talking heads are easy to do with ok results with an iPhone. So, focus elsewhere maybe?

 

[Doug Bee]

Awful.

I just landed my first job having not worked since April.

Streaming is a dead model. It meant the strike was really a nail in a coffin that was already on fire.

I guess we are seeing FAST or Free Advertising Supported Television come to the fore and some Advertising supported on demand (Roku,Tubi)

The tech companies can not figure out to make money with TV. Netflix is surviving by its weight of global subscriber numbers and by making content in other language markets. Korea is hot right now.

 

[CharlesPapert]

Isn't that partly just because of the strikes? And then, I would think that your line of work would be hit doubly hard by the ad slowdown and by the slowdown in streaming/linear TV. But I would think that some of that is temporary because viewer demand is robust

Of course the strikes were a significant part of it, but I've been in a slowdown for much longer than that, which has given me the opportunity to look ahead and plot the course I want to take from now until retirement. To be announced soon.

 

[cyclone]

I don't completely agree. Because everyone is now shooting and cutting (some good, most very bad), I would use that dwindling time to continue shooting and editing for our clients that know/care what good production values are (before they all vanish) and use that time to extend ourselves into different disciplines (psychology, sociology, political science, etc.), using our production experience as a tool that sets us apart getting a job in those new fields. I am working on getting my foot in the door of children's psychology, using production to get people to take meetings with me and then realize that production can further their disciplines. I have some promising leads; but I do believe that production is changing forever and most of us have to get out while we can. Not depressing really...if you realize that you have a skill that you can apply in other fields.

 

[NorBro]

I agree with you and the above thought-process is more melodramatic than anything else.

If one is alive and well, there's always time; even an hour to learn something, anything - a little, a lot, barely anything. Data in the brain.

___

As far as skill...a skill is a skill and how could any skill do more harm than good, right?

In your case, if you happen to use video production to get meetings with children's psychology companies in which some might also be interested in maybe creating a YouTube channel dedicated to something they do (that's possibly in the back of their minds when they put your resume to the side, take your call) then that's amazing, how could it not be. Enhance your life.

Problem is...this skill isn't once what it was.

Back-in-the-day, turning on a monitor that most people called a computer and using Microsoft Word was a skill. Think about how the perception of that skill/task - now available in many different applications - has changed.

We're not there yet but eventually here's what I envision:

Joe, 45, videographer-editor-business owner: And I do video production on the side. I know different types of software as well.

Jane, 25, hiring manager: Oh, that's so cool. Yeah, our boss' nephew just made us a commercial that we use all over North America. He used something called iCommercial on the iPhone 20: It's so intuitive; you just type in words and it creates dozens of different videos for you in seconds. And they look so real!

 

[NorBro]

Joe, 45, videographer-editor-business owner: But what about original video production...don't you need someone to film the employees and what not?

Jane, 25, hiring manager: Oh, yeah, that app also has facial recognition manipulation 2.1b zeta 30245.

It recreated thousands of versions of every one of our employees. That meeting acceptance package you received from our recruiting assistants talking was totally fake! Like a hologram or something.

Anyway, thank you for coming in, Jack!

lol

 

[ahalpert]

My gut instinct is that 2024 will be a better year than 2023 due to an assortment of macroeconomic factors including the taming of inflation, the anticipated cutting of interest rates, the end of the strikes, and the election season and its impact on advertising.

Headwinds of unknown severity include the transition to iphone- and AI-production. But i think we've already incorporated some of the effect of the iphone. And I think the impact of AI will be more delayed and less severe than first anticipated, albeit with more drastic effects on some types of production than others.

 

[ahalpert]

The tech companies can not figure out to make money with TV. Netflix is surviving by its weight of global subscriber numbers and by making content in other language markets. Korea is hot right now.

It's interesting (in a macabre way) how big tech consistently ruins healthy industries. Basically they come in and offer an amazing new product at an incredible price. But it's all smoke and mirrors, predicated on their ability to run huge losses for years thanks to their access to capital markets.

The endgame is always to push their competitors out of business so they can charge whatever they want to, because the fact is that the underlying costs and revenue potential of the business are the same with or without tech.

Taxis are the perfect example. My understanding is that ubers now cost as much as regular taxis, and most cab companies now have a way to book a taxi via an app or online.

This cycle damages industries in a lasting way by conditioning customers to expect an unsustainable value for their business. And now people won't want to spend as much on streaming and entertainment as they did before on cable TV even if they're getting more for their money.

I mean, there's no reason why streaming should be an unsustainable business model. But they set their prices too low and ask for too short of a commitment from the customer.

 

[QuickHitRecord]

Some interesting posts in here.

NorBro, I'm curious to know in what field you ended up after leaving production. I've been mulling this question over for years and I can't think of anything that I would rather do than what I am currently doing. However, I'm not under any illusion that it is sustainable in the long-term, and having just turned 40 I feel like I need to decide on my next career move ASAP -- or just stay put and probably be forced out eventually.

Charles, it's hard to imagine someone of your talents and network not keeping a full calendar. That should be a big red flag to the rest of us.

Bassman, I am confident that we still offer real value but the perceptions seem to be shifting. Many, or even most, of my clients have joined the "good enough" mindset. When they are directing, we rarely do more than two takes (or three, max). If I'm directing, I have no problem going 6-8. This may also have to do with modern attention spans.

RunNGun, sounds like a lot of letdowns this month but glad that things are still looking good.

Abe, I appreciate the in-depth analysis and I'm glad that you aren't experiencing the drop that some are. Weddings are probably about as secure a niche as there is right now. I don't do weddings, but I've thought of leaning more into documentaries. The problem is that I've never been paid much for the doc work I've done. I can't imagine making a living on it.

I had coffee with Daniel, aka FilmGuy123 who used to be a regular here. He has consistently been a step ahead of me at every key point in my career. Now, he's moving away from freelance production to start a new YouTube channel. But while I can see him having success being on camera, I can't picture that for myself.

What I see is this: I've now spent 15 years continuously trying to improve on this craft and certainly during my freelance life, living on lower wages than almost any of my peer group. The trade off was a profession that I enjoyed practicing and continuing to learn about, even though in recent years I couldn't help but feel like I was just adding to the cacophony of video content. The idea of rejoining the ranks of the 9-5 employees as an entry-level position with entry-level pay while working on something that I'm not actually interested in is filling me with existential dread.

I've been staring at this diagram a lot lately:



Supposedly, finding a way to put yourself in the middle as far as your work goes is the recipe for a truly happy life.

I'm usually pretty good at puzzles, but I haven't cracked this one yet.

 

[NorBro]

I'm figuring it out and will let you know when I do, lol.

P.S. Where do you see DLD in your responses?

___

As far as the diagram, I don't know if every aspect on there would find itself in every life/job.

Usually there are heavy tradeoffs but I think a lot of money, especially in short periods of time, is something that always wins.

A few million in a year or two to have some financial security while any other reasoning is worked on.

 

[QuickHitRecord]

Somehow I mistook RunNGun for DLD, who I know has been missing in action. I hope he's doing alright after his diagnosis.

I'm more of a lurker than a regular poster but I'm familiar with the usual suspects at DVX.

Ironically, I am working on a video right now in which my client used AI to write a script, and then deepfake to generate voiceovers. But they still need a real human to edit it. At least for now.